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I highly agree with you that the bull run isn't a guaranteed event but it's our expectations that it will happen. Yeah, in the initial stage the bull run starts with slow pumps but over time it gets more intense. I also agree that sometimes we really can't detect the initial stages of a bull run because the ups and downs are so unpredictable in the initial stages. I believe this time something will also trigger the bull run to intense levels. The previous bull run began its intense levels in November-December 2019 and initially it started around April to June 2019 like you said.
Yes, if we see the next bull run then it will be easier for us to say something about it. But, surely someone of the expectations will be met once the bull run starts. I believe that this bull run will help Bitcoin and the whole crypto-market if it happens.
Those who have good ideas about Bitcoin and its price levels are among the learned ones I guess because they really know the importance of Bitcoin and appreciate every move of Bitcoin with positive mindset. The Bitcoin has made history for first time when its price went to $1k plus in 2013 ATH, and it made history again when its price went to $19k plus during 2017 ATH, and it made history once again when its price went to $68k plus during 2022 ATH, and now it will make another history when its price moves to ATH in next 2 years with intense bull run. I expect that in October-December 2025 Bitcoin's ATH will take place. I may be wrong but my expectations are really positive about it.
I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying.. even though it seems to have a bit of: "everybody expects, so therefore it is likely to happen" sentiment to it.. which personally I find a bit annoying to get those kinds of reasons for why bitcoin is likely to go up.. and even within the time frames that you are outlining..
I think longer term BTC HODLers accumulators do attempt to create some plans and price points for themselves, but then even longer term HODLers/accumulators may well end up deviating from their own plans.. and then maybe even having some regrets if they do not end up selling enough BTC on the way up.. yet it sometimes can be difficult to maintain your status as a longtime HOLDER if you sell too many BTC too soon, even if selling a decent amount might end up being the better thing financially to do..... even while at the same time, there are many historical examples in which way too many BTC end up getting sold way too soon.. and then that ends up leading to just crazy and weird sentiments that start to come out from those guys who were expecting some kind of correction that does not end up happening.
There is no real exact answer, yet surely having some kind of tentative plan is better than having none, so that even if you end up breaking aspects of your plan, at least you have some kind of a guidance that is out there that might at least help you in terms of figuring out how much you would like to deviate from your original plan.. and I am not even saying that sticking with the original plan is going to necessarily bring better results.. so it sometimes can be hard to even know how any of us might react when the previously theoretical numbers end up coming real (presuming that some of them might end up happening at some point in the next 1-3 years.. I am frequently expecting some kind of deviation from the 4 year fractal, even though we have been experiencing quite a bit of ongoing conformity to such four-year fractal, but it seems problematic to put too many eggs (expectations) into that too..