Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 03:00:11 AM

Quote from: Mate2237 on November 05, 2023, 03:55:08 PM

Bitcoin is on the rise now and this is an indication of bull market. And now that bitcoin is $34k to $35k those who want to buy and hodle, this is the best time to invest.

The fact that Bitcoin is on the rise right now is not good news for the market. Investing in the DCA method is never determined on a bull market. Investing in Bitcoin DCA method is calculated by % compounding as per monthly or weekly average.

The thing about the BTC price is that none of us can really know which way it is going to go, whether we are talking about short (weeks/months), medium (years, such as less than 5 years) or longer term (5-20 years or more). Surely, the longer the time frame, the more confidence that we can have that the BTC price is ultimately going to go up, but not even the going up in the longer term is guaranteed.

Anyone who buys or believes in bitcoin should consider that it's going up in price is good for bitcoin, the bitcoin market and the bitcoin ecosystem.. and sure, it might not be as good for some individuals who want to focus on getting more bitcoin prior to the price's going up, but it is not like individuals can really do anything about what the BTC price is going to do, but they can do things about what they are going to do without really knowing for sure what the BTC prices is going to do.

Individuals are always going to be in a bit of a blind spot regarding the future, and frequently it is best to try to establish a plan and practice that prepares for a variety of scenarios.

Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 03:00:11 AM

There is no point in investing in Bitcoin because the price is going up because we invest in Bitcoin for the long term. Long-term investment should definitely wait for peak bull market.

If you are long term investing, then there should be real needs to try to time if there is some kind of peak market, especially since bitcoin is designed to go up forever (Laura)... so if you are planning to sell your bitcoin at some future date and some supposed top of the market, then where are you going to put your value? ARe you selling all of it, and if not then how much are you going to sell? Do you have a plan to keep bitcoin in your life (now that is real long term thinking) versus just thinking that you are putting your value into something else, and I am not suggesting that it is a bad thing to diversify wealth into a variety of assets (besides bitcoin), but that still does not necessarily mean selling much if any of your bitcoin in order to accomplish such diversification at later points in your investment and/or as your bitcoin value is growing relative to other investments that you have and/or maintain.

Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 03:00:11 AM

But now that the current bull market is going on, it's only going to be short and temporary, and the price of Bitcoin will fall again.

You act like you know something FinePoine0, when it is more likely the case that you don't know shit, besides your having a feeling that maybe the BTC price might correct from here, which may or may not end up being correct.

Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 03:00:11 AM

Quote from: Mate2237 on November 05, 2023, 03:55:08 PM

Those who indicate interest to invest on bitcoin in my location came to meet me yesterday and I told them the factors involved. I told them both the benefits and the risky. Early is the best.

Investing in Bitcoin with DCA method with 15-20% of your income and waiting for long time will definitely make your portfolio bigger.

Well yes... it is true that a 15% to 20% investment into bitcoin is going to amount to your being able to invest a whole year's salary into bitcoin within 5 to 7.5 years, and so then there could be some questions regarding if your investment also grows during the time that you are investing to potentially bring that timeline down to lower times - but for anyone getting to a whole year's income worth of an investment portfolio (bitcoin and/or otherwise) is a significant achievement that should start to help such person to feel empowered by his./her investment, but at the same time, the work is not necessarily done, especially if there remains a realization that to really get to a potential sustainable fuck you status, it is likely that such person will need to get to a point in which his/her investment portfolio is in the ballpark of 20-30 years of his/her annual income and/or annual expense cost needs... and sure there can be some creativity in terms of how to measure such threshold amounts, but being able to invest/save higher amounts will likely bring such person to the higher level questions regarding how to know when they might have enough to actually pull the fuck you lever.. which might be something like quitting a job that is not liked and maybe even it could continue to involve working so not really a complete fuck you status, yet still becoming liberated in terms of the kinds of work that is necessary to be done.

Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 03:00:11 AM

So now the market time frame is very short and the possibility of Bitcoin price dumping is high at present. In 2023 I think the maximum bitcoin price will be limited to $30000-$40000 thousand.

You act like you know a lot, but probably you do not know much of anything especially if you are trying to present some kind of supposed vision regarding where you believe the BTC price to be in the coming couple of months, and hopefully, you are not overly banking on your scenario to be true, in the event that your scenario ends up not being true.. sure, it could be possible that your scenario has higher than 60% odds to become true, but I doubt that you are able to reach as definitive as you are making it out to be.. which you should even recognize in yourself that you are full of shit when you present your information in such a way of wanting to show yourself as some kind of a visionary regarding where the BTC price is going to be during certain periods into the short term future.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 04:56:04 AM

We have to make investment decisions knowing that the prices of various coins may fluctuate due to market volatility.

Yeah, but who gives any shits about various coins? We are talking about bitcoin in this thread.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 04:56:04 AM

It was a good time to invest in Bitcoin when it was $17000 and it was still a good time to invest in Bitcoin when it was $28000 and now Bitcoin is at $35000 and I think it is still a good time to invest.

