Quote from: Odohu on Today at 04:03:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 11, 2023, 05:48:11 PM

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.

It is somehow challenging knowing what the bottom is as you should already know that no one can accurately predict what the price will do. Besides, I consider it pointless looking for the bottom. Instead of worrying about the bottom, one can just do a simple analysis:

1. what is the ATH of Bitcoin? This being around $69k
2. Check if price is at a discount which is 50% below the ATH... in the case with Bitcoin, it is a yes.
3. Are there chances of a bullrun in the near future? Yes it is possibly considering that there is a major even next year; an event that always lead to a surge in price.

With the above three points noted and established that price is at a discount and there is a high chance we will see a new ATH, then it is wise to buy using any method such as DCA. To me looking for the bottom might actually be a major distraction and a lot of people who practice this might miss the opportunity to buy at a discount.

I don't know if you got enough because if we are holding for the long term it might not even matter if we are buying towards the top or the bottom, but surely people appreciate feeling that they are buying towards the bottom and I think that the 200-week and the 100-week moving averages are good for that... shorter time frames have less significance. at least for the longer term holder.. perhaps someone holding 4-10 years or longer, and surely if someone has already been in bitcoin for a couple of years and they were thinking that they were holding for at least 4 years, then they might only have 2 more years left on their hold time, so maybe they get nervous in times like this in which their portfolio is not doing very good after two years, and sure maybe they should be buying more, but if they already bought a lot of bitcoin they might not be in the mood to buy more, even if buying more might be the good move, but buying more should then put their timeline to be 4-10 years on the newly acquired coins... but sometimes people have difficulties with continuing to commit to longer time frames, so they might just let their investment ride, even though buying would bring down their cost per coin (if they happen to be under water)

Quote from: Odohu on Today at 04:03:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 11, 2023, 05:48:11 PM

I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions, even though my sense was that the chances were pretty good that the bear market was over when we got above $25k and pretty much stayed above $25k since mid-March 2023.. and yeah, it is not 100% clear while we are in our various price moves whether we are still in the bear market or if it really is over or not...

I had this feeling too but the prolonged consolidation within that region made me have a second thought. I will be like: "what is holding the price from leaving this region already?"

It is still hard to believe that there are going to be circumstances to bring BTC prices to new lows for this cycle, especially since the low of $15,479 was reached in November 2022 - and the 200-week moving average was around $24k at that time, so the low was around 35% below the 200-week moving average.

Right now the 200-week moving is $27,691, so to get an equivalent of 35% below the 200-week moving average, BTC prices would have to go below $17,859 if it were to go there today, and the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up about $12 per day, so it just becomes further and further from how far breaking the current low of $15,479 would cause the price to be more than 46% below the 200-week moving average, and I am not saying that it is impossible, but I am saying it sounds a bit unrealistic to even be expecting those kinds of price drops in something as good as bitcoin, absent some pretty strange-ass breaks in what bitcoin is and inabilities to keep downity manipulators in check with actual and real bitcoins that they likely do not have and so at some point it does not make any sense that they can keep the BTC price down if they don't have actual bitcoins to sell rather than make-believe bitcoin.. which causes them to run the risk of getting reckt as fuck..

Quote from: virasog on Today at 05:07:34 PM

Quote from: imamusma on September 11, 2023, 05:40:16 PM

Quote from: bangjoe on September 11, 2023, 04:29:22 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_people on September 11, 2023, 03:34:40 PM

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We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.

For daily and weekly TFs it can be confirmed as a red candle, but I cannot confirm that this red candle will continue on the monthly TF. This means that there is still a possibility of seeing a green candle before September closes, so don't let your optimism disappear just because of a correction.

In fact we haven't finished the second week for September yet, so I think there's still plenty of time to see the differences. Negative sentiment in the market can turn positive, but it may take some time to expect recovery. Red candles have been kept in July and August, but I didn't hope there to be 3 red candles in a row. While I'm not really sure what caused the market to correct in the last few hours, it's a good idea not to pay too much attention to it if you don't accumulate.

Well, on a weekly time frame, there is no change in the structure of the bitcoin. Bitcoin is making HH and HL and as long as this structure remain intact the bitcoin will remain bullish. For me, 24,800 - 25,000$ is a key level. A daily close below this level will mean that we may be moving towards a break of structure, and a weekly close below this level will confirm an extended bear market.

I hope Bitcoin will not break this important support and right now we are seeing that Bitcoin is pumping nicely from this support but seriously we would not want Bitcoin to touch this support a few times, making it weak.

I get your point virasog, but I doubt that it would be as dire for bitcoin as you suggest if some of those squiggly lines end up getting broken ($24,800 - ish). .and then bitcoin still ends up bouncing back, even though it wasn't supposed to be able to .. blah blah blah.