Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on Today at 03:18:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:32:04 AM

The fiat currency system is already debasing, so I doubt that we need to presume extraordinary debasement for bitcoin prices to go up 10x in a cycle.. maybe not in a year but in a cycle.. which surely is closer to the 2 years from now range rather than the 1 year from now range.

Just since you two happened to mention debasement of fiat in relation to appreciation in bitcoin's price, it makes me think back a few years when I remember writing that in order for bitcoin to hit $10k/$20k/$50k that the global economy would have to be in such a crisis that any celebration of bitcoin's gains would be blunted by the effects of the crisis....and I was so wrong that I don't think I can ever be as wrong about something again.

I guess what I'm getting at is that the strength of fiat, its future, its downfall, whatever, may not be as correlated with demand for bitcoin as you or I think. Or at least I was proven wrong so badly that I know better than to make predictions like the ones I made years ago (and I forget when those were, but probably around 2015-16). And while I think it's unlikely bitcoin is going to reach a six-figure valuation anytime soon, what the hell do I know? Markets have fooled me so many times that I've thrown in the towel and admitted I know nothing about how or why they move the way they do.

But here's hoping Michael Saylor's hexadodecalogue is on the money.

I think that you are a bit negative on bitcoin, and sure it could take a bit of time for the BTC's price to get to $100k and beyond, but I doubt that it is as far out of reach as you are making it out to be...

Do you remember the 3.5x that bitcoin did from April 1, 2019 to June 29, 2019 (from $4,200 to $13,880)? Well I doubt that Bitcoin's investment thesis and/or fundamentals or the various kinds of shortage of liquid bitcoin for sale is really that much different now as compared to 2019, even if we might be talking about a need to have 10x more interest (financial power) in bitcoin to have it pump from $42,000 to $138,880 in 3 months.. .or maybe it takes longer than that.. but it is not such a low probability event as you seem to be making it out to be, even though sure it may well be less than 10% odds of happening in the coming 6 months or so... but you never know.

Not to get too far off topic, but what do you think about my below numbers that relate to BTC prices until the end of 2025? Am I being unrealistic?

I am thinking that I might even be a bit more conservative (and realistic) than Saylor in regards to my timeline and then also the fact that I have various alternative scenarios and also I have odds assigned to each of the price ranges.. so his 10x from today of $370k in a year is quite a ways out there as compared to the way that I am framing it, and I would give his projection something less than 20% odds, maybe even less than 15% odds.. but it is surely not zero odds.. just seems to be a bit too much too soon.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:24:09 PM

Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:13:49 PM

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%