Quote from: fillippone on Today at 01:06:52 AM

In case you find it easy to share:

I did my best to replicate your sheet's genuinely horrible colour scheme.
I had some ideas to improve the sheet, but I abstained from modifying cells or "workflow" of the sheets.

Please let me know if I missed something.

I generally like the idea of having it much easier for anyone who logs into this thread to be able to just take the spreadsheet and the formulas contained therein, and to just plug in their own numbers.. but yeah.. there might need to be better clarity in regards to which are the cells that are input cells (to plug in your own data - or to update such as (k,3) with the 200-week moving average) and which cells are reference cells.

Regarding missing anything:
1) I suppose it might be o.k. to round out the dollar values to not show decimals. My version had shown two decimals.

2) I had used the florescent green in rows 19 and 40 in order to highlight one month's budget, and sure even I am a bit confused about how to present one month's budget with clarity because what I conceive to happen once the BTC spot price becomes 33% or higher above the 200-week moving average, then there develops authorization to spend more than one month at a time, and since those would be discretionary determinations, I ONLY put the monthly amounts of rows 19 and 40 into florescent green.

In regards to ideas to improve the sheet -
1) I think that it is better to start with what is there, first.. which you seem to have accomplished pretty well.. and I still am having so many problems with GoogleSpreadsheet formulas colors and other kinds of formatting... and for example, if I have a spreadsheet that I am working on in Excel, then if I copy and paste into Chrome, then all of the colors and formatting seem to show up - but they do not show up in Safari... Neither copies the formulas... at least from my ways of attempting to do it so far.

2) One change that I have recently been pondering over is to add the dollar spot value for each month so then it would both show how much dollar value was transacted in each account for each month but then it would also end up showing what the account value is for that month too.. So it might not necessarily end up showing the spot price on that day of the month but maybe the average price that the withdrawals were made for the month

3) Surely we could talk about any ways to improve the chart.. especially if it helps to present the information better without necessarily taking away from any of the substance.. and surely there are some of the matters that are a bit discretionary (and perhaps even a bit random). .regarding how much to authorize to withdraw based on how far above or how far below the BTC spot price is from the 200-week moving average.

4) Regarding colors. I am not exactly attached to the colors that I use, but sometimes, I purposefully use colors so that I can easily distinguish this spreadsheet from some other spreadsheet that I use.. so there might be some ways to change the colors to make them more pleasing.. but of course there are needs for readability, too.

I am probably going to send you a PM.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:10:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 24, 2023, 03:32:30 PM

I understand that there is quite a bit of data in the charts and some of the ideas regarding the monthly spending limitations of the accounts are somewhat discretionary, but starting out by sticking with standard 4% per year withdrawal rates and even presume a kind of perpetual ability to withdraw BTC under this kind of system with a kind of underlying assumption that BTC prices (especially the 200-week moving average) will continue to go up at least 4% per year on average, so even if there are some down, years the account is not materially getting depleted in terms of its dollar values (or whatever other utility we might be measuring our cost of living).

It seems like a safe assumption at 4%, which would be the classic rule because at least in the next few cycles it is normal for Bitcoin to continue to give a much higher return than that, although I for one would expect the returns in percentage terms to gradually decrease as the cycles progress.

Based on BTC's historical returns, we could have easily gotten away with 15% and still would have had been fine. You can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart that this last year and a half have been the worst 6-month increases in the 200-week moving average of ONLY a little more than 10% for each of the 6-month increments. So even in my newest version of the entry-level fuck you status, I tried to make the numbers slope downwardly, while attempting to account for the continuation of some aspects of the 4-year cycle merging together, and surely I might have ended up going to conservative with those estimates, but it seems better to error more on the conservative side.. but without overdoing that either.. some folks go so conservative that they completely eliminate that bitcoin is still in such a buddingly new asset class at seemingly very early stages of its adoption curve.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:10:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 24, 2023, 03:32:30 PM

I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.

