Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**
In late 2015 it was: $252
In late 2017 it was: $1,049
In late 2019 it was: $4,908
In late 2021 it was: $17,839
In late 2023 it was: $29,049
Still on the same page, they both showed how dominant Bitcoin has been over successive intervals of years. I want to ask, technically will it be very much accurate to set the annual withdrawal rate on Moderate or Aggressive?
**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here. I will gladly take my time to go through to understand much better and do a better follow-up
here.
Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.
It could be the appropriate tool to decide on when to accumulate and take profits without altering one's portfolio negatively rather than checking the price of Bitcoin on exchanges.
Exactly, the person who has the money to lump sum have the options to lump sum or not, but I will prefer that such money should be shared into three parts, where one part should be uses to DCA regularly, and the other part should be kept to buy at the dip and the third part should go for lump sum because lump sum to me is front loading of your investment.
Personally I would pick out the idea of buying in lump sum when not currently in the DIP, this could be an inappropriate behavior for me and would prefer just dividing into two parts, one for the DCA and the other for the DIP. He who wants to use the lump sum strategy should get ready to tye his/her tail to a very longer investment than he would when using any of the others.