Quote from: Agbamoni on January 09, 2024, 10:20:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 09:57:28 PM

Quote from: Obim34 on January 09, 2024, 09:23:31 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 06:36:02 PM

Even though there is some inflation adjusted truth to what Greyhats is saying, I personally don't get that excited by those kinds of inflation adjusted assessments that suggest that we have to move the ATH even higher in order to "really have an ATH." But then again, I tend to not really want to get too maniacally focused on tops anyhow, because if we are in bitcoin for the long term, sure we can start to shave off some of our BTC profits at various top prices, but if we are largely holding the vast majority of our BTC, then the value of our holdings will continue to go up with the passage of time, especially if we consider something like the 200-week moving average, which has never failed to go u, even if it has periods of time in which it is going up faster or slower, yet even now it is over $30k.

Around 2017 the price of Bitcoin was around the $19k range, getting to 2021 just after the Bitcoin halving that happened 2020 the price hits the $64k mark and extended further in November of same 2021 making Bitcoin highest All Time High of $69K, I think there is every tendency of surpassing the $100k price not even including the latest ETF UPDATES circulating, won't stage on that cause it's not yet decided

Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**

In late 2015 it was: $252

In late 2017 it was: $1,049

In late 2019 it was: $4,908

In late 2021 it was: $17,839

In late 2023 it was: $29,049

**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here.

Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.

Are you serious. I just confirmed and it is absolutely through JJG. Does it mean Bitcoin follows a certain pattern at some intervals? And if we are to jump into buying or selling whenever we come across these patterns, is it the right to do?

Of course, the 200-week moving average is the average BTC price (I believe including trade volume) for the last 200-weeks, which is just about 4 years, and you can see that the BTC goes up, and I linked my chart that shows the history too, yet at the same time, we do not proclaim that history proves future results, and we are not talking about trading in this thread, so I was not even suggesting to try to trade on that data - except maybe I was merely suggesting to keep buying and accumulating and keep the 200-week moving average in mind in terms of your own valuating of your own BTC stash. so for example, you could consider that if you have 10 BTC, then your spot price valuation would be $460k; however your 200-week moving average valuation would be $300k.

I think you are being more fair to yourself if you consider the valuation of your BTC stash using the 200-week moving average rather than the price and even though it is not guaranteed that the BTC price is going to stay above the 200-week moving average, but it seems to be a much more solid way to valuate your BTC stash, whether you are trying to get to fuck you status or you have some other reason to attempt to put value to the seeming progress of your long term BTC accumulation.

Quote from: Agbamoni on January 09, 2024, 10:20:12 PM

I think pattern exist. And it might be traders who make this pattern exist and occurs at the right point in time. The reason why it happens that way is because traders choose to buy and sell accordingly to that same pattern making it to actually exist every year or any interval it happens.

You can look at how the BTC price varies from the 200-week moving average with the passage of time, and I am not sure if it is telling you very much about how to trade, except maybe that if the BTC price is real close to (or even below) the 200-week moving average, then you likely can have some pretty good ideas that you are in great places to accumulate BTC, and since we are not talking about selling in this thread, we are not suggesting to sell in order to accumulate more BTC at some later date, because it can be quite difficult to know how large the spread might get between BTC's spot price and the 200-week moving average.

Currently the BTC spot price is around 53% higher than the 200-week moving average, yet there have been times that the BTC spot price has been 3-5x higher than the 200-week moving average (like during much of 2021, and there have been times that BTC's spot price got up to 12x to 15x higher than the 200-week moving average like in 2017 or maybe even more extreme of 18x to 24x higher than the 200-week moving average in 2013. You can look up the specific dates and the differences on this website, and it can be difficult to try to trade on these kinds of dynamics... but how are you going to trade on that? the earlier BTC price rise in 2021 that got up to nearly $65k reached around 5x the 200-week moving average, but the second one that reached $69k was ONLY around 3x higher than the 200-week moving average. So it is not easy to trade those kinds of dynamics, as much as it might help to inform when to be more aggressive in your BTC accumulation, but even that can be dangerous if you come to believe that the 200-week is the absolute bottom, yet in 2022 we had times that the BTC price got to 35% below the 200-week moving average and also between about mid 2022 until October 2023, the BTC spot price spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average, even though historically it had not spent very much time below the 200-week moving average.

