Quote from: MusaPk on December 26, 2023, 08:19:34 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 25, 2023, 06:34:08 PM

I doubt that being in bitcoin for 4-5 years or more helps you to know better when the BTC price will move, but it helps you to figure out at what prices that you might buy, if you had started to slow down in your BTC accumulation, then you may stop DCA and ONLY accumulate on dips or during BIG dips.. but you are likely mostly informed by a sense of already having more BTC.. and perhaps even getting to a point in which you feel that you have enough BTC relative to other assets that you also have. Your choices are likely not even going to end up being correct, but you are in a better position to have more options after you spent some time accumulating bitcoin (and also more likely to have your currently held BTC in profits) versus the person who might be in his first year or two of BTC accumulation, but some people still might not end up doing the right thing because they might be trying to keep their average cost per BTC down, and then they end up being too whimpy in their BTC accumulation, merely resting on their having had accumulated BTC at lower prices and at earlier times. There sometimes can develop feeling of futility if you accumulated 4-5 BTC over the past 4-5 years, but at that same accumulation rate, you may well ONLY be able to accumulate 0.5 to 1 BTC over the next 10 years, so there could be some questions regarding if it is a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC, and no one can really decide for that person who is weighing his own particulars in order to figure out whether 4-5 BTC is enough and how much better would it be to have 5-6 BTC, even if it could take another 5-10 years to accomplish such additional BTC accumulation.

If you are not doing DCA and trying to buy only on Big Dips, then you need to continuously remain in touch with Bitcoin price and try to figure out yourself dips and big dips. The only thing we don't know is that the price we buying is the bottom or just the start of dip. These are things you have to keep in mind if you are not doing DCA.

I am not sure if we can make that general of a statement regarding what a guy should do once he starts to feel that he no longer needs to DCA.. because there can be quite a bit of variance in regards to how much a guy might be cutting out DCA or ONLY doing DCA during certain kinds of BTC price conditions.

Maybe it would be helpful to give a couple of examples?

Hypo 1 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $750 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 300 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he has enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.

Hypo 2. (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
Maybe this person was investing $250 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 130k into bitcoin and accumulated near 115 BTC, and maybe in recent times (since around late 2020 and early 2021), this person has been starting to feel like he has enough BTC and that he can perhaps start to cut back on his DCA buying of BTC

Hypo 3 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing $20 to $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe averaged around $60 per week of BTC, invested nearly $32k into BTC and accumulated nearly 28 BTC. This person still is not quite sure if he has enough BTC, even though he has been consistently investing into bitcoin for the past 10 years.

And yeah, maybe we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 5 years of investing into BTC.

Hypo 4 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $7,000 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 150 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.

Hypo 5. (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
Maybe this person was investing $1,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 260k into bitcoin and accumulated near 20 BTC, and maybe this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.... but is thinking that he might be getting close to feeling that way in the next year or so.

Hypo 6 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $26k into BTC and accumulated nearly 2 BTC. This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date, but he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.

And, part of my point is that the time in which each of these person is going to feel that he has enough BTC is going to differ, and surely there are advantages in regards to having had started accumulated BTC earlier, and it may well be difficult for later comers to catch up.. and even the person with the worst situation (hypo 6) has a pretty decent advantage over a person who is brand new to bitcoin, unless the person comes in and is already able front load the investment and being able to buy a couple of BTC to get caught up to hypo 6.

Quote from: MusaPk on December 26, 2023, 08:19:34 PM

If you are not in DCA and have huge cash then buying at one price is also a good option provided you are willing to HODL for a longer duration. Lump sum investment becomes more profitable if you correctly caught the big dips. But again there are trade-offs, in Nov 2018 price of Bitcoin was around 5000$ while in Nov 2021 price of Bitcoin was around 65000$. If you have your Lump sum investment at 5000$ and you are willing to HODL for 4 to 5 years then results will be very much positive.

These are good points.

Quote from: MusaPk on December 26, 2023, 08:19:34 PM

JayJuanGee is our ChatGPT of Bitcointalk.org

I surely have my limits.

Quote from: Winterfrost on December 26, 2023, 09:30:22 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on December 26, 2023, 08:19:34 PM

JayJuanGee is our ChatGPT of Bitcointalk.org

Sincerely speaking it took me almost an hour to read through and analyze all he had said. I have to go back to the previous conversations and comments he quoted for proper understanding so I won't misquote.

I might need to start writing shorter responses, since I am probably repeating myself, anyhow.

Quote from: Gallar on Today at 12:26:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 23, 2023, 03:11:22 PM

Quote from: Gallar on December 23, 2023, 04:32:54 AM

And a little advice from me, when you do DCA, you should send your bitcoins to your wallet at least every two accumulation periods. Because currently bitcoin transaction costs are quite high. So to minimize this, it's a good idea to collect bitcoins on the exchange first, and if you have collected a large amount of bitcoins, then send them to your wallet. Moreover, you like to do DCA on bitcoin with small amounts.

Yep. BTC accumulators should be trying to figure out the size of their UTXOs, so that they are able to have options in the future, especially if there are periods in which the transaction fees might unexpectantly go higher for a certain period of time, and there could even be instances in which they stay high for long periods of time.

If someone is ONLY accumulating $10 per week, then maybe they have to wait several months, even 6-12 months (or even longer) before they send their accumulated BTC holdings to private BTC addresses, and personally I am not trying to encourage holding BTC on exchanges, but it may well be more practical to make sure that a person does not have his BTC in UTXO sizes that become either unspendable or just way too expensive to spend, and even someone with $200 worth of BTC in a UTXO might not want to spend 1/4 or $50 on transaction fees to send it, but if the person has $5k in a UTXO, then spending $50 to send it might be considered reasonable (or acceptable).

