Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 16, 2023, 05:05:17 AM

Quote from: Winterfrost on October 15, 2023, 11:36:27 AM

Not every time I do agree with strangers or so-called bitcoin investment experts. At the end of the day the only person who understands your investing decisions either to hold, sell during the two sides of the market level is yours especially when you see others panicking. But if you decide to listen to other opinion its not a bad idea but it should be for the best.

That's the right thing to do. You can never trust people, even if they present themselves as experts. But when these individuals suggest investing in Bitcoin, I think it's a no-brainer because it's likely to provide long-term profits. The easiest investment strategy is to HODL; no more experts are needed this way. Whether we like it or not, Bitcoin will always have its bull seasons, although they are not so predictable. Just like the current situation, if we continue to hear bullish news and predictions, it could potentially drive the market into a bull season, and achieving an ATH is likely. It's just a simple cycle. To ensure a profit, buy during the bear market and sell during the bull run.

We are not talking about selling in this thread, and it is not even clear that selling is a good idea in terms of the kinds of things that we are talking about in this thread..

Quote from: Kasabus on October 16, 2023, 05:36:12 AM

Quote from: Salahmu on October 15, 2023, 10:31:21 PM

And just like you said a beginner shouldn't focus too much on the profit making instead the target should just be on the accumulating process because having a profit making mindset at the beginning could affect you if realized the Bitcoin is not moving on the direction that favours you.

That sounds ideal, but when we say 'newbie,' we're referring to those who aren't very knowledgeable about the market.

When I use the term "newbie" I am referring to someone who is somewhat new to bitcoin, but that does not mean that they are new to the market or that they don't know much of anything about bitcoin or even the bitcoin market. A newbie could have a lot of knowledge and/or expertise in a lot of areas, and may have even have had been watching bitcoin for a long time, but it is one thing to watch bitcoin and another thing to develop your own investment approach and to acquire a bitcoin position. There also may be some people who are very familiar with trading who get into bitcoin, and so they might have a lot of opinions that might differ from what we are talkng about in this thread, which are ways to attempt to accumulate bitcoin.. with a kind of long term investment presumption... so someone could be a newbie in terms of the kinds of investment approaches that we are talking about in this thread.

Quote from: Kasabus on October 16, 2023, 05:36:12 AM

So, it's unlikely that they can make themselves profitable by taking advantage of market volatility.

Traders could be newbies to this thread and even newbies to the idea of long term investing without trading, but it is not automatic that they are not going to be able to make profits with their trades, even though we are not talking about trading in this thread.. but they still could be newbies... and they could still know a lot of good trading strategies, even though that is not on topic, here.

Quote from: Kasabus on October 16, 2023, 05:36:12 AM

There may be a few who manage to be profitable, but I suggest that for newcomers, they should keep things simple, and that is to buy and hold.

Fair enough.

Quote from: Kasabus on October 16, 2023, 09:42:07 AM

Quote from: Roseline492 on October 16, 2023, 09:27:01 AM

Quote from: Kasabus on October 16, 2023, 05:36:12 AM

That sounds ideal, but when we say 'newbie,' we're referring to those who aren't very knowledgeable about the market. So, it's unlikely that they can make themselves profitable by taking advantage of market volatility. There may be a few who manage to be profitable, but I suggest that for newcomers, they should keep things simple, and that is to buy and hold.

Yeah the best way for newbies to survive is through buy and hold but however the idea of getting the basic knowledge about Bitcoin will be very wise because investing on something you don't have any knowledge about is just like holding by based on speculation heard from people about Bitcoin but with the basic knowledge will serve you as a roadmap for Bitcoin by giving you the faith that in the near future Bitcoin will unveil it main potential.

I agree with you that newbies should keep things simple and avoid thinking about trading instead the main focus should be for accumulating and holding.

Knowledge in Bitcoin is easy to acquire, but when it comes to trading, it not only requires knowledge but also experience. With experience, you can prove whether you are a profitable trader or not. It can be challenging for some, as success is not achieved overnight. They might become frustrated if they aren't entirely focused on trading, especially if they have a job or a business to prioritize over trading.