Well if you hardly have any BTC, then it is likely that anytime is a good time to invest into bitcoin, and maybe once you get a bit more of a BTC stash, then it might be helpful (potentially) to buy on dips and things like that or to consider where the price is relative to the 200-week moving average, in order to get some kind of a gauge upon how much of a value or a discount BTC prices might be... and sure we can see that in recent times (right around a year and a half), the BTC price looks like it has been a pretty good bargain relative to the 200-week moving average, yet again, how much any of us might be emphasizing the stacking of sats versus trying to get some kind of a bargain will likely depend in part upon how many we have already stacked relative to our other personal factors.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 04:56:04 AM

As we will invest in long term plan so small change in any coin will not have any adverse effect on our long term investment.

Fuck shitcoins. We are not talking about "any coin" here. We are talking about bitcoin.. so I hardly understand how your supposed philosophizing to be trying to supposedly describe broader "intellectual" principles, when you are not, has much utility in terms of actually trying to stay focused on bitcoin rather than muddying your attempted presentation with vague references to shitcoins.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 04:56:04 AM

When investing one should always plan long term investment, short term investment never fulfills the desired expectations of an investor.

Fair enough in regards to remaining long-term focused, and so are you including shitcoins in those kinds of long term ideas?

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 08:21:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 05, 2023, 11:35:24 PM

Surely I appreciate that goals can be set, and surely we have to consider what we are able to do in the short term, and perhaps continue to work towards longer term goals, so yeah, maybe every year or even more frequently, we are assessing whether our current plans are bringing us in the right direction and if we believe that we are making progress towards our longer term goals that might have a lot of variables to reach the longer term goals, but with the shorter term goals, we know what is in front of us right now and we can work towards that.

A brand new person into bitcoin could realistically set a goal to try to get to 5 BTC in 10 years, so then s/he may need to consider how to get there, and surely s/he might have current cashflows that might allow him to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, but so then after 52weeks, such person would have had invested $5,200 into bitcoin, so that might not seem realistic for getting up to 5 BTC in 10 years, so there will need to be some attempts to increase income and/or decrease expenses, so maybe if there end up being ways to get the investment amount up from $100 per week to $1k per week, then the 5 BTC in 10 years becomes more possible, but it still might take a while to be able to reasonably get to such goal if the $100 per week is already a bit of a struggle.

Each person has to attempt to set goals in reasonable ways that are achievable, which may be part of the reason that you had suggested having shorter term and longer term goals, and the shorter term goal of this particular person might be trying to figure out how to get his/her disposable (discretionary) income to go up from $100 per week to $1k per week, and if it might take 1-2 years to accomplish such shorter term goal, then maybe the goal of reaching 5 BTC in 10 years is seeming more realistic, but if the person stays down at $100 per week, then there may well need to be some other thoughts and/or perhaps changing of the longer term goal to become more realistic..

Yep, you explained it clearly what I am trying to say. I am not known for being such an explained writer so that caused the miscommunication of my ideology about short-term goals in Bitcoin. That is why you are known especially for the way of your writing style and how is it even possible to make such a wall of text for every post and each user too. Cheesy

Sometimes examples can be helpful to make the point or at least to try to show what the idea might have had been, but it can take some time and space to attempt to flesh out examples, and even the examples might sometimes become confusing in terms of attempting to show (or not) what the original points might have had been.

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 08:21:27 AM

Let's come to the discussion if someone is just starting and they can only afford to invest $100 per week then its okay but if they settle for the same amount throughout the 10 years then its not smart, as you said they need to work in increasing their cash flow without the capital the investments will become less profitable so to be HODLer they also need to keep moving forward which is save more than before and accumulate bitcoin with it and over the years the returns will pay for all the efforts that someone made and invest every week no matter what.

Well, in the short term, people can ONLY do as much as they can do, and so even if they might not be able to increase their amount beyond $100 per week, they might have to soon come to realize that their longer term goal of reaching 5 BTC in 10 years is a bit unrealistic (or difficult to reach), and sure maybe they still might want to stick with such goal in order to try to push themselves towards reaching the goal, but at the same time, at some point, they may well need to come to some kind of a realization that their goal as currently structured is not very likely to reach, and surely I don't mind having some aspirational goals that shoot beyond expectations, but at the same time, sometimes we might have to consider our own psychology can be better satisfied when we are reaching goals (that might be difficult but not impossible) rather than setting goals that we are never (are almost never absent some miracle) going to reach.

It is possible that we could end up adjusting the 5 BTC in 10 years down to a lower amount, or maybe to extend it out an additional 5 years to 15 years.

You can even see from my fuck you status chart, that 5 BTC in 10 years brings a person exceeding fuck you status, but in 11.5 years, you only need about 3.125 BTC in order to be at fuck you status...

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:25 AM

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $ StartDate Gain/Time(days) FU Status Goal
$46.41 6/1/14 182.6 (6 mos) $2,000,000
......

