Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:02:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 03, 2023, 04:01:59 PM

[edited out]

It's not about me. I was merely asking a question.

I doubt that I was making it about you. If I say, your ideas suck, or if I say that you keep saying that the BTC price is going down and you seem to be against buying and you seem to be for waiting.. then I am not talking about you, I am talking about your ideas... even if I might frame my response in a way that might seem to be attacking you personally, that's not my intention.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:02:29 AM

The fundamentals are projecting that there could be a recession/crisis and therefore a possbility of a crash of all markets because there's simply less and less money in the system caused by rate hikes and QT.

Yes.. you already made that point clearly, and it may well be true that a recession comes and/or various asset classes end up crashing, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin buying should be put off in order to see how that might play out... especially for folks who might not have any or much BTC.

Now for guys likely you who have been stacking for more than 7 years, then maybe you can afford to wait for dips because you have enough BTC to be somewhat prepared for UP, even if you are hanging onto some of your cash, just in case the BTC price goes down or for other emergency expense reasons as you also stated to be another one of your reasons to be hanging onto some cash, yet at the same time, you are not selling your bitcoin and you have a certain amount of bitcoin that helps to prepare you for up.. so it is not like you are not prepared in both directions, even if you are talking doom and gloomy and talking about waiting rather than buying with whatever extra cash that you have built up since the last times that you bought.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:02:29 AM

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:02:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 03, 2023, 04:01:59 PM

[edited out]

Ok... I gave my opinion.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

I am describing with vagueness and with hypothetical on-purpose, and I think that the overall point is that there are a variety of ways that mistakes can be made - e....................... such as I had some coins on BTC-E in 2016/2017 and then also with Bitfinex in 2016, and some of the direct transactions that I made had some losses involved with coins not going through, wrong amounts, sometimes scandalous (or opportunistic behaviors of others... so maybe some of my own mistakes might be framed as having had gotten involved at all, even though there is some value that comes through having experiences, and surely, there could be worse mistakes that involve buying and selling behaviors.. or other kinds of portfolio management that might come from transacting and then figuring out whether and when replacement might need to occur.. which I am not even going to suggest to have had been day-trading).

Feel sorry to hear that you lost your amount in Bitfinex and in BTC-E. I did not know about any BTC-E exchange but now I do know about it, I am confused to read that, it was a Russian exchange/trading platform then why did they place or choose the servers located in the USA? Well, that's another story. And you do have good points that, there would be worse possible incomes from which you have been saved by luck and with experience. We all learn from such mistakes.

But I am trying to not make those mistakes, instead, I'll learn it from the wounded lion (legendries) like you. Grin

I made conscious decisions to leave value with both Bitfinex and BTC-e.. .. and there were times in which I changed my mind about how much BTC I was keeping with various third parties, and also coming to find out about how easy sim attacks make people vulnerable .. and they are still going on now... but in 2017, they were less common, but I probably should have realized a bit better regarding the sim swap attack vector.. .. so then if something like that ends up happening, there are ways to change some approaches in order to make funds less vulnerable to that attack vehicle, even though, sometimes, some funds might still be vulnerable through other attack mechanism.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

the BTC portfolio had doubled in value, so 100% profits, and so if we are looking at 2017 and 2018 and BTC prices thereafter, the 20 BTC continued to stay above the $20k invested, ...............and sure there could be whining about "I could have had 40 BTC, but wha wha wha, I only have 20 BTC", but what good is that going to do?..

Maybe through the next 6-7 years, the BTC holdings goes from 20 BTC to 25 BTC, and maybe more value is injected during that time (maybe another $40k-$60k in order to get 5 more BTC?.. or maybe ONLY an additional $5k is injected to get from 20 BTC to 25 BTC that keeps the average cost per BTC to remain at $1k-ish), but there also could be thoughts that "I am never going to get back to 40 BTC," but where was the "emergency" exactly?

Well, that's human nature to whine about the losses and profits which was not there. I mean, we should accept our fate and be happy with what we have but there will always remain a feeling of, I had it. We can overcome this feeling by controlling our nerves and being happy with what we have and how to move forward with that. Of course, saying it seems easy but not for those who have to follow it.

Some losses are BIGGER than others, and frequently there are ways to protect yourself even when taking risks, but one of the things about risks is that we don't always realize some of the risks that we are taking or we assign the wrong values and might end up with losses from which are more difficult to recover... financially and/or psychologically...