An overwhelming majority - maybe even more than 80% of people have no fucking clue about trading or even likely any desires to get involved in trading.. but some normal people will get sucked into the gambling aspect of trading, and even believing that trading is what they are supposed to do as a good idea to go down the trading path.. which most of the time it is not even worth it to go down such trading path an/or to consider it - especially if they do not have a certain amount of time to dedicate learning about it..

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

I don't want to get into too many details in this thread, and sure there likely are variations from country to country, but also sometimes there could be rogue actors who work for the companies too (at the employee level that end up getting access to such information and they could be part of the problem).

It's your choice, and it's a good one, because, it would be considered as off-topic, well, process of registering do vary from country to country and the bad actors within the company are the ones that might be compromised by the hackers or are with the hackers and working in group. Such attacks, still occur in today world, but I think to only those, who easily become victim of phishing sites or links.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

hackers are able to stay up-to-date on some of the latest and greatest of possible vulnerable areas.

Hackers are the most up to dated persons alive on earth, I have read many topics here on BTT, in which hackers and scammers found many news ways of scamming the other party, and those who don't know those scam types can easily become victim. In order to remain safe, we should get up to date too.

It's an ever evolving area in terms of both what hackers are doing and ways that we will be trying to protect ourselves, and surely bitcoin (and even shitcoins) create more incentives for hackers to get into our information.. because if the information has monetary value that can be quickly liquidated, then they have motives to improve their systems to get that information and to attempt to cash out without getting caught.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

Sometimes they might not need very much information because if they get one or two of the passwords to your e-mail, and then they change the e-mail password and then they might log into various websites in which recovery of the password is the e-mail or the phone.. so

I recently talking to my father about Pi, you might be aware of Pi, he said, he remembers his wallet password because he used the same password at all places, and I forgot it because I use different passwords, well, first I thought the solution to this problem you have mentioned would be to use different passwords, but yeah, if we have saved all the passwords on single email, and if that email is gone then all the passwords saved on it are also gone. You just wake me up by saying this.

Yes.. it could get a little crazy because if they are able to reset your password by having access to something else, then they don't need to know all of you passwords. They only need one way in and then once they get a few different accounts, they might be able to get into more and more things without knowing the password.. so an email and SMS code can sometimes be enough, but surely sometime they might need more than that, too.. I am pretty sure that a lot of new systems of security are becoming more popular in recent times, but the hackers are still getting into various kinds of accounts, even somewhat secured accounts..

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

Sure there can be ways to use different e-mails for resetting or even using various authenticators and/or UBKey type devices that would make it more difficult for an attacker to get into as many accounts.. and using Sms authentication does tend to be a weak point when hackers get your phone number.

Indeed, we should definitely avoid accounts build on phone numbers, but email is more vulnerable to such attacks.

Neither is really that secure, and maybe even authenticators could have weaknesses.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

I was not really talking about shitcoins, so the framework could be that as long as you understand that you can lose 100% of your bitcoin investment, then you should be able to invest (or position size) according to that understanding. In other words, each of us should be prepared for the possibility that bitcoin could go to zero... so if we invest accordingly, we still could end up profiting a lot, even though we were prepared for the possibility that we might not profit.

You will be shocked, even before reading your post, I was watching IG and, in a video, Laszlo was interviewed and said, he sold 10k BTC for 2 Pizza. It's not that I don't know about him, it's just due to that video, an idea came up in my mind that, when Laszlo made an announcement of selling the 10k BTC for 2 Pizza, (and I know that post is made here on BTT, I searched it all).

I thought, what if he just wrote 100 BTC for 2 pizza or at least he would have written 5k BTC for 2 Pizza, I think he would still have remaining amount till now, and I don't know why but I am sure that if he would write 5K for 2 pizzas then he would still got a deal with some member. But as you said, when someone does not think from both the good and bad angle, he makes such mistakes, and do the unexpected things. The same might happen with those, who are blindly coming into the BTC and ignoring the risk factor. A skeptical mindset always saves you from some of the loss.

