Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:33:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 04, 2023, 02:03:33 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 04, 2023, 09:02:29 AM

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

Perhaps, and I'm still learning. BUT what you and many other people might have already read or learned is, it's Bitcoin's first time to exist in a recession environment and although you might be right in that Bitcoin might not be affected if other markets are crashing, I still believe that it's safe to conclude that there's a HIGHER probability that it could crash together with the rest of those other markets.

Position yourself according to a variety of possible scenarios in which you already have a plan what you are going to do for each scenario.. . and surely, there might be some movements that go beyond your expectations, but if you have a plan, then you should still be able to tweak your plan in order to account for such deviations versus if you had overly planned for one direction or another.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:33:34 AM

Would that be a non-biased/impartial presumption?

I doubt that you are as non-biased/impartial as you are trying to make yourself out to be. So whatever, if you believe that you are largely prepared for any direction, then you will need to live with the consequences... yet it seems to me that you are largely just preparing to say I told you so rather than really preparing for a variety of possibilities, because it really should not matter very much if you end up being right or not in terms of your base case scenario.

Quote from: Sayeds56 on Today at 02:12:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 04, 2023, 02:03:33 PM

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.

Your approach to prepare for different scenarios is commendable, and we should consistently accumulating Bitcoin whatever the situation we confront, is a wise advice . However, we need to acknowledge that fundamentals and Bitcoin correlation with stock market does affect the Bitcoin price. The historical performance of Bitcoin since last quarter of 2021 when bullish cycle was coming to end, has vindicated that announcements related to inflation, (CPI), GDP growth rate and interest rate decisions have had note able impact on Bitcoin price, though these effects were tended to be short lived.

If you like to believe that there is correlation despite the longer term trends, then that is on you. You seem to have picked some recent data from the last 3.5 years which seems to be somewhat selective and you are trying to tell a story of correlation from that.

If you look at bitcoin in 2018 and 2019 compared to stocks and then you try to graph correlation over that 5-6 year period what do you get? You get a hell of a lot less correlation because at best, bitcoin is around 3x -8x stepped up from those price points... and yeah you can dance around and try to argue correlation. blah blah blah.. good luck with that.

Now if you add in another cycle and go out another 4 years and you go from 2014 to 2015 and you compare bitcoin and stocks as compared to where they are now, and you have bitcoin around 30x to 50x up from those points, and are you going to want to describe correlation from that data?

We could go back even further and adding another few years (such as looking at 2011-2012(, but sometimes it is not as fair to be going back to data in Bitcoin's very first cycle because bitcoin hardly even had a price, so for sure the correlation is even worse, and it just goes with bitcoin going around 1,000x to 14,000x from then to today.. depending on the starting measuring points.

Yeah, bitcoin has an ongoing unfair advantage over traditional systems because it is still in its early adoption phase which means s-curve exponential adoption rather than the comparing of one mature asset class as compared to another mature asset class, so if you want to continue to make dumb-ass mistakes and try to act as if bitcoin is in some kind of a quasi-mature asset class and blah blah blah, that is your choice to decide to completely ignore that bitcoin is ongoingly likely inside of an early s-curve adoption phase, and even if bitcoin is not guaranteed to continue to prosper within such an exponential s-curve, you are making mistakes by trying to downplay and/or ignore the matter by looking at selective data and trying to act as if correlation exists through your looking at shadows (reflections of reality) rather than at actual light (reality)... but hey, whatever.. you do you.