Quote from: cmacwuz on January 01, 2024, 09:36:03 PM

Happy New years people of the wall.

I have to read over this rake strategy, as it may be time to confront my reckless allocation and "let it ride" mentality. Like others, though, I have a working cash flow job and other tradfi allocations so there was never much of a need to liquidate. I have favored the feeling of saving in bitcoin.

With reference to your forum registration date, you have the potential to have had been in bitcoin long enough in order to reach a status of being able to rake (1.5 cycles or 6 years) .. .. but surely it becomes problematic if you are raking way too premature, and then probably you would just sell way less with an expectation of putting it to work in terms of having fairly aggressive buy back plans - even if the buy backs might not end up working out because there are no guarantees that the BTC price will correct, and so therefore you would have to prepare that you might not be able to buy back any of the amount that you sell, which brings us back to the question of why anyone would be selling if they have not yet accumulated enough BTC... since selling to buy back more BTC is more of a gamble than an exercise in either prudence or keeping yourself in the stronger kind of an accumulation mindset.

Let's say for example that you had lump sum invested into BTC at various points, in your earlier days, so that would be a 1.5 cycles or 6 years timeline to let the lump sum buy amounts run, so maybe you have enough BTC built up to start a raking practice.

the other part would be if you had been DCA buying all along, so even if you were fairly aggressive at $1k per month or $250 per week, then you would have had invested about $78k and accumulated about 6.72 BTC (average cost of $11,600-ish and valued currently at $305k-ish, which is right around 4x profits).

Your profits would be good enough to start raking, but you still would have to figure out the extent to which $305k-ish is enough capital in order to start a raking strategy rather than continuing to accumulate.. and you could imagine if you are both raking and accumulating then you are kind of spending your wheels by selling coins out of one hand and buying back with the other.

Quote from: boumalo on January 01, 2024, 09:38:54 PM

Could go to 40K but it's more likely we reach 50K by April.

That is a decently fair question regarding which first $39.9k or $50.1k.. and surely I have been thinking $35k to $55k was our range, so even within the price points that you are talking about, it is still seeming like mostly noise, and guys (and gal) need their sleep.

And the other part is April..

Hory sheeeiitt..

You need more than 3-ish months to resolve noise.. and don't mean to brag too much, but at least my range numbers seem more relevant if we are going to go that far out in terms of considering which direction we might go or break..

It seems to me, even if we take the more interesting range, I would still be torn about if the BTC price might break above $55k or below $35k.. which one first, and it does almost seem that we have to take out the timeline if we are talking about which one first, because if you throw in both time and price as variables, it becomes way more difficult to put in probability assignments.. even though surely we could talk about April or even the halvening as a kind of deadline for our prediction to happen.. which the halvening is looking like it would most likely be somewhere in the second half of April. maybe close to the 20th, give or take 5 days.