Although we can say that a full bull run is going to happen right after the block halving, it could be weeks or months right after that activity. But so far though, others consider this great leap that we have since the beginning of the year at least last year when we have a lowest low of $15k.
So for now, all speculations pointed out to a $45k at the end of the year it could be attainable. But it depends on how the speculators are going to do it. They might push it as there are some positive news about the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF and they might used this one to fuel FOMO before the end of the year.
If that so, then it is not true that the cause of the bull run is the Bitcoin halving, but people are only using it to hype things up. I think events doesn't really matter. With or without them, people are still doing their duties (e.g buying, and hodling) in order to gain benefits in this market.
Agree on what you said that people are already thankful even on this year or moment we have now, because the price is better than what we have last time. About that $45k, I think we already hit that last day/s? If not, we are still very close to it, so why not? The BTC ETF approval news isn't new, and I think it's not its schedule yet this year, so people aren't going to FOMO for now because of it.