Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 07:13:46 AM

Quote from: Furious 7 on August 22, 2023, 09:44:19 PM

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Got it, We should do DCA for the long run and for the short term we should do lump sum because I have found one calculator to calculate what results we might get if we have done lump sum or DCA. Well, here is the site Not trying to promote it here instead sharing for info only. https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

Well, I have got some results by entering some dates and in the last 6 months we make profit only if we have done lump sum but by doing DCA we might lose the asset's value. The thing is, accumulating is all matter as you said so I think I am agree with you.

Some of those pro-lump sum arguments presume too much about people having lump sums that are available and able to be invested at strategic times, and I have certainly had a lot of arguments with many members about these kinds of comparisons, and one area of my arguments tend to hone upon the fact that people likely are much better off to do DCA both in the sense that they don't have lump sums of money available and if they try to fuck around with waiting or timing their investments in order to carry out lump sums, then they would be more likely to spend too much time waiting and spend less time putting money into bitcoin.

Sure once they have already established a bit of a bitcoin stash over 2-5 years, then maybe they can start to let off on the DCA and attempt to be more strategic in terms of timing their buys, whether that would be considered buying on dips or lump sum buying.

And, let's revisit some variation of the example that I had given earlier. Let's say that someone had been buying bitcoin for 18 months and employing some variations of DCA and perhaps some variations of that, and maybe during those 18 months they had been spending about $100 to $300 per month (so maybe an average of $200 per month), so that would mean that they had already invested about $3600 into BTC.

If such a person all of a sudden got some kind of an extra cash flow that is $1,200 dollars, then that person is going to have a lump sum that is then available to him/her and s/he is going to have to decide between the 3 categories regarding how to divide it up, and I think that the default position would be to divide it equally into $400 for each category - however, no one can really decide if the default position of dividing it equally would be the best or if some other way of dividing it might be preferable - so likely more details are going to need to be known, and who is going to know those details besides the individual (and by the way view of what the bitcoin price is going to do happens to ONLY be one of the criteria that individuals should be attempting to account for when making those kinds of BTC accumulation strategy choices).

Quote from: Rabata on Today at 08:30:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 16, 2023, 04:17:57 PM

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I am optimistic long-term prospect with Bitcoin. Perhaps I can achieve a good profit starting from next year since a potential halving is anticipated. I aim to extend my holding period further. While my Bitcoin holdings may be relatively small, I can potentially gain more rewards over the long run. If I had not invested in Bitcoin, I might have kept that money in a bank. I'm uncertain about how much return the bank could offer me. Inflation has increased, and the government has also raised account maintenance charges. So, there is no possibility of earning any significant returns by keeping money in bank. I am looking to keep my Bitcoin for the long term, with the hope of achieving good returns. I have faith in Bitcoin because when the bitcoin price was less than 10 thousand, I didn't invest in it. I also refrained from purchasing Bitcoin during its last bull market peak. I can't predict exactly how my investment will turn out in terms of profit when the specified time comes to an end. The Bitcoin price might not increase as per my expectations but I am not overly concerned about it because what I believe is that at some point, it will turn bullish and this is the strength of mine. However, looking at the current price, I am holding a bullish outlook and have confidently made an investment decision.

There is nothing to disagree with in your statement, and part of the reason that bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet to the upside is that whatever amount that you choose to invest into bitcoin, the most that you can lose is all of it, but there are also potentials that you may well be able to profit from it.. and even earn more than you would investing in other places and there are also quite grand upside possible scenarios that are not guaranteed, but there is nothing wrong with the conclusion that bitcoin is amongst the best of asymmetric bets that are currently wide-spread available (if not the best).

Each of us has a choice whether or not to have some kind of bitcoin allocation and we also have choices about how much of a stake to take, within our own capacities to accomplish such stake without overdoing it in such a way that we end up losing it because we had over done it.