I know that some folks had already explained and/or theorized that poor people are disproportionately affected by periods in which the BTC transaction fees are really high and also that BTC transactions seem to be unwarranted for smaller sized transactions, and these also could be purposeful attacks on bitcoin in order to dissuade poor people from getting involved in bitcoin, and that truly could end up working to the disadvantage of poor people who do not figure out ways to accumulate bitcoin without incurring high transaction fees, and so what kinds of transaction options that are available is going to vary from location to location, and not everyone is going to have access to lower fee kinds of options in order to accumulate BTC, which likely does not stop BTC's price from going up, but it does end up scaring (or dissuading) some poorer people from getting involved in bitcoin, even though it would be to their advantage to consistently and persistently accumulate BTC during these times rather than waiting.

Yes, currently Bitcoin transaction fees are still quite expensive. I just checked on Mempool,the lowest fee right now is around $4.52. For investors who like to do DCA with bitcoin with fairly large assets, there will definitely be no problem with these fees. However, for bitcoin investors who have limited capital, the impact will definitely be felt.

I am thinking that part of the solution for the smaller investor would be to leave their BTC on an exchange and with a third party until it reaches a significant enough size, whether that is $200 to $1k would be a discretionary matter, and if he has a lot of UTXOs with small amounts that are $20 to $200, then some of those transactions might be a bit expensive to spend from, in terms of percentages, especially the lower level ones. It is difficult to give any exact and/or specific answer regarding how small of a UTXO would be acceptable, and if it is at all possible it is probably try to let the smallest of them be in the $500 to $1k arena.. which is currently in the 0.012 to 0.024 (which is 1.2 million to 2.4 million satoshis) arena.

Quote from: Gallar on Today at 12:26:31 AM

Apart from that, I also have an assumption, if bitcoin transaction costs continue to skyrocket and do not decrease in the next few months, perhaps the image of bitcoin will change slightly among small investors. Because for them (small investors), if for example they paid a transaction fee of $5, maybe they would think twice about investing in bitcoin. Because in some countries $5 is quite valuable, and to get it some people have to work all day. So if, for example, it is true that there is play by several parties or several people, I don't think they have thought carefully about the impact. Because instead of continuing to promote Bitcoin's image with the slogan of cheap transaction fees, they instead make transaction fees expensive (if there is a game at all).

There is also lightning network, and I believe in trying to use somewhat self-custody wallets, such as phoenix, but phoenix has a charge to start a channel that has been between 30k satoshis to 60k satoshis in the last few weeks which is around $13 to $26, and there have been some periods recently in which it was 15k to 25 k to start a channel, which is still $6 to $11... so it would be nice to get back down to those lower costs to start a channel.. even below $5 would be good.. but once the channel is open, then it could be a good place for conducting a lot of transactions for less costs, even though it might be better to charge it up with 1 or 5 million satoshis which is currently $400 to $2k.

Quote from: Gallar on Today at 12:26:31 AM

However, I also agree with you, that instead of waiting for bitcoin transaction fees to become even cheaper, it is better to continue to set aside cold money to accumulate in bitcoin. Because instead of waiting, it's better to just start and continue (DCA). But on a longer scale in terms of accumulation time. Because maybe all of this happens, (expensive transaction fees) if seen from the positive side it is caused by network congestion. Because maybe the bitcoin halving will be coming soon. Therefore, many people flocked to invest in bitcoin and caused the network to become congested.

But even so, I hope that bitcoin transaction fees can be cheaper as soon as possible.

Yep. It almost is starting to seem like an attack on bitcoin (or an attack on poor and/or regular people to be able to use the bitcoin blockchain for regular transactions), but it is not very easy to figure out who is buying so many dickbutts or whatever it is that the current transactors (fee bidder-uppers) are supposedly so excited about and buying and transacting with the various JPEGS on the bitcoin blockchain.

Quote from: Riginac111 on Today at 01:47:45 AM

Their is something I understand for bitcoin purchasing and also bitcoin holding, the most thing that is very important with bitcoin investment is that it depends on when you will release your bitcoin, but one of the parameters that can lead the buyer or the investors to the profiting aspect of it is through timing before you buy, I have heard many conversations that relates the appropriate time someone should purchase a bitcoin but from my observation I don't think investing in bitcoin have actually period you can invest.

What is most important for bitcoin investment is that Bitcoin investment have to do with research and timing before buying so that you will not experienced any loss, so in actual sense it's cogent to purchase when bitcoin is dip so whenever the market is of positive they will be a profit and something of that kind should happen when you have in mind for one year duration or six months duration of investment

Mostly what keep investors behind of not making profits is that they don't calculate a time and for you to buy at dip that means you have scrutinised the market, and it's a priority of buyer to investigate and examine before buying bitcoin.

I understand that it is easy to get mixed up with the idea of buying on the dip, so then some folks such as you might get caught up on the idea of trading and/or short term periods of getting in and out of bitcoin; however, in this thread, we are not referring to short time periods of trading or getting in and out, but instead ways of accumulating bitcoin, which really it does seem problematic for folks to get caught up on ideas of buying the dip if they may well not really have enough BTC in order to cause that kind of an approach to BTC accumulation to really matter very much -except yeah, the trader thinks about buying on the dip in order to potentially be able to get out, but if you think about your BTC investment in terms of 4-10 years or longer, then you are not necessarily considering trading within the current cycle but holding through more than one cycle.. which likely is going to put you in a better place than any of those folks who are getting in and out of their bitcoin position.. and then run the risk of not accumulating as much bitcoin as you might have been able to and also potentially missing out on the various potential compounding effects of bitcoin investing that more likely come over more than one cycle rather than merely within a possible pump of one cycle.