Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 07:58:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:13:49 PM

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%

I would say being conservative is the best choice and anything above is added bonus so I would like to stick with the 150K and that's the more realistic value too in my prediction.

Of course, I largely put together those price ranges and the odds for them happening in a kind of quickie response to you, and kind of suggesting that there might be needs to account for various other scenarios that might end up happening, and sure even my odds for Conservative are the greatest out of all of them, and sure maybe I got my numbers a bit wrong, but still it's ONLY 35% odds as compared to adding up all of the other possible options. Yet the way that you seem to be describing the matter is that you are putting all your expectations in one area.. and furthermore in your original post, you just said $130k.. so sure maybe you have some kind of $130k give or take $20k, but you did not say that in your post... so I find it somewhat problematic to speak so precisely and even confidently regarding something that really does not have very high odds of happening, even if it could be close to the center of more likely scenarios.

Another thing is that within this scenario, I am presuming that we are going to reach a new ATH at some point prior to the end of 2025, and even that is not a given, but it is a central underlying assumption to be presenting the numbers that I present.. so maybe we might even say that at this point there are perhaps ONLY 70% to 80% odds that we are even going to get a new ATH prior to the end of 2025, and then if we were to end up entering into a new ATH earlier in the time period such as this year or even sometime in the first half of 2024, the numbers within the various ranges might need to change too.. because the assignment of numbers are what I believed yesterday, and if facts change, then I may need to adjust my numbers, and sure it might take a bit of a change in the facts for me to start to believe that some of the numbers might need to be changed in order to line up with my new assessment based on what I might believe to be new facts and/or new logic.

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 07:58:39 AM

Pie in the sky, really 2% chance at the end of 2025? JJG is being Too optimistic. Cheesy

2% is too optimistic? And what about my assignment of 0.5% odds for more than $2.5million. is that too optimistic too?

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% (a 33x to 83x price appreciation from $30k)

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% (more than a 83x price appreciation from $30k)

How would you propose that we fix what you believe to be too optimistic.. since I already put out those numbers we should not remove the numbers, but instead assign lower odds to them.. so what kind of numbers do you believe to be more realistic for those two upper categories? Are they zero or is there some kind of a non zero probability that you could imagine that justifies assigning them some kind of probability.. right now.. not 6 months down the road, but now.

Remember in 2013 we had more than a 100x price appreciation in just one year from BTC prices less than $10 and going to right around $1,163.

Remember in 2017 we had right around a 78x price appreciation in two years going from $250 to $19,666.

Remember in 2021 we had right around a 16.5x price appreciation in two-ish years going from $4,200 to $69k.

I find it difficult to merely assign a narrow set of scenarios and thereafter expect BTC to comply, even if you consider that your set of scenarios is the most probable, and you might end up being correct, but that surely does not mean that other scenarios are not potentially reasonable and/or deserving some kind of a consideration and/or probability that is more than just dismissing the other variations as if they were zero% odds, merely because for some reason you seem to have aspirations to be a wannabe sorcerer.

Quote from: Roseline492 on Today at 09:09:18 AM

Quote from: jrrsparkles on Today at 07:58:39 AM

[edited out]

I don't think there is need to dwell on the price speculation because nobody knows what the price of Bitcoin will look like in years to come but one thing we are certain of is the good potential, so that should only guide us as our roadmap and motivation to keep accumulating Bitcoin.

Your assertion to not do price speculation is also nuts for at least a couple of reasons.

1) people like to do price speculation
2) there is some kind of a range in which some probable outcomes are more likely than others, so we cannot just throw up our hands and say that all possible outcomes are equal because they are not, even if different folks assign different probabilities to different possible outcomes. Some people think in absolutes and are more likely to be wrong (like jrrsparkles). And, other people think in waffling terms about "anything is possible," and they are likely to be right (like you), but you are still not saying anything when you say that anything can happen, and even if you are correct, it is a bunch of bullshit, even in your own mind it is bunch of bullshit.. ..

but then at the same time, we might say, I don't know that the BTC price is going to be in 2 years or even in 6 years, but in 10 years, I expect it to be higher than it is now and even accounting for debasement of fiat... That is not a totally unreasonable approach, but it seems a bit lacking in desires to have some more specifics about what might happen along the way in order to attempt to plan a wee bit MOAR better.

Quote from: Roseline492 on Today at 09:09:18 AM

Because nothing good could come out of trying to predict what the price of Bitcoin will be, because drawing those price timetable and if the price doesn't get to your speculated price it could cause you to start panicking and affecting your investment decisions.

