Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 19, 2023, 11:14:28 PM

Quote from: gallianooo on August 19, 2023, 09:11:52 PM

Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».

I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).

However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?

- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.

Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.

AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).

And, without enter in the detail, traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.

So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.

DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, except for your seemingly smug "I told you so" tone, as if you really know anything more than anyone else, are you going to try to say that you got the bottom right from last year? $15,479, remember?

Or do you want to say the current bottom of $15,479 is not in?

It seems that you are not necessarily going that far, but surely if BTC prices end up going down to some amount below our current local correction of $25,601, then you are surely going to want to say I told you so. But how far are you going to call now?

Sub $22k? or sub $20k? or some other number?

I am not even going to try to enter any bet with you because I have already learned my lesson regarding your weasliness and disingenuineness when it comes to actually putting money on the line, and you seem to either think that a large amount needs to be bet, or you are just using those kinds of large amounts as a way to play the weasel.. .. anyhow.. not a bad post, otherwise... even though there are some of the characterization things that I don't really agree with.. but not really any big deal.. might just be stylistic in terms of attempting to support directional prediction variance that might exist between you and me.

Please JJG, we talked more than enough in the past regarding the bet. You can scroll up all our conversation. I wanted to bet for a ‘significative’ amount, not ‘peanuts’. You asked for time but didn’t get back then (and waiting more time help you to see where the market goes..). I don’t have the exact number, but I think you were able to bet than BTC will never go below 16Kish. But stop on it, enough talked about it, and too late now. Useless.

Regarding my last post, I didn’t say I know more than everybody, I just exposed facts since 2 years and you seem globally agree. We can be right, we can be wrong but according to these facts, any ‘early’ BTC investor/believer cannot be really surprise IMHO.

Based on the BTC history + timing + oversold and FTX collapse, I would say there is High chance than the bottom is in.
But to know if we will DEFINITELY bounce from 25Kish or if we will visit again 20/22K or even 16/18K for some (quick) moments, ofc nobody can know. Large target could be between 16 and 30K for some more months. That’s why DCA from there can be a good balance risk/reward till the REAL up.