Quote from: GreatArkansas on January 10, 2024, 11:23:29 PM

Quote from: PrivacyG on January 10, 2024, 04:51:06 PM

Quote from: tranthidung on January 10, 2024, 02:43:20 PM

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

This will be interesting to see. If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion. But we shall see after this Halving. If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

The S2F model just became inaccurate last few years ago, for me it's normal, this model is speculation also. Always expect the unexpected, even famous S2F model is failing or becoming inaccurate means, it's extremely difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/C6n28k8/Model-Valuation-A1.png

It is not. The price of BTC follows a very precise pattern over the long run. It has done this for exactly 15 years since day one.
It is a power law that is an amazing thing because Power Laws are very important for natural and man-made phenomena:

https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations

Not sure why every Bitcoiners doesn't know or understand this. PlanB main contribution was to indicate the halving events create periodic bubbles or oscillations around the very predictable BTC growth pattern. These bubbles are also predictable now and the size of the oscillations also follows precise patterns (the bottoms are more predictable than the tops but we can still identify areas when BTC is overbought or oversold).
See here:

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6