Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:55:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 06:36:02 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 09, 2024, 11:42:00 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 08, 2024, 08:41:38 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 08, 2024, 02:10:33 PM

For plebs like us who don't have millions upon millions in capital, long term/low time preference/HODL is the only way to invest in Bitcoin.

That does not sound right. DCA works for everyone, whether plebs or not.

In order to prepare for UP, you have to get a stake in the game, and if you have no stake in the game, then you run the risk of FOMOing when the BTC price is going up.. so sometimes a bit of front-load lump summing can be a good thing, and just planning to buy for the next 4-10 years or longer, and reassess at various points along the way.

?
What my post was suggesting/emphasizing was long-term/low-time-preference investing is much better for low capitalized plebs like me than a more active "trading" approach, which opens the pleb to more mistakes, more emotions which also opens him/her to further trading mistakes, and a negative effect on his/her general mental well-being.

Yeah, but you and I already agree (and know) that this thread is not about trading, so there no dispute that selling in order to buy does not tend to be a good technique for anyone except maybe folks who want to learn how to trade and gamble, which results in 90% or more doing worse than if they had just bought BTC on a regular basis rather than screwing around with those kinds of selling techniques.

So then the main questions in front of you and me still revolve around our differences of opinions in regards to what kinds of circumstances might constitute waiting versus just buying right away and regularly... I think that my post largely speaks for itself.. because ongoing buying may well be better than HODL, and even if it is not better, at least it is not "the ONLY way" to invest in bitcoin.

It's merely a matter of personal preference and acting on what you know.

Sure you can account for personal preferences, but personal preferences is not going to completely resolve the potential issue regarding some practices likely being better than others, so you could exercise your personal preference and end up getting a worse result, even in terms of getting what you want. Sometimes people do not necessarily know that it is better to do some things that might be uncomfortable in the short-term but end up having better long term results. I have argued those kinds of points several times, in order to suggest that frequently a bitcoiner who buys regularly and often might have a higher cost per BTC, but he also might end up with a larger BTC stash too, as compared to the ones who are not buying regularly and often..

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:55:50 AM

Like for example, fundamental analysis tells us that the jobs markets "could come crashing" probably by the second quarter of this year, which indicates a recession which could bring all markets down, including Bitcoin.

I would not let the macro factors get in the way of your BTC accumulation, so if you are and have been waiting for the BTC prices to crash since $25k in August/September (which you were), and then the BTC price nearly doubles in the next 3-4 months, then even if it corrects, it is not likely to go back down to $25k.. and the same thing may well end up being true now.. so the BTC prices go shooting up and you are waiting, and you end up buying way higher because the correction (if it ends up coming) is not even bringing you back to previously high BTC prices. We have seen those kinds of BTC price performance patterns in earlier times, and there seems to be no reason to believe that such BTC price performance patterns are not going to continue to play out.

So yeah there is some risk in regards to how much preparations that we are making for up, because we should also be preparing ourselves for down, too, yet if we do not have enough BTC and we have cash continuing to come in, then we likely should be working towards increasing our BTC stash on a regular basis and not holding too much of that incoming cash for dips.... but yeah, the ultimate balance of how much to hold for dips versus buying right away is in the discretion of each of us.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:55:50 AM

- Would you as an investor with limited capital wait, or buy now?

As we covered many times, that is not the only question. The other important factor is how many BTC you already have... I have always said if you don't have any bitcoin, you better get started right away, and the price does not matter, since the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy some.. otherwise you are ONLY prepared for down, which, generally speaking, is not a good place to be.

So the question for each person has to do with their own assessment regarding if they are sufficiently prepared for UP or not, and if they have $10k in an investment portfolio, and they are happy having $1k in BTC (which is 10%), then that is their choice, and maybe 10% is enough. I generally recommend that beginners have anywhere between 1% and 25% in bitcoin, so the details in regards to where they fall and if they have enough still is within their discretion.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:55:50 AM

The answer will only depend on you alone.

You are right that each person decides for himself, but there are still some answers that are better than other answers, so it seems to be a cop out and too simplistic if you are merely suggesting that it all depends on the person, which even though true, is still inadequate in terms of really grappling with the 9 factors that each person should be attempting to assess in order to help him to figure out his own approach.. towards reaching his goals.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:55:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 09, 2024, 06:36:02 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 09, 2024, 11:42:00 AM

For more well-capitalized, sophisticated traders, they could use more approaches to make profit out of the volatility they experience in different markets because they have the liquidity that allows them to use different types of more active trading strategies.

That could be true, but we are not talking about those kinds of distracting techniques in this thread... and yeah, there are all kinds of ways that guys can generate cashflow, and persons with more resources have more ways to generate cashflow, but so what? It does not matter very much, because ultimately we are talking about guys having to deal with whatever cash flows that they have and if they have fewer kinds of cashflows then they can try to figure out various ways that they might increase or improve their cashflows, but I still don't see any reason to get distracted into those kinds of topics... because whether you are rich or poor you need to deal with what resources, you have and if you happen to be poor, I see little to no benefit to be whining that others have more resources, unless you might be saying that you cannot buy as much or that you have to try to increase your cashflow or to decrease your expenses, but if you are in a position in which you are not able to do that, then you have to work with what you have. We probably don't disagree about any of this, even if we might be talking about some of the balances in different ways.

