2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
This pattern cannot be disputed, but what is more interesting here is that, before the halving, you will have the option to purchase bitcoin at a price that is lower. It is more likely that it will not go beyond the price it was at the time of the halving. It may take a year or more for bitcoin to reach its new all-time high after halving, but if you can acquire it at a cheaper price, bitcoin achieving its new all-time high in one or more years will be in your advantage of a profitable outcome. This should not deter anyone who intends to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the halving and subsequently hitting the new ATH.
My fear is if ATH will actually hold this time around. The hype is accumulating, by the end of this year it will gear up the more and by the first quarter of next year we will be expectant of it. If this season's ATH fails, it will not be fair with the cryptocurrency market.
I have also read somewhere that this will be the highest halving in the recent time, which I consider as purely speculative.
The pattern noted by Op is verifiable and for it to happen in the past 3 halving, there is high tendency it will repeat this time around and that is the optimism of every bitcoiner.