I really doubt that the Lazlo example is a good one. He was the first person who came up with GPU mining rather than CPU mining and he was winning a lot of rewards as a miner. I think that he wanted to spend some of his extra bitcoin, so you don't need to worry about Lazlo. He likely has plenty of bitcoin, and I am pretty sure that he does not talk about or think about his having had sold 10k bitcoin for two pizzas as a mistake. The ideas about his transaction being a mistake comes from people who are imposing those ideas, and sure there are a lot of people who sold way too many bitcoin too soon, so I am not opposed to that idea, but I doubt that Laslo has as many regrets as people like to project him as having.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

At least you should be making sure to monitor your cashflows, and if your expenses are in some kind of a fiat, it is good to make sure that you project out your cashflows for 6 to 24 months..

That's a lot of savings, I never saved that much money that could run me (including my family) for 6 to 24 months,

You do not have to save 6-24 months in order to project out your budget. When you look at your cashflow and your expenses, you likely already have some ideas about a lot of them, and you can project them out using an excel spreadsheet or maybe some other way of projecting them out. Some people will keep some extra cash for regular expenses and fluctuations in their cashflow, and some forms of cashflow are more secure and/or replaceable than others. So you have to figure out your own comfort level in terms of how much cash (or other mostly liquid assets) you feel that you need to hold in reserves.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Instead, I don't think I can even save that much money. Because I just came to realize that the money that we need for the 4 months is around $1200 (in my country). If things go right, and we face no medical situations or any other type of disaster.

Well if you only have 1-2 months in reserve (that would be $300 to $600), then you may well want to consider increasing that amount little by little, and surely you can invest in bitcoin and increase your cash reserves at the same time. You have to decide for yourself how much value you feel that you need to keep in reserves, but at the same time realizing that if you invest into bitcoin and you have little to no reserves, then you might end up having to sell your bitcoin at a time that is not of your own choosing, so frequently it is better to have some level of reserve so that you do not end up getting into such a position due to your own lack of sufficient/adequate preparation...and in the end, it is your own problem if you have chosen to take chances in regards to how much reserves that you have. There are quite a few people who had decently good bitcoin reserves but they ended up having to sell some of them and/or all of them due to their lack of preparations for their cashflow variations and even emergencies that are likely to come up from time to time and emergencies that are more likely to come up if you don't have much if any cash reserves.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

And I don't know how much money I would be needed in any medical situation and how any other person would have predict that. But yeah, it is wise to have some funds for emergency.

You do not have to have enough for all situations, but you should have enough to cover a variety of things that could come up.. 3-6 months is usually the practice. .but you have to consider your own situation in terms of whether you are o.k. to be on the low end of that or the high end and to keep in mind what kinds of goals that you would like to have in order that you can feel that you are covered for a variety of scenarios that might end up coming up.

I understand that people who are younger and who have solid cashflow situations, they might error on the side of holding less in reserves and being more aggressive in their bitcoin investment, but they still coudl end up getting into trouble if they push limits too far, and you can never really know for sure until after the emergency or event happens then you can see whether you were able to weather the situation without too much damage or if you ended up getting reckt or close to reckt. On of the things is that if you have spent 5-10 years or more investing into something, you would not want your total investment to get wiped out merely because you got greedy and you failed/refused to adequately/sufficiently protect your investment with enough of a reserve fund and/or organization of your cashflows and projecting out your expenses in to the future so that you know what might be coming up instead of getting surprised because you failed to project out your budget far enough in advance... and that is upon you how many risks that you are willing to take in that direction.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

Yes, I am sure some of the frameworks that "influencers" use are better than others.. and repackaging of good ideas does seem to happen, whether here or through some of the influencers, and surely whether you are communicating with me or you are considering what any influencer is saying, there are likely some times when you will disagree with parts, but you might not exactly know why right away, but surely the back and forth can create for some kinds of active and interactive learning where you end up learning more because you engaged in some back and forth, some skepticism, some critical thinking and probably overall trying to apply the ideas to your own ideas and/or practices.

