Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 03, 2023, 04:01:59 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 03, 2023, 11:31:41 AM

Quote from: Frankolala on October 02, 2023, 08:41:59 AM

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I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Define "surge." What if bitcoin does not go down as much as some other assets?

You seem to be ongoingly committing the same error as a lot of people who do not seem to either understand bitcoin or to be able to look at the charts.

In other words, even if we don't know exactly what bitcoin is going to do in various scenarios, we should not be presuming bitcoin to be correlated to traditional assets or to macro factors that attempt to manipulate the market..

Another thing is that even though UPpity is always a possibility and a probability, we should not be basing our finances and psychology on that, while at the same time we should continue to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction, which means that you better not be disappointed when you end up holding onto more fiat than you wished that you had held merely based on your considerations of various downity scenarios for the BTC price that might not end up playing out. just because a lot of smart people are talking about those various doom and gloom scenarios.

It's not about me. I was merely asking a question. The fundamentals are projecting that there could be a recession/crisis and therefore a possbility of a crash of all markets because there's simply less and less money in the system caused by rate hikes and QT.

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 03, 2023, 11:31:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 02, 2023, 05:07:03 PM

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They're not entirely commentaries, those are questions. I'm merely asking for your and everyone's opinions. I don't want to hear another "who the hell knows"? This is not about "when to buy or what price to buy". I just want a discussion, it doesn't matter if we agree or disagree, but we can still learn from each other.

Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not.

Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.

And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).

But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.

I'm not saying you're wrong in your approach in bidding/buying Bitcoin, I'm just asking for everyone's opinions/thoughts/insights in the current macro-economic situation and its market possibilities.

Quote from: Odohu on October 03, 2023, 07:34:30 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 03, 2023, 03:06:26 PM

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Is another full scale recession being expected? Because from present realities, a lot of countries are already in recession and there are those at the brink of depression.

I believe not yet. What are the unemployment reports in those countries? Has unemployment surged? Because if it's surging, then the people should hope that inflation in their regions are low. Because if it's high, their central banks can't make a quick pivot to QE and lower interest rates to stimulate the economy.

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Do you think that if a full blown recession happens that Bitcoin will nosedive? I am curious to know your opinion about Bitcoin with respect to global recession.

Remember that covid19 that destroy global economy, sent several businesses to oblivion yet Bitcoin prevailed. I have gotten to the point where I see Bitcoin as a safe haven in a world of uncertainty. Coming years will really be exciting for Bitcoin and those of us who are fortunate to embrace it early.

Because inflation was low during 2020 and the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world lowered rates, then turned on the money printers at maximum speed/increased government borrowing and spending. They can't do that in a high-inflation environment which we currently have. Doing that would cause hyperinflation.