Quote from: Publictalk792 on Today at 07:42:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 23, 2023, 03:11:22 PM

There can be some traders who win on a vast majority of their trades, but in bitcoin, historically there have sometimes been such violent upward moves in the BTC price that never end up returning, so if a person is not long into bitcoin at the time, or if a person had shorted without a sufficiently strong stoploss, it may well end up that the person ends up losing out upon years worth of gains all because they failed/refused to have a long position in bitcoin at a time that ends up being crucial to the profitability of their BTC holdings.

Exactly that is my point view too the potential for significant upward moves in the price of Bitcoin that can be missed by traders who are not long at the time. It is true that timing the market perfectly is extremely difficult and missing out on these crucial moments can result in missed gains. And I think if there is the experience matters so the luck also matters if there is a trader. And if there is the person who is DCAing regularly so he will get the reward of patience.

It seems that the point is that when the unexpected moves upward come, there may not end up being a correction in order to get back in, and we never really know when those unexpected move upwards are going to be. So it is better if we are "mostly in" during those period in which the BTC price goes up and does not end up correcting back down.

We also don't even know once an UPward move happens (for instance the move up from $16k to $25k in late 2022/early 2023 with ONLY a correction to $19,800, and then our recent move up from $26k/$27k in mid October up to nearly $45k.. and so far hardly any corrections) if it will correct back down or not... and historically, sometimes we have seen 2x, 3x or more in fairly short periods of time... but there could be several 15% to 30% upward moves within the larger upward price move... so the point is mostly to be "in" during those UPpity periods.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:09:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 24, 2023, 04:49:57 PM

however once we get to 4 years or more, there seems to be a tendency that the longer that you have been investing into BTC then the better off that you are, even if there might be some BTC price peaks in some of the years that might cause the percentages to not be very different between some of the adjacent years, even though still the overall idea of the longer that you have been in the more likely the better off that you would have been by DCAing into bitcoin as compared to other possible methods, even though surely if you see prices after the fact, you still can make arguments that you might have had been able to figure out how to buy at lower prices. which seems mostly a fantasy, unless you had actually been able to do it, which also might have had been more luck than anything meaningfully undermining how DCA has tended to be a quite solid practice for allowing folks to be as aggressive as they are able to in regards to BTC accumulation and still likely being able to accumulate more BTC, even if it might have had costed them more than other strategies, but there also is likely some value to the fact that they had been able to consistently and persistent accumulate BTC over the years, and there is no real sign that DCA is becoming a less valuable strategy, especially when it comes to longer term BTC accumulation over 4-10 years or longer.

If you keep on investing in DCA manner then after sometime you get to know more about how to do DCA in a way that can give you additional benefit, provided you keep calculations from your own hand and calculator. Its just a matter of time before you start seeing yourself confident in DCA and figuring out when to be more aggressive.
Bitcoin still takes big dives in its price. Last December price was 16k and this December its gone way up to 43k. If your DCA is span over a period of 4 to 5 years and you are continuously doing it then it wont be difficult for you to judge when to buy more.

I doubt that being in bitcoin for 4-5 years or more helps you to know better when the BTC price will move, but it helps you to figure out at what prices that you might buy, if you had started to slow down in your BTC accumulation, then you may stop DCA and ONLY accumulate on dips or during BIG dips.. but you are likely mostly informed by a sense of already having more BTC.. and perhaps even getting to a point in which you feel that you have enough BTC relative to other assets that you also have. Your choices are likely not even going to end up being correct, but you are in a better position to have more options after you spent some time accumulating bitcoin (and also more likely to have your currently held BTC in profits) versus the person who might be in his first year or two of BTC accumulation, but some people still might not end up doing the right thing because they might be trying to keep their average cost per BTC down, and then they end up being too whimpy in their BTC accumulation, merely resting on their having had accumulated BTC at lower prices and at earlier times. There sometimes can develop feeling of futility if you accumulated 4-5 BTC over the past 4-5 years, but at that same accumulation rate, you may well ONLY be able to accumulate 0.5 to 1 BTC over the next 10 years, so there could be some questions regarding if it is a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC, and no one can really decide for that person who is weighing his own particulars in order to figure out whether 4-5 BTC is enough and how much better would it be to have 5-6 BTC, even if it could take another 5-10 years to accomplish such additional BTC accumulation.