For sure, you already know that I tend to react to the "us poor people are different" claims... which is an ongoing dispute between us because you say that us poor people" cannot buy regularly, or us poor people set up buy ladders all the way down to $20k or us poor people have to strategize to buy on dips and blah blah blah.. which I think is a bunch of bullshit, because us poor people can build up to certain scenarios to be able to set up sell ladders all the way down and the other various techniques because it would be a matter of how much to set up and what increments and sometimes how long it might take to be able to build up those kinds of reserves, while at the same time balancing how much money is put to work on a regular basis versus how much money might be allowed to stay on the sidelines for buying on dips in ladder kinds of formats in which there may well not be attempts to guess how much of a dip is a dip, but just to largely have them set up.

Merely pointing out the differences ser. Sometimes the people just post things without context and think that investing with a seven-figure capital is the same as investing as a five-figure one.

Even though you are exaggerating a lot in regards to 5 figures versus 7 figures, there are still lot of similarities, even if the amounts might be different. My own approach attempts to account for these kinds of matters, even if I might frequently default to western amounts. .and we know that even in the west, a guy might have been considered to have had been whimpily investing 10 years ago with only $10 per week, but that still would have had added up to a lot after 10 years, so I frequently assert that even the guy investing $100 per week is not going to even come close to the guy who had been investing $10 per week, even starting from your time in bitcoin, nearly 8 years ago.. think about it, you are getting close to having 2 full cycles in bitcoin too, so even you may well be talking about some of these bitcoin related matters in ways that may well be difficult to understand for the newer folks coming to BTC, even if you might have considered yourself to have a fairly conservative style.. I mean that is if you had been DCA investing rather than spending too much time waiting and not even regularly investing because you are preoccupied about some kind of macro-crash that may or may not end up happening.

Quote from: salad daging on Today at 03:50:53 PM

Quote from: jrrsparkles on January 08, 2024, 08:53:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 08, 2024, 08:41:38 PM

Another thing is that people sometimes will get mixed up with exchanges versus holding their own bitcoin, so if you keep your coins on exchanges, there are some risks with that, yet personally, I am o.k. with beginners keeping coins on exchanges until they start to get to higher numbers, such as $500, $1k or even more, and then once you get to those higher amounts, then you should be figuring out ways to move some or all of the BTC that you have on exchanges to private wallets. In recent times, it can be expensive to move a bunch of small BTC transactions.

I agree, anyone who is buying Bitcoin on a small scale should kept their BTC in the exchange itself because withdrawal fees are insane due to market congestion which is an ongoing issue since Nov so obviously the withdrawal fee on most exchanges are around $40 so I wouldn't withdraw unless I have around $500 or let's say once in a couple of months for someone who is been investing using DCA every week.

Withdrawing via LN is an option but definitely I won't recommend it for a beginner because they could mess up with opening LN channel and lose their BTC, so the good choice is keeping funds in exchanges but not for too long as well.

Most of them have definitely bought small-scale BTC from the exchange because a few weeks ago it became a bottleneck because the network was congested and then the fees were quite high this certainly burdened those who wanted to withdraw BTC from DCA but were constrained but now it seems that the mempool has returned to normal the fees are not so big, now the Binance exchange only charges a withdrawal fee of 0.00029 about $13 now I have withdrawn $200 of DCA results and kept some time on the exchange, so it's better to sacrifice a little with $13 than to have such a worrying risk of keeping too long on the exchange.

Make sure you have withdrawn to a non-custodial wallet and resume the DCA once it is above $200 or $500 immediately withdraw, that's what I do.

The Lightning Network is indeed a solution but for now it is still not right, it is still not popular with middle to lower investors, I also see that large investors store their BTC onchain not on LN, so make sure you stay onchain if you still don't understand the lightning network.

When you withdraw your bitcoin, you need to consider the future transaction fees and not just the current transaction fees, and lightning network is not a great place to store for the long term, but it is good if you want to conduct a bunch of small transactions. If you have a choice, I don't think that it is good to have your UTXOs to be smaller than $500, even if you might end up holding some of your money on exchanges longer than you otherwise would have. The guys who sent multiple small transactions to the same wallet are likely going to be in BIG trouble when they go to spend those transactions, especially if they want to do a larger transaction that has to combine several prior transactions (UTXOs). They might end up losing a lot of money on their bitcoin and/or not being in profits as great as they thought that they were... think about $5k in bitcoin that had been built based on 100 $50 bitcoin transactions, and then if you go to spend it, the fee is going to be 100x more than if the transaction had been in one UTXO.. .so maybe it could cost up to $2,500 to send it.. or if you figure out a way to reduce your transaction fees.. maybe you get it down to $500 for the transaction fees becuase you are combining 100 UTXOs that were $50 each.