Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 12, 2023, 05:44:48 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on December 12, 2023, 08:51:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 12, 2023, 03:31:11 AM

I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me...[...]

August 2015 was my first transaction. Paid $120, got 0.5 BTC, left it in my phone, forgot about it. 3 months later it had become $200. I remember the market cap then was single-digit billions, maybe $5B (currently $800B -- 160x). I remember I was checking CoinMarketCap. Not even registered to BitcoinTalk. All purchases done via Bitcoin ATMs. No exchanges.

Great times...

So maybe we could say that even if you made a BTC purchase near the middle of 2015, you really were not engaging very much with the idea of bitcoin, so perhaps just taking a bit of a stake as a "let's see what happens," so then maybe you did not get lured into starting to study BTC until the end of 2015, so in essence yes, you got active in BTC around a couple of years after me, but I was largely trying to study bitcoin right from the start of my investing into it.. so I was active in other bitcoin-related threads before I came to this forum in late February 2014.

And, so it still seems that part of my point stands in which we might have some investment without very much conviction, and so our conviction grows over time, and yeah, maybe it is not exactly religious to throw some money at something, but there might be some perceptions of possible value that makes it greater than a 50/50 gamble, but then the more real points to show conviction still might have to do with deciding to become more aggressive about your bitcoin investment.

In my own self-assessment, I do consider that i was fairly aggressive right from the start, because I looked into bitcoin for maybe a couple of weeks prior to making my first purchase at the end of November and towards the exact then top, but then I also created a 6 month budget for myself and a plan to buy BTC every week for the next 26 weeks.. and then after those first 26 weeks to continue with a similar plan for the next 26 weeks, so that would then get me to a year of investing into BTC, which I would consider to be pretty aggressive but still within boundaries.. since by the time I got to the end of a year (2014 - a year of being in bitcoin), I figured that bitcoin had constituted about 10% of the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and so in that regard, I was more aggressive than some of the guys that I call whimpy in these here parts, so level of faith and conviction can vary, and maye the extent to which there might be motivation to invest into something like bitcoin, but then there can be some stylistic matters that change mindsets between someone who is DCA'ing versus someone who is lump summing or buying on dips. .. and sure there can be overlap, but sometimes mindset can affect practice, but practice can also affect mindset.

We may or may not end up in similar places, because some people get distracted into shitcoins and have a lot of difficulties getting out of the shitcoin trap, and then there can be other aspects of a person's investment experience that might contribute towards looking at bitcoin compared to other investment possibilities in a certain kind of way.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 12, 2023, 09:22:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 12, 2023, 05:37:30 AM

[edited out]

JJG we did

Who is "we?" Do you have a rock in your pocket? O.k. maybe that response was overly argumentative, but I could not resist.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 12, 2023, 09:22:02 AM

50 + 0.05 = 50.05
25 + 0.05 = 25.05 this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5 + 0.10 = 12.60 " " " " "
6.25 + 0.70 = 6.95 " "

3.125 + 0.70 = 3.825 this looks almost like a ½ ing

1.5625 + 0.70 = 2.2625 this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like 4 years and 4 months from now
0.78125 + 0.70 = 1.48125 this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing

So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern

We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one

Well if you are attemtping to figure out what might happen right after 2024 halvening and/or between 2024 and 2028 and also after the 2028 halvening, then surely those are more potentially pressing speculations than some of your earlier speculations regarding what might happen in 2056 or 2140-ish.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 12, 2023, 09:22:02 AM

2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.

I doubt that we need to really get into analyzing those kinds of dynamics in order to consider that bitcoin is likely going to continue to be more and more valuable in the future, especially since it remains scarce and nothing about the various mining dynamics seem broken or disincentivizing the continued mining of bitcoin, even if there surely could be more and more flattening of the 4-year cycle, but why do we necessarily need to go into expectations of flattening of the 4-year cycle in any kind of profound way, prior to our actual ability to see such dyanamics of flattenening or disappearance of the 4-year cycle playing out.

Look at my entry-level fuck you status chart that currently goes to late 2074, and so you might have had been able to see that my previous versions attempted straight-line and diminishing return curves, which are largely projecting out entry-level fuck you status based on expected valuation of the 200-week moving average, but historically it looks like we have seen 2 years up and 2 years down in terms of the intensity in which the 200-week moving average had continued to go up, and even in our worst 18 months ever (between June 2022 and October 2023, in which BTC's spot price continued to stay below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time), we still barely even got below 10% increases in the 200-week moving average for each of the latest 6-month periods.

Surely at some point the 200-week moving average might go negative, but I am not going to assume such going negative until I see such a going negative, and it just seems a better presumption to continue with positive numbers and likely with continuing to expect some kind of a pattern of diminishing differences between the time that the 200-week moving average might be moving up versus when it might be moving down and maybe it just ends up into some kind of a straight line that might end up being between 4% and 8% per year with an average around 6%..? and I even hate to speculate with that level of specificity, since it is likely that we will need to tweak these kinds of projections and expectations to attempt to line up with facts that develop.. and some aspects might be difficult to know what will happen but also what affects the future happenings will end up having on the price (in terms of the 200-week moving average if that might be a kind of bottom measurement that seems currently valid but also could become less valid in the future).

In any event, I don't see any reason to tweak any of these kinds of dynamics based on nearly pure speculation and even missing several components that could affect other components, unless you want to propose your own version of something like what i had projected out that is based on decreased mining subsidies and higher percentage of fees.... which again, those are likely driving incentives to mine, but I doubt that those dynamics are driving other aspects of BTC price since BTC price likely has another considerable affect on the incentives for whether and/or how miners might choose to engage in such operations/occupation... And, no problem that surely we are likely going to continue to end up with greater and greater flattening of some of the ingrained bitcoin price dynamics that are based on 4-year cycles.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 12, 2023, 09:22:02 AM

the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.

But it is all a BIG so what? if we are trying to talk about BTC price dynamics, and if you are frequently trying to suggest that hash rate is driving BTC prices.. and I am not sure what point you are wanting to make that is even needing to be speculated upon, since we largely agree BTC prices are going up.. but we might have differing ideas about by how much and whether any kind of cycle dynamics might continue which also might be a who cares aspect, unless you are trying to trade such price waves, which you have already admitted that you are way more into those kinds of selling too much on the way up and expecting to buy on the way down than me, and so maybe if you are questioning if the BTC price is going to go down, then maybe you will sell less than what you would have had sold otherwise, but I doubt that any of that affects me very much, since I just follow my system and it becomes a BIG so fucking what if the BTC price does not end up coming down.. I don't care either way, even though I hardly have any reason to believe that hype cycles are not going to continue in something similar to a 4-year pattern, even if they might not be exactly materially driven by new supply constraint dynamics.

No you don't see what I see. Look at this chart. It is not typical