Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 18, 2014, 04:16:26 AM

Quote from: Mk2vr6 on April 18, 2014, 01:43:25 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 18, 2014, 01:27:30 AM

Quote from: Post-Cosmic on April 18, 2014, 12:55:32 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

Agreed, it's a beauty!
Might reduce bitcoin volatility by itself if stickied in newb section Grin

.

No because the masses of 'newbies' causing volatility, if any, are located in the Middle Kingdom by the Yellow Sea.. 1,000,000,000 population to have bitcoiners from....