All he has to do is send the coins to localbitcoins, sell them there, for cash, and he is golden. Not rocket science.
You don't understand forensic computer science very well and so far the thief doesn't appear to either. This thief is moving a HUGE amount of mostly very traceable money.
One little slip up with ALL that money, just one, and/or one little assist from those with a "grasp" on TOR and what not
, and he is caught. It may happen now, in a few months, or even years.But, I'd say he is as good as caught.
Its About Sharing
I understand completely actually.
He sends the btc to a localbtc address. There is no way that you know that the address he sends to is a localbtc address. All you know is that he sent the coins to another wallet. He sells for cash. Localbtc transfers coins to buyer.
How are you going to trace him? You can keep following the coins, but you will be chasing the wrong person.
First, there is a world of improvement needed for coin washing for starters. It is not quite there yet and when you are going to wash that many coins, which this guys hasn't done much of, you will still be able to follow them, just due to the amount.
bryant.coleman mentioned one possibility and if you think it ends there, there are for sure more. I can think of a few ways but will not post them here. No sense in helping the thief.
We are in the very early days and this guy has already left enough fingerprints imo that intelligence agencies (e.g. NSA) if they get involved, could probably already point him out. In a way, it is nice they didn't nab him as it give hope to other thieves.
I just don't think this one or few guys are as smart as the mass of computer experts following him around. He is going to make a mistake and get nabbed is my educated guess.
IAS