Quote from: Winterfrost on October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 18, 2023, 07:53:10 PM

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 18, 2023, 09:23:08 AM

Quote from: SeriouslyGiveaway on October 18, 2023, 07:46:07 AM

But I'm wondering, what if you have a substantial amount you intend to invest in Crypto, let's say $100,000? How would you use DCA in that case?
- For me, my approach is to divide my capital into three parts. Every time Bitcoin corrects more than 20%, I put in one part of the capital. From the beginning of the year until now, I've only executed one of these parts. The other two parts are still waiting for the next correction cycles.

If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Having been in the Bitcoin space for some years now, I think there are some low prices I will see Bitcoin drop to, and I might not consider using the DCA at the moment. The reason is because if I buy at the low prices, let's say $15k–$20k, I know that definitely the price will spike again and go above that, which will guarantee me a huge profit. All I have to do is hold my asset tight, sit back, and wait for the bull market.

Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.

I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum.

Your statement is not correct. Lump sum and buying on dip are two different concepts. Sure, they can be combined, but it is not accurate to proclaim that either they have to be combined or that we should strive to combine them.. In other words, sometimes it might be better to just buy rather than waiting for a dip, and if someone has a lump sum of fiat that is available to be invested into bitcoin, then there there are options regarding how to divide such money into the three main categories, which is 1) DCA, 2) buying on dip and 3) buying right away.. and even within the three categories there are likely various options regarding how to structure. including amounts, spreads, increments.

Quote from: Winterfrost on October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM

You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it.

I doubt it. You can weigh for yourself the advantages and disadvantages of any of the buying methods, whether DCA, buying on dips or right away, and advantage/disadvantages might depend upon what you might be attempting to achieve. Sure if you are wanting to attempt some kind of maximizing the potential for you to get as rich as possible and as fast as possible, that might not be a clear enough wish because we cannot know exactly how the BTC price is going to perform, so we cannot really set our strategy in a way that will assure to reach our goal, but instead we likely need to balance our strategy with various scenarios in order to prepare us financially and psychologically for a variety of possible scenarios, even if ONLY one scenario is going to end up playing out, but we don't know which of the scenarios it will be even if we likely attempt to structure our practice in terms of what is most likely to play out, but it would still result in poor risk management to completely structure our approach as if what we consider to be the most likely scenario as if it were 100% guaranteed to play out, even though we might have had assigned such scenario to have the highest probability of playing out.

Quote from: Winterfrost on October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM

While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing.

I doubt it.

You first have to presume someone has the ability to do lump sum, and then you are looking at a smaller group of people as compared to just saying "most people" Most people don't do lump sum is because they don't even have the possibility to do it. So if we then presume that they have the option, we still might recognize a variety of reasons that absent some peculiar circumstances, many of them might not want to lump sum with everything that they have available, even though they might choose to lump sum with a portion of it. Someone who has $10k that s/he is able to invest, might choose to lump sum with 1/3rd of it $3,333.33 .. or perhaps some other amount, and may well divide other parts into DCA and buying on dip reserves.. But sure some of them might choose a different percentage and might choose to not do DCA. and may choose to wait for dips, and sure they might end up screwing themselves if they wait for dips that do not end up happening, but yeah people do dumb things because sometimes they are either greedy or scared and don't know enough about their investment, but merely because people do dumb things, we shouldn't necessarily presume that everyone is doing it .. or most are doing it?

Quote from: Winterfrost on October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM

It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

ok.. we are not really saying anything differently, here.

Quote from: Winterfrost on October 18, 2023, 10:47:40 PM

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.

No problem. When you have a lump sum amount, then you have discretion regarding how you want to structure your buys.

Quote from: SeriouslyGiveaway on Today at 02:44:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 18, 2023, 07:53:10 PM

If you have a lump sum, you can still divide it into parts, and you could decide whether you are going to buy some of those on dips and/or to DCA and/or to just buy right away.

So the portion that you have set for DCA, then you might take 1/3 and just set it up over 6 months or a year or even over 1 or 2 months.

So if you have $33k, then maybe you set them up for $1k per week for 33 weeks or you could pick a different amount per time period .. you could do daily or you could do bi-weekly, monthly or quarterly... there are quite a few options that would just set up your buy amounts based on how quickly you want to inject your purchases whether you want your amount to get put in fairly rapidly or you want to spread it aout for a while.

