Quote from: TrustedBitcoiner on December 20, 2023, 03:13:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2023, 02:49:45 AM

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i'm good either way, i'm not leveraged or anything, just some good old speculation with some cron trying to get more cron before the corn fest.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2023, 02:49:45 AM

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well the way i see it the ETF being approved is the reason we had a run up from 25K, its priced in now. So not getting approved means we need a massive correction, and a massive correction generally leads to some panic selling, if we don't have the ETF to look forward to and insted we are faced with a system that is Clearly trying to stifle bitcoin... in this scenario 20K seems very posibile imo. but, it seems more likely than ever before, that these ETFs will get a green light. and again because i believe this fact is already priced in, i'm betting in the short term we are moving DOWN and not up on this news, buy the rumor sell the news type deal, Its a solid trade imo, it sure is a lot easier to just buy now and hope that the etf approval means new ATH's, but we dont make money taking easy trades.

We have each said our parts, and I don't really disagree with anything that you said in terms of various ways to play both sides, and sure, you have to have something at stake in order to make money in those kinds of presumptions that you have, and even if some of the pre-ETF type discussions were likely a lot of the run up from $26k/$27k, that does not even mean that complete denial of such an ETF would mean that we would have to correct down to those kinds of levels or that they would even be reasonable, including the idea that they might have already been quite suppressed BTC prices as our starting point... so if we are starting from quite suppressed prices (just thinking in terms of the 200-week moving average as a kind of guideline for what bottoms tend to be and what is reasonable for possible bottoms), then going back down to either those low prices of $26k/$27k or even $24k/$25k - which was also not that long ago that we were there, but even more so your expectation of $20k-ish just seems like similar kinds pie in the sky expectations for sub $500 that were being made in March 2017, and sure anything is possible, but sometimes, we get to a point where that ship has likely sailed and you are being a bit of a dumb ass to be considering 30% to 40% below the 200-week moving average as any kind of base-case possibilities of something that could happen, even if some bad news (regarding ETF rejection or whatever) ends up happening.

Quote from: xhomerx10 on December 20, 2023, 02:06:51 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 20, 2023, 01:17:10 PM

Spanish guy
Think VB1001 or something had a page with the hats

It was definitely VB1001 and this is the last of his updates I could find (from 2021)-
https://imgur.com/QAuHAJv - it's too large to upload to talkimg but it looks like this:

For sure, a snapshot back in time... for at least those of us who had then been wearing hats, and also we see that a good number of the members in the list are not currently active - and sometimes they will end up coming back, and other times they won't .. but the snapshot still stands for a certain rendition of WO thread history.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 20, 2023, 02:51:59 PM

Quote from: ivomm on December 20, 2023, 02:43:56 PM

44k. Ready the choppa Grin

"BlackRock has gone cash only. That’s basically a wrap. Debate over. In-kind will have to wait. It’s all about getting ducks in row bf holidays. Good sign."
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1736906286388703444

Maybe this thread comes true for December

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0

"If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?"

Made on NOV 1 2023.
I actually think we can get to it this year.

EFT and fee wars should make Jan 2024 wild.

I wonder if we could have a pre ½ ing ath say 80k by march

and crazy numbers to follow. Would be nice.

If we compare dec 2017 price of 19.5k to dec 2023 price of 43.5 k we are better than inflation but not by a lot.

we have grown about 15% a year since dec 2017 on average.

My opinion/guess is that it is likely not going to be very accurate to just take some random period and say, what about this.. how do we compare to this one... and yeah, I realize that you are not working on being random.. but it kind of seems random.

I recall 2015 as nearly a whole year as flat and also that flat had been followed by a prior year that was pretty much continuous downity.. so in that regard, when we got to the end of 2015, we had a kind of fake run up from $250 to $500, and then we got stuck in mostly the lower $400s for another 6 months... before popping back above $500.. and those ended up being different times and different kinds of dynamics as compared to what we have right now.

Sure, it could end up playing similarly as you mentioned, but making that guess is almost like throwing darts at a dart board.. with a blind fold.. and you might get lucky and you might not.