Quote from: paxmao on August 10, 2023, 11:04:44 PM

Quote from: 1miau on August 10, 2023, 05:49:33 PM

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Quote from: paxmao on August 10, 2023, 10:42:03 AM

Bottom line, there is no proof. My personal view - Russia most likely did it. My guess is that Ukraine would not damage infrastructure that mostly benefits Germany - an ally - and could stop EU aid if detected. Yes, I will write it again, the NS benefited mostly Germany.

It not even benefitted Germany anymore. When the pipelines were blown up, Germany had decided to abandon Russian gas, so all the pipelines would have been unseless anyways even if they'd still exist.
Also important to note, that 2 pipelines of NS1 were blown up but only 1 pipeline of NS2. 1 pipeline from NS2 is still intact.
And - no surprise - shortly after the explosions, Putin suggested to open the remaining NS2 pipeline.

Putin offers Europe gas through Nord Stream 2 - DW - 10/12/2022

Quote

The Russian leader offered to resume gas supplies through parts of the pipelines that weren't damaged by explosions last month.

Not suspicious, that one pipeline is still intact and Putin wants to start his NS2 project to keep Germany dependent and fund his russian war machine - not suspicious at all.

A few interesting points here:

- Germany decided not to use Russian gas before the war? I do not think so, in fact they have lobbied in the EU to decide that gas "is green".

Germany just decided due to the war to abandon Russian gas.
Before the war, Germany was like "Well, Putin is a bit strange and not democratic at all but maybe Putin will improve and cheap gas is nice". Gas from Russia wasn't popular but it was cheap. And that's why NordStream 2 was built.
The opinion about Russian gas changed massively, when Putin invaded Ukraine. Putin showed for everyone that he can't be trusted. His obvious lies ahead and during his "special operation", his war crimes and Putin even threatened to halt gas exports if Germany doesn't pay in Rubles, a demand Putin set up himself in 2022. By then, Germany's only problem was to get enough gas for the next winter (Putin's plan to "freeze Germany / Europe", like mentioned by suchmoon here (where Putin failed miserably as well Cheesy

))
Regarding his "gas to Germany" strategy, Putin miscalculated big time, that much more German politicians would be currupt or "Putinfriends" like our ex chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Putin calculated that his corrupt politicians won't decide to stop gas imports and don't delieer weapons to Ukraine. But turned out for Putin, that his bought politicians were not enough.
Germany decided to ditch Russian gas and even to deliever weapons to Ukraine.

Quote from: paxmao on August 10, 2023, 11:04:44 PM

- Germany would be fine with returning to use RF gas. I know, it seems impossible today, but I give 1 year after a permanent cease fire to go back to cheap energy.

Some politicians would, for sure. But Putin's activity of buying currupt politicians has shifted massively to far-right AfD (and also still "Die Linke" (far left)). Moving forward, purchasing Russian gas again, will be extremely unpopular in Germany, especially because one of the key mistakes of German politics was to rely too much on Russian gas. Getting (almost) independent from other countries (no single point of failure) is a very popular political position in Germany now.
And a party advocating for the opposite would face enourmous criticism to repeat the same mistakes from pre-2022 again.
Putin has lost most of his support among German politicians due to his war against Ukraine. Many pro-russian networks of curruption were exposed and dismantled.

Quote from: paxmao on August 10, 2023, 11:04:44 PM

- Germany does not depend on the Russian gas, in the same sense that I do not depend on the cheapest restaurant around to eat. It is just the cheapest, as long as they do not go on an invading spree.

Yes, Germany's "problem" was mainly rising gas prices due to such a big percentage of gas coming from Russia. This is now solved since Putin hasn't any leverage here anymore.

After all, the only thing Putin's war achieved so far is a big miscalculation, where he has lost most European countries as a gas importer. Cheesy