Quote from: franky1 on September 20, 2023, 07:13:25 PM

there are rational reasons

many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes).

Oh yeah, the large mining farms and ASIC owners of 2010 and 2014!
Definitely!

Quote from: franky1 on September 20, 2023, 07:13:25 PM

the other factor is that when halvings occur there is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again there is a delay

So, if:
John Alice and Dicky each have 10TH/s and they see the halving coming they each buy new gear in order to double...yelds...what???
Wait a minute!
If John had 10th/s which earned him 5$ at a cost of 2.$ , if he doubles the hashrate at the same cost as electricity isn't going to change in price he is going to make again 5$ but a ta cost of 4$, so how are this comparable yields?

Let's re-write this:
John Alice and Dicky had 30TH/s earning them 10$ at 3$ cost, now they are only earning 5$ at 3$ cost, they double their hashrate for a situation where they will have 60TH/s earning them 10$ but costing them 6$, so the only thing that comes clean out of this is that 10 years later and yous till don't know how mining works and it's again proof you've never run a business in your life!

Furthermore, in 2020 at the halving the hashrate was 115.27 EH/s, it took two years and five months till October 2020 for it to double at an average of 254.80 EH/s for the first time passing 230EH/s.

Write this down and repeat it every single time you have the opportunity, difficulty follows the price with a delay, the price never follows the difficulty!