Well, in my case, and I think I am by far not the only one, Bitcoin is part of my wealth building plan which also has other assets, but I think it is better to focus here on sustainable ways of withdrawing Bitcoin as I am sure that in the forum there is too much heterogeneity in terms of wealth building and having this plan one can get an idea and adapt it to his personal situation.

For example, let's suppose that in a market downturn, apart from Bitcoin we also have money in an S&P 500 index fund or pension plan that we can withdraw. Surely we will be more interested in withdrawing from the S&P 500 because it is normal that when the market rises again the Bitcoin will give us more returns than the S&P. Then in a bullish market we may be more interested in withdrawing from the Bitcoin portfolio to diversify the risk and not have too high a percentage of our net worth concentrated in Bitcoin.

Yes. I think that you are hitting upon the same kinds of Gresham's law type considerations that I was trying to describe, even though you also seem to be trying to play the market too.. .which surely there may or may not be necessities to overly complicate matters.

Because let's say that you have three or four main things.. and I am going to suggest some values for the ones that you consider to be the main things. I am also going to add the consideration of other items that you might have .. and even to suggest that you have already exceeded fuck-you status (let's say by 25%.. so fuck you status is $2 million and you have reached $2.5 million.. .. and of course you can adjust these numbers to what you consider to be your own entry-level fuck you status).. which may or may not end up being the case (of having to meet entry-level fuck you status) once someone starts withdrawing.. but I am going to conclude that most of your cashflow from work has dried up.. and you don't really want to pursue cashflow from work.

I have a little bit of a problem to extrapolate exactly, but I think that any of us who might stay in bitcoin for a while, then we may well end up getting to a position in which the growth of our bitcoin ends up exceeding the value of our other investments, so then questions likely develop about whether we let the bitcoin portion ride (let the winners ride) or do we reallocate the winners into the losers.. those are personal choices, and I don't have any problem putting some value into the various losers because it is good to have value in areas other than just bitcoin, especially during drawdown periods... and there can be other purposes too in regards to having options of places to spend from. So if I presume by the time that you get to your bitcoin withdrawal stage, then you have more value in bitcoin than you do any other asset, and maybe even all of the others combined.

1) some index funds - $550k

2) pension - $550k - this pays out at a fixed rate and generally you have few options regarding the amount of pay (except maybe when you first start to withdraw they might give you the option between monthly payments and lump sum, but I am not even sure if they are able to do that) - unless you were also referring to a 401k

3) 401k - you said zero... some people have these and some don't .. these have options to rebalance within the fund and options regarding withdrawal rates.

4) property - .. not very liquid and not easy to count unless you just have some possible equity... or if you might be renting out part of it.

5) commodities - $25k

6) bonds - $50k

7) cash and cash equivalents - $25k

Cool

various personal property, cars, other vehicles, tools, equipment, computers/phones, electronics, furniture, appliances, collectors items, jewelry, clothes - not very liquid .. even though you could cash out of some of it.. for supplemental cash .. maybe even a few months of living

9) Bitcoin - $1.3 million

Just from the $2.5 million, then we can presume a passive withdrawal rate from all of these at 4% per year which would be $100k or $25k per quarter or $8,333 per month.

I am not sure what advantage you are going to get from trying to fuck around with any of them in terms of trying to play the waves of the market, except if you have a set withdrawal rate for each one of them, and then based on what is happening at the time, then you might choose to spend mostly from one rather than spending from the other or not to withdraw from one (or to withdraw more or less from one or another), and then hopefully whatever you do choose to withdraw ends up covering your expenses during the months that you are in that state of preference (prioritizing).