We know that there continue to be an overwhelmingly large number of people who either have no bitcoin stake or a very low bitcoin stake, and that's surely there choice, even if many of us already into bitcoin and studying bitcoin speculate that more and more people are likely going to be getting into bitcoin, whether they currently want to or currently think it is a good idea or not... which is likely to ongoingly reward those who came to those kinds of decisions and made those kinds of investment choices sooner.. and sure it sounds like pumping some kind of Ponzi scheme.. even though it the truth of the matter with a sound money and scarce asset like bitcoin, the earliest of adopters are likely to be rewarded and they likely don't even necessarily need to have super high stakes in bitcoin in order to likely disproportionately benefit from getting into bitcoin...

so even though there are no guarantees, it is good to recognize and appreciated the asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin and likely to emphasize accumulating it rathe than strategizing and/or figuring out points in which to sell it (once you got some of it). .. but hey everyone is free to make their own choices regarding how to think about these kinds of matters and how much of a stake, if any, to take into bitcoin including points in which they might consider selling it.. which might end up being too much too soon.. so careful with those kinds of actions, once you already are accumulating BTC.

Quote from: bitLeap on Today at 10:51:48 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 22, 2023, 10:27:19 PM

Quote from: red4slash on August 22, 2023, 07:10:49 PM

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan.

In the last day since I made that responsive post, I had been thinking about my own practices over the years, and there surely have been times and areas in which I am either buying or selling (setting ladders) that I am consistent in terms of the amounts and also in terms of the increments, but a lot of factors can come to play that cause us to reconsider the extent to which consistency (which might be a kind of default set up) is actually helping us to balance out where we happen to be at any particular time in our bitcoin accumulation journey or even if we might be further down the road in more of a maintenance location.

Sometimes we might be attempting to recreate some kind of balance that might have come from something that we did.. maybe we sold too much or we bought too much or we might have money on various exchanges and in cold wallets, and we might be engaging in practices to move from one location to another, so sometimes we can sell at one location and buy at another location in order to attempt to achieve our balances, which also might have arbitrage opportunties, yet I am not even necessarily referring to taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities but instead moving value from one place to another. I am a bit reluctant to get too far off topic here.. so maybe I will just leave it at that for now, unless someone might want an example in order to better understand these kinds of rebalancing ideas... that might be employed with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum strategies...

Quote from: bitLeap on Today at 10:51:48 AM

To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.

That happens to me quite a bit... and that is one of the advantages of already projecting out your cashflows in advance so you can see exactly how much you may have allocated for certain things, and if you have some flexibilities in your incoming or outgoing amounts, you will already know from which areas that you might take from first, second third, and then pretty soon you might have had some plans about some amounts that were strict, but then you realize that it is better that you reduce your DCA or maybe even bring it down to zero for a certain period of time than to resort to some other less preferable actions, which might be selling some asset that you do not want to sell, including but not limited to BTC... there should be an order to these things that you have mostly already thought through and you have some ideas about how flexible you are able to be in light of how well you have planned it out and maintained some flexibilities in your system.

Quote from: bitLeap on Today at 10:51:48 AM

For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.

Exactly. You can have strictness and flexibility going on at the same time... even if you have set aside $400 per month and/or $100 per week for BTC buys, you might already know that there is going to be some variance in that amount, but then you might even tell yourself that "no matter what (within reason)" I am going to at least buy $10 per week.

Quote from: bitLeap on Today at 10:51:48 AM

Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

These are not easy to know in the moment and frequently it takes experience to better understand boundaries (or thresholds) that we might have, and if we might have gone too far in something that goes from being aggressive and/or assertive and into the lands of gambling. .., and it can sometimes be o.k. to cross over into some places that we might not want to go, but we have to realize also whether we might still be able to achieve some of the same desires for risks or whatever, but just take a bit of a smaller position size for that particular part of what we might be trying to do.. for example, we might go over budget on something or we might even decide to be overly whimpy on something... but if we think about why we are doing it and what are the consequences, then at least we have potentially been able to get some of the benefits of modifying what we had thought that we were going to do, but to modify it in such a way that accounts how much of a position we using in order to take those actions.