Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 02:19:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:44:21 PM

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 12:38:12 PM

With the right mindset, to hold against sharp drops in price will not be a problem because the confidence will be there that Bitcoin will always recover.

I agree with everything that you said in your post except the last line (above), and it is problematic to believe that the bitcoin price will "always recover," even if we know historically the BTC price has trended up, and there is no real evidence that the UP trend in bitcoin is going to stop, but it is still not guaranteed to go up. so it is inaccurate to use the term "always" whether you are merely thinking it in your mind or believing that it is actually going to happen that way and that is the reason why you might end up overly leveraging into bitcoin because you wrongly have those beliefs about bitcoin being "guaranteed" to go up..

You are right, there is no guarantees even in life. I just used that for emphasis but it turned out to be wrong. You will agree with me that investing in Bitcoin requires some form of trust and confidence that it will be worth the funds injected into it even if this is a passive income.

I am not sure if I agree because it still seems to be in your head that the BTC price is going to go up no matter what, which is not true. We cannot really know the future until it arrives, and even if a future that had a 10% chance of happening ends up happening then that one becomes 100%, even though there were a variety of alternative futures that had better chances at an earlier date.

We should be able to hold simultaneous ideas in our head at the same time.. and for example if we describe what we expect to be the future until January and then we also have another future that we are describing until April 2024 and then another that we are describing until October 2024, and then some variation ends up happening in that the future that we expected in January 2024 does not end up happening, but instead one of our 10% scenarios ended up happening, it would thereafter be foolish for us to keep our ideas of what will happen in April 2024 and what will happen in October 2024 as the same, we have to adjust our opinion based on the real status in January 2024 rather than what we thought that it was going to be because a less probable set of events ended up playing out that affects the likelihood of all future events thereafter.

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 02:19:46 PM

Anything contrary to having faith in Bitcoin might lead to panic and sometimes giving in to fear from those spreading fud.

We can still stick with our main ideas, even if some things might not end up playing out how we expected, but we might have to make some adjustments - and I doubt that any adjustment should be attempting to not deal with facts in front of us.. and also sometimes we might be having our own doubts based on our not having enough information to fill the gaps in terms of making sure that we need to stick with our investment thesis.

I think that part of the reason that we can sometimes stick with our original thesis is because we do not overly invest into bitcoin or anything else in order that we are either scared out of our investment or that we cannot tolerate bitcoin going to zero, or some other scenario that might not mean that it goes to zero but it fails to go up or that it actually goes down for way longer than we had expected.

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 02:19:46 PM

However, that does not mean we should not exercise caution while investing. Having gone back to read my post, it is obvious I expressed my confidence in Bitcoin beyond the limit and that is not correct.

Sure, we can attempt to be ongoingly aggressive in our investment into bitcoin, but we still may well need to live with various scenarios in which the BTC price might not be performing even close to what we had expected, and there might not even be any new facts or logic to cause us to change our perspective or lose conviction in the strength of bitcoin as an investment, but still there could be times when the market moves against us for way longer than seems rational (or even possible).

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 02:19:46 PM

I'm a dutiful follower of the DCA method, observing all that it stated and applying some finetuning like setting aside emergency funds so that I will not give in to the urge to sell when I shouldn't. Therefore, my confidence in Bitcoin is still within my limits as I have not taken actions that shows otherwise.

You may well be doing all of the right things, but then if you start to proclaim that it is certain that a certain outcome is going to happen, then you are likely going to get some pushback, even if you end up being correct, and even if others might largely agree with you, they might not agree with you that the outcome that you are describing is certain... even if bitcoin is likely to be amongst the best of investments currently available to a broad section of people, and it might even be the best investment, but being the best does not even make it certain.

Quote from: Odusko on Today at 04:24:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:44:21 PM

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 12:38:12 PM

With the right mindset, to hold against sharp drops in price will not be a problem because the confidence will be there that Bitcoin will always recover.

I agree with everything that you said in your post except the last line (above), and it is problematic to believe that the bitcoin price will "always recover," even if we know historically the BTC price has trended up, and there is no real evidence that the UP trend in bitcoin is going to stop, but it is still not guaranteed to go up. so it is inaccurate to use the term "always" whether you are merely thinking it in your mind or believing that it is actually going to happen that way and that is the reason why you might end up overly leveraging into bitcoin because you wrongly have those beliefs about bitcoin being "guaranteed" to go up.

Don't get me wrong. Bitcoin is likely one of the best, if not the best investments currently available on a widespread basis and to everyone in the world, even though surely some people might not be in a financial and/or psychological position to be able to buy bitcoin, but bitcoin is still available to everyone and is likely a place that everyone should be putting some value and storing it for the longer term of 4-10 years or more.. but at the same time, the amount that anyone puts into bitcoin should be tempered by ongoing thinking that bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up.. even though it remains amongst the best of investments, if not the best investment and individuals are at the same time able to tailor the amount that they put into bitcoin to their own situations.

That is why bitcoin investment should only be on a long-term basis, because to be able to substantially guarantee profits merging it has to take a wide spread of time in between and choosing a 4 to 6+ years time frame could be the best possible approach to doing that, although we can still take advantage of the occasional market ups and down in between the line, caused by Bitcoin market volatilities, but doing so need a lot of speculative knowledge tools and data that can help you make the best market decision at all time and how much of your funds you chuck out to speculate the price and do a few DCA in between the line.

Probably it might seem that I am quibbling about language.. which surely might be true, yet it still seems that the long time frame does not cause BTC's price rise to become guaranteed, even though it seems that if the fundamentals are remaining strong then the odds become more and more certain, without ever becoming guaranteed... even if we look at a longer timeline.... the long time frame gets us through volatility.. but does not resolve the overall question and the concern of not investing more than you can lose in the case that bitcoin prices might not end up going up.

but yeah, each of us can look at past charts and see bitcoin's short-term volatility to be all over the place and we can see that historically BTC's price trajectory continues to go upwards with the passage of time, but the mere fact that bitcoin's chart has continued to go up with the passage of time does not make it guaranteed to go up into the future... even with abilities to ride out seemingly inevitably ongoing up and down battles that are likely going to continue in the coming 4-10 and even probably more than 20 years into the future, even though sure it is possible to resolve some of the bitcoin matters more quickly, but I am not going to assume bitcoin's volatility to resolve itself with the mere passage of time and I am not going to expect that BTC's price is guaranteed to go upward, even though DCA is based on a presumption that BTC prices continue to go up.. so DCA is a great strategy for bitcoin since bitcoin has strong upward price tendencies that are likely to continue.. but still not guaranteed to continue.

Quote from: Odusko on Today at 04:24:25 PM

As I said in doing so one needs a balanced physiological state of mind and also a high level of confidence in their decision and DCA analysis, because failure to follow such rules may lead to financial losses caused by bad decisions because of lack of knowledge of the market, but if you just invest in Bitcoin for the long term base, this becomes better and easier to manage than it is with being a market speculator as a beginner.

I am not going to argue about any of that... and I suppose my main quibble is about any proclamations that the BTC price is guaranteed or even close to guaranteed to go up... even though it is probably one of the best investments currently in existence, especially on a widespread basis, but there are still a lot of ways to screw it up, and DCA and other balancing matters can at least lessen the chances of screwing up in regards to NOT investing more than you can afford to lose in the event that bitcoin did not either go up or even that it might end up going down or sideways.