Like I mentioned, my chart only is about the bitcoin portion of your withdrawing, and my chart already attempts to make adjustments in regards to where the BTC spot price is in reference to the 200-week moving average in order to show you your limitations for each of the months. I think you would be potentially getting distracted if you are attempting to deviate too much from the motives of the chart and try to figure out other macro-factors that may or may not end up affecting BTC prices... even though if the BTC price gets several multiples higher than the 200-week moving average, then you would likely need to consider cashing out months in advance like is suggested to be authorized in the chart, rather than just merely cashing out one month at a time, and so if you miss out cashing extra during those peaks and you only cash out one month at a time, then you might end up short-falling yourself in the future regarding some extra cash that you could have had gotten on hand (without even hurting your portfolio) for later down the road when the BTC price might end up going to way lower levels of withdrawal authorizations. and then once the BTC spot price falls back down then you are back to ONLY being able to cash out one month at a time.. at least in terms of the guidelines of the chart, and since it is your money, you are not even restricted by the guidelines of the chart.. you can completely abandon the chart.. and then likely be stuck in even a worse state, especially since the limitations of the chart is meant to empower you rather than to really restrict you. Of course, if you were to be a trustee of a fund and you are mandated to be following these kinds of guidelines, then that would be another story.. but as an individual, you can do whatever you like.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:10:32 AM

I know that there are people in the forum who have 100% in Bitcoin or a very important part of their net worth but in my case I prefer to play safer even at the cost of sacrificing a little profitability.

I doubt that 100% in works for very many people, and from my perspective it puts you in a worse position in terms of potentially drawing red flags.. and sure it might work for guys who have figured out how to earn in bitcoin and spend in bitcoin.. but many folks, and especially if we are referring to normies, we are going to have feet in both worlds, even if we might have 70% to 90% of our wealth in bitcoin, we also might have various kinds of fiat related funds, expenses and ways of transacting.

I suppose even someone who has everything in bitcoin, they still could use some kind of a chart like mine in terms of figuring out if the amount of their BTC is being spent in a sustainable way.. and surely if they have an income in bitcoin and they are spending less than they earn, then the extra would presumably be going into some kind of a fund (or cold storage), and if the income ever dries up, then there would still some guidelines to spend in a sustainable way instead of depleting the principle..

Even with my chart, there may be some attempts to follow the guidelines in perpetuity.. but then if we suddenly die then do we have a plan for whatever is left in the fund at that time? Do we have an administrator who can take over the fund? Or if we have notice of our impeding death, do we either want to spend the money more rapidly or to donate the money or to just die with the BTC in our wallets in order to give back to the then remaining BTC HODLers.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:10:32 AM

Here I am only considering the case in which both Bitcoin and the S&P rise and fall in unison, but if this does not happen, and we have a fall in the S&P and the portfolio in Bitcoin rises in price, or conversely, the decision of where to withdraw it's clear.

I think that my chart already attempts to give guidance on that in terms of where the BTC spot price is in regards to the 200-week moving average, and whether the S&P and various other macro-factors are overinflated or underinflated, then surely that could affect your decision on the margins, but I think that part of the reason that I have been thinking about these kind of ideas for so long and have been trying to work on a chart in regards to how to think about the BTC price is in order to not have to try to factor in so many unknowables.... but just have a plan that is more based on what is known - which is how far away from the 200-week moving average is the BTC spot price, and does that authorize me to spend more or not, and if so how much.

At some point we might consider is the 200-week moving average a good indicator (it is based on the average weekly price over 4 years), or should be be using the 300-week moving average (which would be the 6-year weekly average) in order to attempt to be more long term in the way that we manage our spending within our bitcoin holdings.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:10:32 AM

I too, like Fillippone, am more focused on increasing my stash, or rather my global wealth, but I am interested in the topic as information for the future and because I am interested in financial strategies in general

