Quote from: zimmah on April 18, 2014, 04:58:45 PM

Quote from: micers on April 17, 2014, 10:04:27 PM

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that. The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work. I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb. I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions. Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation. If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.

For each day:
   # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
   # example:
   balance = 1.234
   interest = 0.023
   new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
   if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen. Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings. Maybe truncation is taking place. I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages. My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage. This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded. We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php. I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge. Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers

compounded interest really adds up quickly, and the difference between even 1.4% and 1.5% are extreme. But still, i will not worry, even 0,1% interest is better then 0%.

By the way, the average interest so far is about 1.4% I have calculated that if they keep compounding interest at the same rate (1.4% per day average) that an initial investment of just 0.3 BTC would become over 40 BTC in a year. This is really insane. (also, i did not truncate like they do).

Of course at some point it will not be possible to scale up though, because of the limits of arbitrage. The more you do arbitrage the smaller the spread will be, and the smaller the spread, the smaller the profit. So i doubt they'll keep this percentage up.

Still, it's a nice gambit.

If everyone stayed invested the returns would go down over a year. While you need a lot of assets for arbitrage trading, there is a limit which is basically how much market depth there is. At some point the trades get to big and move the markets too much, the result is lower gains.