Quote from: ginsan on January 09, 2024, 10:38:53 PM

I often make purchases from the exchange and withdraw them to my personal wallet and if the fees are high enough it makes me think a little about not doing it twice a month but will do it once every 3 months if I have to change my purchase planning.

You should not be thining about BTC transaction fees merely in terms of what they happen to be at the time that you make the transaction; however, you should be ttrying to give yourself options by NOT having a whole bunch of small BTC transactions and if you ever need to spend a lot of those transactions at the same time, then you will end up equal amount of fees for each of them. So if you have $5k in bitcoin in your account, yet each of the past transactions that make up your BTC wallet are around $50 each, then you have to combine 100 transactions in order to spend the $5k, so it could cost you $2,500 or more in fees to spend that $5k if you were going to do it all at once, and you are left with a bunch of small UTXOs that you have to wait for fees to go down before they are spendable.. so you are creating fewer options for yourself, as compared to the person who has maybe only 10 UTXOs or 1 or 2 UTXOs that make up the $5k.

Quote from: Obim34 on January 09, 2024, 11:18:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 09:57:28 PM

Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**

In late 2015 it was: $252

In late 2017 it was: $1,049

In late 2019 it was: $4,908

In late 2021 it was: $17,839

In late 2023 it was: $29,049

Still on the same page, they both showed how dominant Bitcoin has been over successive intervals of years. I want to ask, technically will it be very much accurate to set the annual withdrawal rate on Moderate or Aggressive?

You have to decide what are you trying to achieve? If you have reached fuck you status, and you are living off your coins, you might regret it if you go too aggressive and end up depleting your coins faster than you thought that you would.

In traditional markets the withdrawal rate tends to be considered 4%, but I had placed that as conservative and growth oriented, and I put 6% to 10% as moderate, but that does not mean that I am correct, and you have to end up making sure that BTC continues to outperform your withdrawal rate, and so far the lowest that BTC price have gotten is in the last 18 months, the 200-week moving average was only going up around 20% annually during that worst-ever time.

Quote from: Obim34 on January 09, 2024, 11:18:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 09:57:28 PM

**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here.

I will gladly take my time to go through to understand much better and do a better follow-up here.

No problem. It is good to get feed back on those ideas.

Quote from: Obim34 on January 09, 2024, 11:18:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 09:57:28 PM

Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.

It could be the appropriate tool to decide on when to accumulate and take profits without altering one's portfolio negatively rather than checking the price of Bitcoin on exchanges.

With any tool, you have to figure out a way to use it that ends up working for you, and I consider the tool to be helpful in attempts to manage long term holdings. I don't consider it to be a trading tool, even though several people want to use it in that way, which may or may not end up working out well for them.

Quote from: Obim34 on January 09, 2024, 11:18:29 PM

Quote from: Ruttoshi on January 09, 2024, 09:15:12 PM

Exactly, the person who has the money to lump sum have the options to lump sum or not, but I will prefer that such money should be shared into three parts, where one part should be uses to DCA regularly, and the other part should be kept to buy at the dip and the third part should go for lump sum because lump sum to me is front loading of your investment.

Personally I would pick out the idea of buying in lump sum when not currently in the DIP, this could be an inappropriate behavior for me and would prefer just dividing into two parts, one for the DCA and the other for the DIP. He who wants to use the lump sum strategy should get ready to tye his/her tail to a very longer investment than he would when using any of the others.

You can lump sum buy, even when the BTC price has been going up for a while, and you can also supplement a lump sum buy by using DCA and buying on dips after you made the lump sum buy, even if you ended up unwittingly deploying your lump sum buy at or near the top.