Quote from: Poker Player on January 10, 2024, 03:32:48 PM

Quote from: zasad@ on January 10, 2024, 02:38:37 PM

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

He forgot to say that he failed miserably in his predictions in this cycle, revising them downward as time went on, and yet he was still failing:

Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction (November 2021)

Quote

This month, the price of bitcoin sank below the $60K zone this month after reaching an all-time high (ATH) at $69K per unit. The pseudonymous bitcoin analyst and the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F), Plan B, called the last three months of bitcoin prices correctly but the analyst’s “worst-case scenario” forecast missed the mark in November. Despite the recent bitcoin price drop, Plan B still seems confident bitcoin’s price is “on track towards $100K.”

He has invested so much time and effort in his model, and has gained so much fame with it that instead of doing what a scientist would do, which would be to falsify the theory, what he does is to keep reformulating it even though it does not agree with the facts.

The flaw in PlanB's theory is his presumption that merely because Bitcoin has a halving every four years, then the price must increase by some percentage without considering the market demand for Bitcoin. There are many altcoins that have their own halvings but they never follow PlanB's graph according to his hypthosesis.

If he was right, then all coins with inflation halvings every four years should follow the same trajectory like Bitcoin.