OMG, you are talking exactly like them (motivators). Cheesy

well, there is no doubt in the words I have bolded. Because I also had this mindset that, if we are at the same position even after a year then we are not being productive with our life, and we have to try another thing or put more efforts in the thing we were doing before, I used to motivate my siblings, with this statement, that if you would have started to engage with the people of your field/skill then you will end up learning more after a year. I can use my own example here, I used to be a noob, but reading posts and by making replies to them, I learnt a lot and I can say for sure that, I am not at that position (of noob) where I was at the time of joining this forum. Cool

For sure there are ONLY so many hours in a day, so we have to make choices regarding how to spend our time and how much energy that we might want to put into learning certain kinds skills or even when we might have access to people in our surroundings, we sometimes might not be engaging them as much as we could.. so we should be showing interest, but at the same time, we have to be careful not to become annoying...

I remember some jobs that I had in the past, and I could have done better, but sometimes we don't really know what we don't know until reflecting upon the matter later, and then sometimes we might realize that we could have gotten more out of that situation if we had tried harder...or focused more or just interacted with people around us, as you mentioned.

Quote from: Dictator69 on October 16, 2023, 09:47:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 04:50:33 AM

Yes.. maybe I assumed that once a person has already decided that s/he is getting into bitcoin, then that person is largely considering position size and how to advance from being able to invest $10 per week and getting up to a higher amount, such as $100 per week.. S/he already had the conviction, and surely there are so many people who do not have conviction, and maybe they still might choose to invest $10 per month because of their skepticism...

You just said the words of my heart, I recently read a topic, and in that topic, OP said "Just buy bitcoin and hold your own keys or else you are going to get scammed" and many posters emphasize the cruelty and differences of the people living in the same world. Many people grow a lot due to their skepticism while other are not able to grow for the same skepticism. It is really hard to predict the reason, but at least taking risk is what worth most.

You gotta end up coming to your own judgement, and someone who is earning $300 to $500 per month and ONLY able to buy $10 to $200 worth of bitcoin per month, depending on how the cashflow is for that month, with many instances of ONLY being able to buy about $10- $20 per week, the it is going to take that person a decently long time to build up his/her bitcoin stash. .and so maybe the first several months or even a whole year, s/he might hold his BTC on an exchange while s/he is figuring out how s/he is going to secure his/her coins. That is taking chances, and sometimes there are not any problems to take some chances because a lot of things are happening at the same time, and there might not be any comfort for some folks until they end up getting a year or two of their income invested into bitcoin, which could take 10 years or longer to get to that level, but surely after a few years if the coins are secure, there is likely going to be more and more comfort building with the building of the size of the BTC stash.. whether they are in profits or not, and sure it may well feel better if they are in profits, but with anything in life there are not guarantees, even if the circumstances and odds seem to be pretty damned good.. but still we have to attempt to prepare ourselves for a variety of scenarios so we do have to continue to consider our position size and the balancing of various things going on in our lives in regards to how aggressive that we are able to be with our bitcoin investment without putting our holdings at unjustifiable levels of risk..

Quote from: MusaPk on October 16, 2023, 12:18:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 08:04:21 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on October 15, 2023, 05:19:46 PM

Its not necessary that at the time you stop accumulating in DCA manner you are getting good profit on your total investment. In that case one may stop further accumulation and wait for price to go up. There is no way we can guarantee that what Bitcoin price will be about 6 months after. So we must keep all options open if you are investing in Bitcoin.

I frequently tell people that it would be good to think of their BTC investment in terms of 4-10 years or longer, so in that regard, if someone starts a DCA strategy that s/he is intending to invest $100 per week (which would be $5,200 per year) for the next 4-10 years, then they are still building their investment with each time that they buy some more BTC... so there might be some point in which they either say that they invested enough or that they might start to think that the could increase their investment to $200 per week or reduce it to $50 per week.

And if they get a bonus payment from their work of another $5k, they might consider whether and how they are going to invest that into BTC, and their decision might well depend upon where they are at in their BTC accumulation journey.

If someone is investing 200$ per week then it will also be a good idea to reduce the money when price goes up and increase the investment funds when one think price is high. This is something one has to work around himself there is no standard guideline for that.

