Quote from: fillippone on November 11, 2023, 11:55:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:24:09 PM

Bump:

Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:13:49 PM

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%

Very nice.
To me, it will be crucial to clear the old ATH before the end of 2024. I am pretty confident it will happen, even more, if the ETF is approved next year: if everything goes as planned already in January, with plenty of time to be fully in effect in H1 gobbling up bitcoins.

First: What is H1?

Second: In accordance with my above outline, any clearing of the ATH before the end of 2025 would help to make the underlying presumption more sound, and then it is merely a matter of how much happens before the end of 2025, I suppose that the odds (and the expected range of each) would also end up changing for each of the categories if the most bearish one ends up getting met.... especially since BTC prices have to go up about 86% merely in order to fullfull the underlying presumption that an ATH will be reached prior to the end of 2025, and once the whichever of the price ranges gets reached then it is no longer a prediction but instead becomes a certainty for that category, so then each of the categories and ranges might need to be tweaked from time to time based on them having had been met and whether it is perceived that we are "on schedule" or ahead of schedule or whatever, and surely it would be nice to knock some of the categories out from time to time during 2024 and 2025, and the more that the BTC price goes up then maybe even the odds for the upside scenarios would end up changing based on what had ended up already happening.

I am not much of a stickler for sticking with old predictions once the facts have changed, but the mere changing of facts still would not change the earlier predictions as being captured at that moment in time. Another thing is that I am kind of just shooting from the seat of my pants, so sometimes people will come up with their own predictions in regards to this, and surely I don't have any problem with that, but instead of what I attempted to do, they might just give one of the scenarios and proclaim something like:

"the price of BTC is going to top out between $110k and $170k by no later than the end of 2025"..

And yeah sometimes it is even worse than that because they don't give a date and sometimes not even a range, and then they don't really give their odds either, and they don't really give any alternative scenarios which even if that might be their base case, you can see that my base case is probably "Conservative:[/b] $80,001 to $150k - 35%" because at this time, the conservative scenario has the highest odds, even though I might have to change them later.. since I just threw down a kind of quickie estimation to attempt to respond to a post from member jrrsparkles in the other thread.. but I am probably thinking more of the "middle" scenario, but I also hate to be overly optimistic too soon and then end up disappointing myself if such scenario does not even come close to ending up happening.. so I suppose even in my mind it seems really great to merely get to ATHs again prior to the end of 2025, and anything beyond that is really icing on the cake. even though anything beyond ATH is also kind of presumed, too.. Why else would I make such a post that presumes an ATH is reached prior to the end of 2025?.. ..

I mean maybe even the real reality of the matter is just that if the 200-week moving average continues to move up between 6% and 12% per year, then aren't longer term bitcoiners doing good? The 200-week moving average is currently moving up a little more than $20 per day, but even if we presume $20 per day, that is $7,300 (365 x $20) in a year and it gives us a 25% price increase for the next year... well the 200-week moving average is currently at $28,643, so yeah our $7,300 would need to be added onto that, so $36k for November 11, 2024. but of course, we likely realize that BTC prices tend to be quite a bit above the 200 week moving average, so the 200-week moving average is a kind of bottom indicator rather than anything that we should be tied down to when it comes to tops.

In bitcoin, presuming fair value BTC prices to tend to be 25% to 100% higher than the 200-week moving average does not seem to be unreasonable at all, and so maybe those numbers will go down in the future.. and maybe the BTC price will stick a lot closer to the 200 week moving average, like maybe even within around 25% or so? But for now, I am not going to presume bitcoin to be something that it is not, and we have to consider to include the ideas of exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).

Yes we want more than just 6% to 12% per year... and/or more than 25% to 43% per year. It just seems expected to get more than 48% per year in the coming years..almost like a given.. but can we really expect more? Maybe I am feeling guilty by even presuming a new ATH by the end of 2025, since that is like getting some where in the arena of 43% per year returns in each of the next two years, and can we even presume that? Seems crazy, even though it kind of seem that we can have some level of presumption, but it still seems kind of fantasylandia if you really think about it that we are presuming an ATH prior to the end of 2025.

It is like the amount of BTC price appreciation that we are presuming should justify throwing a lot of assets into bitcoin, but some of us already have a lot of assets in bitcoin due to earlier price appreciations of it, so it is not even like we need to throw more assets into bitcoin in order to benefit tremendously from it (and why get greedy), so the motivation about getting in and recognizing base cases that are pretty bullish in their presumptions really should go to the no coiners and the low coiners, but they don't even seem to hold similar basic level presumptions as the longer term bitcoiners presume at least 43% per year in each of the next two years.. and your expectation of ATH by the end of 2024 is like you are presuming an 86%-ish return by the end of 2024...and a strange thing is that does not even sound unrealistic to me.

I should be calling you names right now for your expectation of 86% returns in the next 13.5 months in regards to your level of seeing unicorns but I am not going to call you any names.. because pretty much I believe similarly.. not completely. as you seem to be suggesting that it might not happen, but still, I think that you still pretty much agree that the underlying presumption of making an new ATH by the end of 2025 is not even close to unrealistic... so then it is just a matter of how much and whether you might choose to assign different percentages to the chosen ranges, considering that we are presuming that we are going to be getting to an ATH on or before the end of 2025.