I doubt it. The table that I drew presumes that BTC will get to a new ATH before the end of 2025, so it has already been described in those terms when maybe it is ONLY 70% or 80% likely to get to a new ATH before the end of 2025, so in that regard, it would be possible to have a table that accounts for up, down and sideways, but the table was already created with a pretty strong underlying presumption, but once the presumption is met then the table is 100% true because the price had thereby entered into the most bearish of the ranges. If you want to have a table that has all possibilities, then such a table could be drawn, and then numbers would be there for upside scenarios, downside scenarios and sideways scenarios, and even if any of us might disagree with the odds assigned to such prognostications, if the framework is set up correctly, it is possible to account for anything that could end up happening in regards to the BTC price. Are you making a request for such a table? Or you merely believe it is not possible to make one?

Quote from: Roseline492 on Today at 09:09:18 AM

Perhaps I don't know how the price speculation motivate you but I think that since you have known and believe the potential of Bitcoin you should just keep accumulating and leave the price to play it role.

Sure that's what you think, and you can choose to live a life like that. No problem. Other people have different ideas, and we are even in the "speculation" section of the forum which surely consider speculation to be a relevant topic, and it seems that you want to error on the side of not doing it, which seems strange to be hanging out in these here parts.

Quote from: sompitonov on Today at 09:12:47 AM

Quote from: adultcrypto on Today at 07:27:35 AM

Quote from: Litzki1990 on Today at 03:14:25 AM

Yes, I have already mentioned that the perfect time for an investor to invest is when he has enough knowledge about investing. Before starting any new job, the first step is to know about the job. If we are blindfolded and taken to a task which we don't know about before and if we go to the place of work and are asked to do this new task with our eyes open then how well can we do that task?
Usually, when artists perform live in various concerts, they practice several times after the live performance so that they can present their performance perfectly. It is natural that if we try to invest without having any idea about investing, then we will fail there.

Even though I agree with you that knowledge is important for investment in anything, it seems you are making the investment process overcomplicated. I don't think complete knowledge have always been a factor regarding investment in BItcoin because investment in BItcoin is an easy thing that can be done from the comfort of your home and requiring just little knowledge of how to receive and protect your coins. During the days of hype like 2021 when there was massive influx of people into Bitcoin, a lot of people started their journey within a week of hearing about Bitcoin. Within a week they had already gotten all the key knowledge they need to start investing in Bitcoin, this shows how easy it is to start investing in Bitcoin.

It is important we make this clarification so that new people going through this discussion will not think that investing in Bitcoin is that complicated because it isn't. It is more of a mentality something after the financial aspect have been taken care of. By mentality, I'm referring to the ability to invest without fear, greed and the resolve to give the investment time to yield profits.

Sometimes it seems to me that it is much easier for a beginner to make money on Bitcoin than for those who have been involved in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin for several years. Even I remember myself, at the beginning of my journey I just bought Bitcoin and did nothing else, because I was afraid of making a mistake due to the fact that I had little knowledge. The bull market began and the Bitcoin that I was holding rushed up. But the main mistake here is that I didn't take profit and then the bear market began. I'm talking about this because I was close to a great result, but I didn't take one right step. Some beginners can also buy and hold Bitcoin, at the moment when it grows to the skies, lock in at least part of it and become more successful. In any case, in words it looks simple, but in reality it is quite difficult to do this.

If you have a long enough investment timeline, it still might be o.k. to hold through the UPs and the DOWNs, even though it may well be painful, so it is not always the better move to cash some out on the way up, especially if you are fairly new to bitcoin and you are still accumulating.. so since bitcoin has tended to be quite volatile (and there is no real reason to speculate that such volatility is going to stop in the short to medium term) it is likely that a lot of newbies might not be able to time their first cycle in a way that gives financial and/or psychological comfort to them no matter what they do...

It is easy to look at what the BTC price did after the fact and to conclude what you "should have done" which many times is ONLY clear when looking back at the facts, so there is really no easy way to know what was going to happen with any level of meaningful specifics in order to really be able to play those waves without just ending up getting lucky, and it seems that we should not be striving to gamble with our bitcoin investments in games of luck kinds of plays rather than taking more solid strategies that might just involve ongoing and persistent accumulation until we reach our target level of accumulation and maybe even over accumulation and then if profits might come after that then maybe we can adjust our strategy from accumulation into maintenance.. Even though there are some folks who could come into bitcoin with lump sum investing, for a lot of normal folks it could take 4-10 years or longer just to get from BTC accumulation stage into BTC maintenance stage. .so it seems a bit fruitless to be kicking yourself for not playing BTC price waves as good as you could have played them.