Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:55:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 05, 2023, 06:11:41 PM

Quote from: Odohu on September 05, 2023, 08:19:46 AM

Quote from: Sayeds56 on September 04, 2023, 12:40:44 AM

Your cautious yet optimistic stance regarding possibility of significant increase in Bitcoin price is quite understandable. As an informed and experienced Bitcoin investor you are well aware of that predicting future price of Bitcoin is very challenging task. Various factors, such as regulatory developments, general state of global economy and prevailing monetary policies, can impact all risky assets including Bitcoin.

If you treat Bitcoin like a treasure worth holding, your mindset will significantly change. First, you will be more focused on accumulating more of it rather than bothering about the price. Indeed, it is very emotionally draining to be worried about Bitcoin price. From personal experience, one tend to look more on the price of Bitcoin when one is so curious about quick profits and not long term HODL. On the other hand, having a futuristic mindset with Bitcoin will eliminate this burden of looking at price always because the focus will be on how to accumulate certain quantity of Bitcoin by a certain year. This is where DCA comes in and am happy a lot of people are already applying same thereby eliminating some of the psychological burden that comes with buying Bitcoin without a well-thought out plan.

Quote from: Sayeds56 on September 04, 2023, 12:40:44 AM

Nevertheless, we can reasonably anticipate that there are favourable odds for significant price appreciation in 2024, which marks the year of Bitcoin's halving event.

The best we can do at best is to expect as it is up to the market to decide. As a believer in Bitcoin, one must have some level of faith that someday, the price will go up even though we done know when and how. Another thing is also to look at history data and correlate same with previous events and the outcome in the price. This is where the halving comes in. So, I agree with you that the halving next year necessitate optimistic anticipation of rise in price.

Personally, I don't have any problem with the idea of ongoingly looking at the BTC price and the value of your overall BTC holdings as compared to fiat, and even part of the sentiment of this thread involves considering the extent to which there might be some value in terms of trying to time dips versus just buying BTC regularly without much if any reference to the price, and I have difficulties considering that both might not be done and/or accomplished without necessarily devolving into trading practices and/or panicking based on BTC price moves.

Of course there is. I never understood why you never accepted a simple idea that to buy Bitcoin at a discount gives the buyer more sats for the bid that he/she made.

Yeah.. your head is like a concrete block that is not penetrable.

It seems that I have explained a million different ways, and nothing seems to sink in because you already have your mind made up regarding what strategy you are going to employ and your inability to understand and appreciate that a newbie coming into bitcoin is likely going to be way the fuck better off just getting started rather than trying to figure out if a BTC price dip is coming or not... and once s/he has accumulated a certain amount of BTC and learned about BTC for a while, then maybe s/he will be in a better position to either change his/her strategy to supplement with buying on dips, rather than DCA or to completely replace the DCA strategy with some buying on dips kind of a practice.. that still may or may not be a form of DCA, depending upon how it is deployed..

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:55:45 AM

But in a zoomed out, low time preference context, it doesn't matter.

It might matter in the context of someone waiting around for a Dip might end up fucking himself (or psyching himself) out of buying bitcoin on a regular basis and perhaps employing more aggressive ongoing BTC buying habits.. so maybe the whimpy guy ends up strategizing and not really buying as much as the guy who just buys regularly and perhaps supplements a bit more from time to time with extra purchases on dips. Do you need some examples, or do you just want to act like the ONLY way to go is to buy on dips based on your retroactively looking at the BTC price moves and the figuring out the points at which some hypothetical person would have bought his/her BTC?

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:55:45 AM

We're here to HODL and front-run the billionaires, and in that at least we're on the same side. Cool

That seems to be true... and there are likely still at least another 10 years of front-running billionaires, even though some of them are seeming to start to "get it."... even though it is hard to know which ones of them are actually getting it rather than seeming to get it but not really getting it.

