Quote from: o48o on October 05, 2023, 11:05:57 PM

Quote from: Macoach on October 03, 2023, 03:46:18 PM

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency.

But this time was different:

Here, we can see that despite the lack of significant bullish news, with the possible exception of the release of the Ethereum ETFs, September did close a full +3.9% higher than August. Even so, with such low levels of liquidity as they are at the moment, we don't need much news to impact prices.
In any case, this is yet another example of how previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance. While I personally believe that the past will always and forever be a part of the future, many people simply have a tendency to anticipate the future and base their financial decisions on the past, which I believe to be reckless and nothing more than gambling.

While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.

I think that this whole cycle is already canceled.

When everyone predicts something (like impact of halving), they also prepare for it. And when this happens in a big enough scale, it means that the fundamental reason people see for the price growth, is already priced in. And that what i think has happened. So we are in uncharted waters now.

Maybe it will affect in other halvings more when people aren't counting on it and haven't bought everything they could before it.

When everyone is really that anticipating for something and expecting for those common patterns which on based up on the things that happened in the past and everyone is really just doing on the same move.
Then expect that the market would really be always loving on going to the opposite side of things which would be leaving into those people who are waiting for the right opportunity whether to sell or to buy.
Its true that not all things that happened in the past would reflect out and would really be happening in the future on which we do know that market isnt something that predictable or could really be known
on which it would really be that causing up for tons of people had move into the other direction. Always put up into our minds that probabilities of opposite things to happen would be always there.
Manipulators or market movers are the ones who would really be dictating this market and same goes with a little bit mix of sudden adoption.