Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 12:23:00 AM

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between [ the number of active wallets ] and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014... You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more, we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T). I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).

I agree with you that there can be a large number of variables, and some of the variables are 1) clearly and unambiguously connected, 2) likely connected, 3) likely not connected and 4) clearly NOT connected.

The mere fact that you may have NOT have seen any scintilla of evidence of a connection during your selected period of time, does NOT mean that the logical conclusion is that N(T) and P(T) are clearly NOT connected. The explanation can be that there are larger overriding forces at play during that period of time that are interfering with the connection with N(T) and P(T).

Great attempt to send this topic out on a wild goose chase, but neither of us have provided data to rebutt a claim of a connection or NOT; however, the claim sure as hell makes sense to me that if you get an increased number of users of bitcoin, then the price is likely going to go up with the increased number of users. Even though wallets are NOT a direct measurement of users, it is a good enough approximation of there being an increase in the number of users... which will likely have a direct correlating positive effect on BTC prices (at least that seems to be the theory that Aminorex was postulating).

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth. Wink

Again, you seem to be striving to take this on some wild goose chase by making some extreme example.... However, your extreme example seems to work against you and to support my argument about what you are doing by your time selectivity.

Let me see if I can use the same example to help to clarify the point.

You are correct that if we compare the USA economy over 600 years to the last 6 months in order to make some kind of a point, then that point is going to be lost b/c a lot has gone on in 600 years that may or may NOT be helpful.

I am merely telling you that it is NOT a good idea to continue to begin from the top of the bubble to make your repetitive points. I think that you are doing it on purpose in order to communicate about jibberish... and maybe I should NOT be entertaining you (or as they say feeding the trolls). Certainly, you seem smart enough to know better and to pick some more meaningful time period, instead of trying to exaggerate to the max... when you exaggerate to the max, then you lose any sense of credibility or objectivity in my reading.. and you are also distracting and confusing others who may NOT realize the extent of your selectivity in making your supposedly academic points. I have NO idea about whether you are really a professor, like you claim to be, yet certainly, you seem to be doing much disservice to academics by projecting yourself as such in the bitcoin sphere... you frequently take the posters in this thread away from actual facts with your skewed and seemingly disingenuous spins that are subtle enough to sometimes miss b/c frequently, your presentations are packaged with a decent and comprehensive organization.. with good English...

I would imagine if you really are a professor in Brazil, then you teach in portuguese, not in english.. so how come your english is so good?

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM

Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective... YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December. But it is not my fault, is it? You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess. Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes? Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?

First of all.. why did you edit out some of the text of my earlier post?

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Third: You are correct that I am frustrated by the ongoing downtrend in BTC prices since December, but my frustration about BTC prices downtrending is NOT a motivation for me to comment upon your post(s). Overall, I feel pretty comfortable that my investment strategy is going to pay off fairly lucratively - even though I am putting more time into monitoring and tweaking my investment plan b/c of the various aspects of the BTC price performance since December 2013. You know that in the end, my time will likely pay off pretty well too.. b/c I have accumulated way more bitcoins than I had expected that I would be able to accumulate... ... anyhow, time will tell about my bitcoin investment, and I am NOT too worried yet.. even though I remain a bit frustrated.. as you mentioned.

The rest of your content here.. is merely humor that is seemly directed at my expense. I did find it quite a bit funny, even though irrelevant, and NOT really applicable to me, but still fairly artfully presented... so yes, made me chuckle a little bit at getting some misdirected attention. Cheesy