Well my entry-level fuck you status chart should help to give you some ideas regarding how many BTC that you feel that you need by what year, and if you ONLY have 8 BTC, but you want to get to the default entry-level fuck you status of 10 BTC within 10 years, then maybe you still need to be buying or earning around $300 to $400 per week in bitcoin in order to increase your stash by more 2 BTC in 10 years... and according to my entry-level fuck you status chart, 10 BTC would be enough to be at entry-level fuck you status by early 2034... and of course, until your stash of coins crosses over into entry level fuck you status, you are not necessarily going to know that the 200-week moving average will continue to go up as projected.. so if you end up overly preparing and you end up getting 10 BTC by 2026 and then 12 BTC by 2030 and then 13 BTC by 2032.. and then maybe somewhere along the preparations the lines will cross in which you might start to feel that you have either accumulated enough BTC or maybe even that you accumulated more than enough.. or on the other hand, if your accumulation does not end up going as well, then 8 BTC might still end up being enough to enter into entry-level fuck you status by 2035. We kind of have to be prepared to do our best and hope that our preparations continue to pay off, and even if you have ONLY been in BTC as long as your forum registration date, then you have not quite been in a full cycle, and maybe you do need another full cycle of BTC accumulation before you start to get more tangibly closer to a position in which you might end up changing away from an accumulation status.

Quote from: yudi09 on Today at 11:29:15 AM

Hi JayJuanGee. This topic is a good idea of your investment ideas. I have read it to the end. But I will read it again on different days.
Today is the fourth day that I have returned to this thread to read your thoughts on attracting and maintaining a portfolio and wanted to convey this as a workplan sheet which is very useful if bookmark.
Thank You.

Of course, this chart is meant to be something that supplements my other investment ideas in regards to getting your whole portfolio up to a size in which you can reference the whole thing and then start some kind of a sustainable withdrawal (to the extent that you might feel that you are out of the investing and accumulating stage), or of course, you could just divide part of your BTC investment portfolio into a spendable amount if you would rather allow your other portion to continue to grow.. or just stay in cold storage.

I cannot recall if you ever said where you are at in your bitcoin accumulation journey and if you feel that you are getting close to being done with accumulation? and moving into maintenance and perhaps some variation of liquidation. .which this could help with those kinds of ideas/practices.

Quote from: Volgastallion on Today at 02:50:50 PM

Very nice post/thread, one of the missed stone in this road is that, when and how to cashout some btc to anything,whether it's to live or for an emergency or a travel ,etc.

The same happens with every portfolio of people when they start to think to live from their investments, is not so easy and sustainable without a lot of discipline and a ton of knowledge.

I frequently come across posts from members who seem to not really know how to attempt to elegantly spend from their bitcoin profits, and so it seems that many times, there are difficulties in understand how to reach a goal of accumulating a certain number of bitcoins and then to not just cash out everything all at once and then end up depleting the principle.. which surely can seem tempting if there is no alternative plan regarding how to proceed in such a way that is meant to still allow cashing out in a forever kind of way and to try to maintain the value of the principle.. and perhaps if the principle keeps growing, then the withdrawal rate might also be able to be increased..

As I mentioned in my response to Poker Player, I believe that so far in bitcoin's history even a 15% withdrawal rate could have had been maintained, as long as the withdrawal rate is based on the 200-week moving average value of the holdings.. but a lot of times people also use the spot price, so they would be all over the place in terms of whether they might be overly depleting the principle.. so then one of the problems in the last 1.5 years, is that each of those 6 months the 200-week moving average only grew by 10% for each of the 6 week periods, yet since the 200-week moving average had tended to grown much faster than that, even 15% would still likely average out as sustainable.. so I might at some point be willing to move my 4% up to a higher level.. maybe even 8% or higher, but I am nervous to do that for now...even though maybe it is also problematic if the principle keeps growing way faster than it is being spent, then at some point there will be some justification to move it up to a higher rate.. and some folks already have enough information that they would be more than willing to raise it to something like 12% and then adjust it to a lower rate at a later date, if needed... so there still is quite a bit of flexibility in terms of what is sustainable and perpetual.. especially in such a buddingly new asset class like bitcoin..