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
11/30/2030		$269,271.34	11.64%	96.00%	$31,356.43	7.42745218
05/31/2031		$300,627.76	11.18%	96.00%	$33,607.54	6.65274557
11/30/2031		$334,235.31	10.73%	96.00%	$35,869.99	5.98380823
05/30/2032		$370,105.30	10.3%	96.00%	$38,130.76	5.40386749
11/29/2032		$408,236.06	9.99%	97.00%	$40,797.47	4.89912626
05/31/2033		$449,033.53	9.69%	97.00%	$43,528.37	4.45401037
11/29/2033		$492,561.90	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.06040337
05/31/2034		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.71141947
11/29/2034		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.40119980
05/31/2035		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.12474543
........
05/31/2038		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455.00	1.97321752
...........
11/29/2043		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375.00	1.02018279
.................
11/28/2048		$3,139,783	4.31%	98.00%	$135,277	0.63698674
.................
05/29/2056		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$206,870	0.35463011

and yeah of course, the chart might not play out exactly like it projects, so there would be needs to look at charts like that and to align them with how realistic your goals might be... and even from the current chart projections, it may ONLY be necessary to have 1 BTC in 20 years in order to be at entry-level fuck you status... So frequently there can be realizations that it is good to have aggressive goals, but if the goals might not be reachable, being able to reach some of the intermediate goals can also lead to a lot of satisfaction.

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 08:21:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 05, 2023, 11:35:24 PM

and I am not even sure if I would consider 10 years as a reasonable long term goal if we are talking about finances and we are talking about someone who might be new to bitcoin, but if someone is already investing for many years, which you suggested to be your situation @jrrsparkles, and I look at your forum registration and it is around the same as mine... and I had a bit more than 20 years investing prior to my registering with the forum and getting started with bitcoin. So surely timelines are going to vary based on age and also there could be considerations of other investments and various other learnings from past strategies - and surely how many BTC that we might hold could make some difference if we are saying that we want our first 5 BTC within 10 years or if we might feel that we want to add 5 BTC to our existing investment portfolio in 10 years, to the extent that it would be necessary to add 5 BTC to a portfolio in the next 10 years for someone who might already have several BTC in his/her investment portfolio.

Traditional investments differ a bit here and 10 years is not that long for someone who is an investor but the people who are coming into the bitcoin especially due to the buzz about its return even consider 4 years to be very long term and that is what becomes the issue of the millennials so we also have to suggest some conservative ideology to make them to be an investor and if they start to feel the benefits of being HODLer then they eventually will continue further on their own.

I think that you are explaining part of the reason why can formulate both aspirational goals and more realistic and reachable goals, so yeah, it can be difficult to get someone in their 20s (or even early 20s) to start to think about what their investments are going to look like when they are in their 50s or 60s, and sometimes ppeople in their early 20s have trouble getting into worrying about their finances, and they might not be reachable until in their late 20s or early 30s.. but still there are all kinds of people, and surely people do make some kinds of tentative plans and even start to have kids in their early 20s and sometimes before even reaching their 20s, so we know having kids has likely a variety of impacts (including financial) of 20 years and/or longer.

Quote from: Litzki1990 on Today at 02:00:13 PM

Quote from: 348Judah on Today at 12:53:17 PM

We should try as much as possible to see that we take advantage of this bear market while the market is fast rising to make our own Investment with bitcoin, we can as well learn to earn from it, this is a preriod whereby some are already being positively emotional about their Investment because they have long time ago Invested while we experience the dip at #15,000 the market is standing in between 34,000 and $35,000 and anything can happen hence that we see the market rising towards $38,000 to $40,000 before the end of the month, if we Invest now, the future ahead awaits our decision today if we are really going to beba partaker of the next bull.

Those who plan for short-term investment will usually think that the price of Bitcoin will stay between $35,000 and $40,000. For a short-term investor this may be a small expectation but since we have a long term investment plan, we should not expect a Bitcoin price of only $35,000 to $40,000. As long-term investors, our expectations must be high and we must hold our investments for a long time. Whenever we hold our investment for a long period of time, we can achieve more than what we expected to invest.

What you say here Litzki1990 does not sound right. Sure the odds of BTC going up in the long term seem to be greater than being able to attempt to predict what BTC will do in the short-term, but we still need to be careful in terms of expecting that we have to have returns that are at some kind of a guaranteed price point that is sufficiently high to remove us from our current doldrums and/or mediocrity, and so in some sense, even though you seem to be focused on the longer term, your language still sounds like a kind of gamblers way of framing
BTC price/performance expectation matters.

Of course there should be thoughts (and preparations) for upward and downward scenarios, even in the longer term, but even there are likely ways of thinking about worse case scenarios, medium case scenarios, normal (base case) scenarios, somewhat optimistic scenarios and best case scenarios, and so it seems to me that optimistic and best case scenarios should not be presented as if they were normal and/or base case scenarios, even if some variation of the better case scenarios might end up playing out.