Just because you do that, it is not necessarily going to bring better results to be making those kind of adjustments to how much someone is buying.. but surely the longer that they buy bitcoin, the more that the are likely going to have more options because their bitcoin stash has gotten BIGGER, and they can be better informed and decide what they would like to do based on having more information, but even if their BTC stash is getting bigger and the BTC price is going up, it still might not necessarily be a good idea to reduce the amount invested into BTC. Let's say that a person is new to bitcoin, and they are trying to get to fuck you status in 10-20 years, and the sooner they get there the better, but they ONLY have around $200 per week that they can use to buy BTC. They might want to spend most of that with just regular buys, adn sure, if they want to save $50 on the side for buying on dips, then that might be o..k... but it may or may not end up working out as well as just using the whole $200 to buy bitcoin every week, and so after 1 year, they would have invested $10,400 into bitcoin, and so after 10 years they would have invested $100,400 into BTC.

My fuck you status chart shows that such person might need to have around 4 BTC by the end of 2033 in order to reach entry level fuck you status

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:25 AM

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $ StartDate Gain/Time(days) FU Status Goal
$46.41 6/1/14 182.6 (6 mos) $2,000,000

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
11/29/2033		$492,561.90	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.06040337
05/31/2034		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.71141947
11/29/2034		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.40119980
05/31/2035		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.12474543
........
05/31/2038		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455.00	1.97321752
...........
11/29/2043		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375.00	1.02018279
.................
11/28/2048		$3,139,783	4.31%	98.00%	$135,277	0.63698674
.................
05/29/2056		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$206,870	0.35463011

So maybe if such hypothetical person had gotten up to 4 BTC, then they would be getting close to fuck you status in 10 years.. but we cannot be sure how many bitcoin they would have been able to get if their purchases of $200 per week were to be spread over 10 years...maybe they were ONLY able to accumulate 1-2 BTC with that kind of an investment approach.. which still might be o.k. to have 2 BTC by 2038, as shown in my chart.

Quote from: MusaPk on October 16, 2023, 12:18:55 PM

And yes DCA works best when you plan to invest for 4 to 5 years. If there is bull run (like the last one of 67k$) then one can get good profit and to me its better to cash out when you are getting adequate profit.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 15, 2023, 08:04:21 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on October 15, 2023, 05:19:46 PM

So its better to go for DCA since its reliable or less risky compared to other available strategies. You are right that it will take considerable time to read charts or follow other things. Time is most precious thing and we must spend it in most enjoyable way.
Spend time on things that give you good return. Its useless to run after things that take too much of our time.

Hopefully, it is ultimately a balance, and some people really enjoy certain kinds of activities, even nerdy ones, so it is not like it would necessarily be an all or nothing approach, yet at the same time, when someone is brand new to bitcoin, it may well be a lot better for them to attempt to employ a system that does not take up a lot of time.. because they likely would have already spent some time just figuring out their bitcoin sourcing... maybe setting up accounts to buy bitcoin... and maybe they have one or two jobs that take a lot of their time and a family and maybe some other stuff that they either like or feel obligated to do... so then at some point they might be weighing how much time they are able to spend to study certain aspects or to try to determine if the BTC price is dipping, why it is dipping and if it is going to continue to dip.. which after they do the whole assessment, then they might still end up being wrong. .so then there could be some value to just being a lot more modest in their approach and so then something like DCA could end up building up a decent amount of BTC over 4-10 years without even giving too much thought to it.. and maybe just reading about some BIGGER areas, or listening to podcasts, but not really getting into particulars of trying to predict if the BTC price is going up or down in the short-term.. which surely can be time consuming and even adding some unnecessary stresses.

Those who are new to Bitcoin have to spend some time initially to understand what it is and how it works. Those who spend some time early in there journey wont find it hard for the future. You might be an expert Bitcoiner now but initially you also have spend time in knowing this system. Even one need time to understand how DCA works in case of Bitcoin although there is lot of literature available that can tell how effective DCA is.
There is no shortcut to success, one has to put his time and effort to get success. You cant get success in crypto or other trading market only by listening to podcast or by reading tutorials. To get success one has to think from his own mind that what works best for him.
The more you sweat, the more you shine

I agree with most of what you are saying here, and surely there is value to interactive kinds of learning that involve ongoing actions rather than just reading about the theory and not doing anything... so year, there may be some needs to put some plans into action, whether that is $10 per week or some higher amount that might depend on personal circumstances, and maybe even a smaller amount in the beginning while learning and gaining confidence.