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on Today at 12:14:36 PM

Although small investors who don't have a large amount to invest would be the ones that really face this kind of secumbtance (I guess), because they have a small amount to invest, they want to make sure that they are buying Bitcoin at a very low price. Most of those rich investors or institutions that have enough fiat reserved just for Bitcoin investment would not really hesitate to hit the buy button any time they see that the price of Bitcoin is bearish.

Even though I agree that there is a considerable amount of freedom that comes from having greater levels of discretionary income, I do not really agree with the dichotomy that you seem to be creating (and Wind_FURY seems to frequently make a similar kind of dichotomy), and even though poor people do not have much to work with (when it comes to their discretionary income), they still may well have reasons to be more motivated to buy bitcoin because they may well not have very many other options, as compared with the options that are available to rich people and may end up distracting rich people from being able to see, recognize and appreciate the value of bitcoin.

Quote from: HONDACD125 on Today at 04:27:07 PM

Quote from: Nwada001 on September 05, 2023, 11:24:18 PM

Every time will appear to be the perfect time for every accumulator, as they don't have to always look at Bitcoin bearish times before they can accumulate; rather, they set out an already working strategy that they can use and that will appear safe in every given market situation. They always have a set amount of capital to purchase more and add to their holdings, as what's most important is the amount they want to hold before a certain period of time and not the price they want to buy it at before that time reaches.

Just like you said, long-time holders don't have anything to worry about when it comes to price, as the price won't have any effect on time. Even if their portfolio happens to drop a little in total worth, it does not change the fact that they foresaw beyond the recent market price, but they are focused on what will come afterwards.

I think long term investment is the best investment to get good returns but the aim is never to start buying without thinking about the price. Of course, accumulating Bitcoin is a great strategy, but you should wait for the price of Bitcoin to drop from time to time. However, even if one has a large capital, he will try to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price so as to get more profit.

I think nobody's goal in accumulating Bitcoin is to accumulate more Bitcoin, but everyone's goal is to get maximum profit, and this is only possible when You get an opportunity to buy in a bearish market. One should never buy into the crypto currency market with full capital at once. Rather, one should try to buy Bitcoin at a lower price whenever the market falls. DCA is the best strategy to get good returns.

You continue to sound a bit lost, HONDACD125... and unable to appreciate the value of holding bitcoin for the long term rather than contemplating when to sell.

Quote from: bitzizzix on Today at 05:22:17 PM

And with this we are not trying to guess the direction of the market in the short term, because this aims for the long term so that we can sell at the right time with maximum profit.

I agree with everything that you said in your post bitzizzix except this part that seems to be emphasizing selling.

Sure there are likely going to be points in time that we are going to be selling portions of our BTC, but you seem to be implying that we are going to want to sell BTC and to hold something else or that we are really going to need or want to sell large portions of our BTC, absent just living off of the stack and largely just mostly continuing to hold the vast majority of what we have.

Maybe an example might be helpful?

Let's say for example, a person got into bitcoin in 2015, and had a target of retiring in 2025, but not really sure how much BTC he was going to need. so in mid 2015, he bought 100 BTC for around $30k, and then after that he just DCA'd $10 per week into BTC, and so he has an additional 2.5 BTC that he paid $4,280 over the past 8.5 years.

In 2025, he could just create a budget in which he just cashes out around 4% of his BTC stash every single year (or maybe 1% per quarter), and likely, he will be able to either live off of that forever or to use it to supplement whatever other income that he might have coming in, and maybe he might adjust how he sells his BTC based on the BTC price, but he would not necessarily have to tailor his cashing out (or living off of his stash) based on the price, he just cashes out 1% of his stash every quarter or whatever other kind of time frame that largely fits his formula (and maybe he will tweak his formula over time based on BTC potentially growing faster than he expected, but he might just decide to be strict about following the formula that he already established and just let the chips fall wherever they will)... which largely I am arguing that there may well not be any kind of need to cash out large portions of his BTC, unless maybe he might decide to cash out 10% and consider that to be 2.5 years worth of cashing out all in one go.