Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 17, 2014, 07:29:56 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 17, 2014, 02:20:14 PM

Quote from: Lohoris on April 17, 2014, 01:14:35 PM

Quote from: jonald_fyookball on April 17, 2014, 12:44:17 PM

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

No, sorry.

In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.

Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption?

In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases.

How many people have not heard about Bitcoin? I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is. Only a couple people have even heard about it. One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it. I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech." I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness. But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet. I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.