Many times people are using DCA because either they do not have lump sums available or because maybe they want to pace their investment, such as a person might hold $40k in equities, $30k in property, $30k in bonds $10k in cash and cash equivalents and $30k in gold. Maybe if the person wants to slim down his/her gold holdings, from $30k to $15k, s/he will decide to slim down by $1k per month over the next 15 months or surely some other time period and amount could be used, but it is a way to pick a timeline to ease out of an investment and also sometimes people might just decide to stop investing in one asset or another and just divert those funds to other assets, and that would be another way to accomplish similar kinds of reallocations, without using lump sums but instead DCAing... even though in that last example lump sums would optionally be available to the person but easing from one investment to another frequently feels better, and may well have fewer potentially negative tax ramifications, too.

Thanks for explaining this in detail. There are actually many ways to approach DCA, but the most crucial aspect is sticking to your plan with discipline.

You are not exactly wrong, but I would suggest that one of the most crucial aspects is to attempt to tailor your plan to your own particular circumstances, and perhaps from time to time, you need to review the extent to which your personal circumstance might have changed enough to change what you are doing. So it is good to have goals and targets and to tweak from time to time, but sometimes you could end up having long periods of time in which you are not really making any changes and just sticking with your same purchase amount.

Quote from: SeriouslyGiveaway on Today at 02:44:43 AM

If you don't mind, could you share the method you're currently using in detail?

I am not in the same phase of my investment journey as the overwhelming majority of the population, including members participating in this thread. An overwhelming number of the world including members of this thread is either in accumulation phase or pre-accumulation phase. Even though I accumulate from time to time, I mostly went through my BTC accumulation in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and sure sometimes it can be difficult for any of us to know where we are at in our bitcoin journey, but I doubt that it is going to be very helpful to attempt to do what I am doing when it does not really apply to what you likely should be doing. which is accumulating bitcoin and tailoring your bitcoin accumualtion to your own circmstances.

Quote from: SeriouslyGiveaway on Today at 02:44:43 AM

And aside from Bitcoin, are there any Altcoins you're interested in for long-term investments?

I personally believe it is best to get your shit in order in regards to bitcoin first. Why fuck around with shitcoins, except maybe up to 10% of your bitcoin size, but even then if you invest in shitcoins, you are distracting yourself and you are diluting your bitcoin financials.

Yes, I know people are easily distracted into shitcoins and believe that there are ways to "get rich" quicker by fucking around with shitcoins, but the mere fact that a lot of folks are distracted into shitcoins does not mean that you should allow yourself to get lured into such overwhelming nonsense and gobble-dee-gook.. especially if you don't seem to know what bitcoin is, and you seem to have had not established a decent bitcoin position, yet..

Quote from: SeriouslyGiveaway on Today at 02:44:43 AM

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 18, 2023, 09:23:08 AM

If I remember correctly, the price of Bitcoin was $20,250 as of January this year, and to have such a substantial amount of money, I would have just invested in all of it. The reason is that Bitcoin will not go back below $20k this year or even next year. In my opinion, Bitcoin has given people the opportunity to buy when the price was $20k at the beginning of the year and even was below $19k last year, which means no investor will see the $20k price again till probably the next bear market.

Perhaps, as of January this year, $20,250 is already the year's low, according to your analysis. Currently, there are two conflicting predictions: one suggests that Bitcoin will rise from this point, while the other argues it will drop to test the $20,000 price and fill the CME gap. It's indeed challenging to predict which one will turn out to be accurate. However, I still intend to follow my plan and the analytics I've conducted.

Yeah, but the odds are not exactly equal that the price might go to $20k or not, so even if you consider that the BTC price might go to $20k, sure there is no problem in terms of preparing for such possibility with some amount of your available resources, but if you don't have any BTC or you have ONLY a little, you should probably be buying rather than fucking around with waiting for something that has decent odds of not happening..

So, how you prepare for up while simultaneously preparing for down partially will depend on how many BTC that you have but it depends on alot of your circumstances regarding your cashflow and your other assets and even your goals, so if you have $100k in your overall investment portfolio and you have $10k in bitcoin (that's 10%) and then you have some cash and some cashflow (maybe $100 per week extra for bitcoin and maybe $5k saved up for buying on dips), then you have to figure it out. How much of that saved up amount are you going to allocate to bitcoin buying as the money comes in, saving to buy on dips, and how are you going to allocate to each of those categories... it is not obvious to not buy now or to wait or even to divide it 50/50, but some people are more inclined towards gambling than others.

Another thing is that BTC prices are not very much above the 200-week moving average (which is now about $28,200), so it is not exactly as if the BTC price is in a historically high price range.. and yeah the 200-week moving average does not exactly tell us that we are in a bottom, because further dips can end up happening, but still sounds like gambling to me when you are seeming to assign such high expectations as if $20k were equally as likely as $35k or whatever it is that you are wanting to proclaim.