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

Sure a short time during the losses of going down from 40 BTC to 20 BTC, there could have been feelings of loss and emergency.. but there also could be feelings of futility in trying to get the value of the lost 20 BTC back or the waste of time and energy to even think about getting back 20 lost BTC,

You are right, the emergency situation did have a bad impact on mental health and the victim is forced to take bold actions that he doesn't want to. Like he can sell his remaining 20 BTC to face the emergency state. Or some part of it. However he focused on increasing that number of BTC from 20 to 25 BTC. And even in that scenario if he still loses those 5 BTC then he will definitely be broken by heart.

He must have lost hope and have no motivation, but the profits will encourage him.

There are a lot of ways that people go through and deal with losses, and surely if all of the value was ONLY in BTC, then there might be more devastation.. but if the person had various other non-btc investments (such as stocks, properties, bonds and cash) that might have had been equal to 20 or 30 BTC at the time that s/he lost the 20 BTC, then there still is a nestegg of value in some other location.. so the loss in terms of half of the BTC portfolio might seem large in the short term, but there are various other reserve assets in other places... so such loss is not totally devastating.. only partially devastating.. and I also described a scenario in which the overall dollar value of the BTC portfolio did not even effectively bring down networth for vary long because the BTC price had been going up so much at the time.. . so then the loss ends up playing out more like opportunity costs rather than actual losses in networth that lasted...

one of the funny things about bitcoin (or maybe any other greatly appreciating asset, that sometimes very large mistakes can be made, but mostly HODLers/accumulators still can end up making money, even if they might have made less money from their mistakes, they still can end up making money in some kinds of scenarios, as long as they don't get totally reckt, and this case, holding onto half of the BTC was part of the explanation for the devastation not being as bad as it could have had been.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

No problem... Just needing to remember what we were talking about...

Well, the funny thing is, I am still replying late, and just to remind you, now we are talking about emergency funds and the mistakes that leads a man to make decisions that cost them a lot in the future.

ok.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

..and yeah, of course, some mistakes are worse than others and more difficult to recover from than others... so there could be some instances in which any of us might feel that we are in a short-term emergency status, but hopefully, we are able to get into a state in which we are NOT in an emergency status for any kind of period of time that last for than a few months .. ........... but my own circumstances never did rise to that level of emergency status,

I am happy that you never faced such emergency situations and always have an alternative source of income to deal with the lose and the emotional pressure on yourself that you will get from the value of the loss. This indicates that a person with no job or source of income should not start their journey in BTC until they have some 1 or 2 sources of income. Because that's the only way he can survive the hits of the market or hits from scams.

I surely am not of the perspective that anyone should be waiting... but instead if such person does not have an emergency fund in place and does not have very many back up resources, then s/he can still invest into bitcoin, but just take a smaller position size while s/he is working on shoring up various ways to draw from emergency funds.

So my own perspective is that there is likely needs to get started in bitcoin as soon as possible, while at the same time, if there are various things messed up in your regular life, then likely you need to be both working on shoring them up and also making sure that you are not taking any kind of large BTC position size.. so maybe instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, you only invest $10 per wee into bitcoin and use the other $90 per week to get your other shit together.. and so maybe it takes you 1-2 years before you can get your shit together sufficiently enough that you can move your weekly investment size up to $100 per week, but in the meantime, you had been investing $10 per week while you were putting in order other aspects of your financial and psychological life.

So I think that it is better to error on the side of getting started bitcoin sooner rather than later, even if you have various messes in your life that you simultaneously having to actively work upon.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

Do I buy a brand new laptop or do I buy a used one or do I repair my current one, and sure sometimes even with the laptop there can be considerable differences in prices, yet there might not be enough utility to spend $6k on a laptop versus spending $600, and sure it would be nice to have......................

That's a progressive mindset, I have this mindset. I always try to think before making investment or buying things especially. Because if we buy things that become a liability later and might cost us, like what if that $6k worth laptop is damaged and, on its repair, I have to spend more money because the laptop is expensive. Overall, my cost will increase my expectations, so I have to play under the sources I have.

that sounds right.

Quote from: Dictator69 on Today at 11:49:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 23, 2023, 03:20:04 PM

I might even decide to put it in my investment ideas thread.. but yeah, I haven't posted it yet.

Yeah you shared this link before I have bookmarked it already and will read it.

PS: to be honest, I got diverted when I see your big replies and my energy just said, do not read it just read other threads. Hehe. I am not saying anything bad about your post just telling the reason of the late reply on this post. Today, I was free and thought that I should read your reply in full and reply to it.

Sorry to cause so much work upon you.... hahahahaha.....yeah.. sometimes there are no real needs to respond further.