Post
Topic
Board Trading Discussion
Re: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)
by
JayJuanGee
on 03/12/2023, 21:03:32 UTC
Adding of the dollar value did really highlight that a 4% withdrawal rate is likely quite a bit too low in terms of a sustainable amount, even though it might be an acceptable withdrawal rate if the goal is to allow the account(s) to continue to grow... so if the goal would be to attempt to mostly maintain the value of the account,  most likely the withdrawal rate would need to be quite a bit higher than 4% per year, perhaps double or more.
I suppose we could take advantage of this depending on the personal moment we find ourselves in. If we are at retirement age it would be more reasonable to have a higher withdrawal rate and just try to maintain the value of the account, while if we are not retired or if we are but we do not have other assets, as we talked about in the previous post, it would be more logical to withdraw less and try to make the account still grow.

At the risk of over-complication, I decided to update the chart/table again to: 1) add the 200-week moving average in there.. and since it was getting so cluttered, 2) remove account 2.



Adding in the 200-week moving average, and being able to see it next to the BTC spot price might help to show more clearly what is being attempted here, in terms of the withdrawals authorizations being measured in terms of the bottom (the 200-week moving average), so the value of the account had been fluctuating in price more in terms of Spot price, yet the 200-week moving average continues to move up slowly, and most likely if we are trying to keep the account balance somewhat stable, then our withdrawal rate would potentially come close to flattening out the account's value in terms of the 200-week moving average. 

Of course, most of us likely realize that the cost of living continues to go up so much in terms of the dollar value, but if the withdrawal amount (limit) of our budget might slowly continue to go up, then that should not be a bad problem to have, so probably none of us should mind if even the value of the account continues to go up in terms of the 200-week moving average, even if we might be ongoingly withdrawing from it, and feeling that we are no longer feeling any need for our account to grow in any meaningful way beyond just making sure it covers the increases in the cost of living in terms of dollars.

Spreadsheet updated.
Willing to give you editing powers JJG! Not sure how long I can stay on par with you!

Also your colour scheme is giving me headaches! Luckily I am not colour blind-yet.

I am hoping to get closer to more of a finalized version so that there would not be too many more changes to format type issues, and maybe there were just a few too many unexpected format-related changes? 

I am not unreceptive to some changes to the colors, and I did send you a PM, too.