Quote from: vapourminer on January 11, 2024, 03:02:16 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 11, 2024, 02:52:45 PM

Quote from: BitcoinBunny on January 11, 2024, 02:47:59 PM

I know I shouldn't but I fomo-ed in a tiny bit of corn.

My 48.2k ladder hit

waiting for my 50310 to hit

as soon as the etf got approved i took out some of my lowest sell bids. no sense giving corn away now.

my new lowest sell point is up in the $60ks and that is very subject to change.. upward lol

I will agree that I get tempted to either take out some of the sells, or reduce them or to increase the increments between them, there are a variety of ways to attempt to deal with the matter.

You can also make you buy orders higher or to increase the amounts and/or decrease the spreads. I am usually reluctant to change very much, even though I do agree the actual approval and the way it was done (which included both the approval of 11 of them and the pretty much allowance of them to begin to trade immediately) creates a bit of a sense that there is going to be quite a bit of additional upwards price pressures on BTC for the coming months and years, even though, the upward price pressures might might immediately result in upwards price movement... while at the same time, any of us should understand why both fewer folks should be willing to sell at these prices and also that fewer folks should be waiting to buy lower rather than either buying right away or being more ready to buy on smaller dip levels.

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 11, 2024, 03:36:20 PM

[edited out]

my step ladder goes to 70k

then my real ladder starts at 99534
[/quote]

That sounds good. The main thing is to have a plan, and if you project out your plan (even if no one else agrees with you), then you have something to work with, and if the BTC price were to go shooting up and fill all of your orders, then that would be one of the consequences of having the order preset rather than manual. And, sure you could have a preset quantity that you have already set, but you could also have some ideas of some reserve quantities that you might employ at various BTC price points on the way up, depending on how fast the BTC price were to end up going up.. while at the same time, we know that the sell orders might not end up getting filled, so we would need to have some level of preparation for that too.

I have frequently stated that I am not too excited about any of my sell orders that are within what I consider to be no man's zone, even though historically I have mostly maintained those kinds of sell orders - especially after a lesson that I learned in late 2015 when the BTC price went shooting up from $300 to $500k and I presumed too much about the price continuing to go up, and I ended up feeling that I had locked myself out of the whole situation because I bought rather than sold, so that when the BTC price corrected back down to $300 before resuming back up to $500 (more than 6 months later), I was kind of regretting the mistake of NOT just sticking with system that I had already thought through and put in place (but ended up abandoning out of FOMO).. so sometimes the system that is put in place can be tweaked in some ways in order to make it more comfortable, especially if something ends up happening in the market or the space that had not previously been thought to be part of expectations.... but still I am way more comfortable to lower my sell orders in noman's land rather than removing them, even though I recognize and appreciate that there may be less chances that they are going to end up getting any kind of correction to be able to buy back as compared to more "normal" times in which there may be higher odds of being able to buy back, but never are the odds for buying back so high that we should take them for granted. so in that sense it remains a good thing to have some level of expectation of never being able to buy back and also being able to live with those consequences of not being able to buy back, if they were to play out..

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 03:49:34 PM

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal Cheesy

Oh gawd... Roll Eyes

You traders are really annoying, even if you may well end up being correct.

There are so many bitcoiners who find it repulsive to be trading such a pristine asset, and treating it as if it were a shitcoin, and seeming to fail/refuse to account for how immature bitcoin continues to be which would include the ongoing pressures that come from being in early stages of adoption that has exponential s-curve aspects that are fueled by metcalfe principles and network effects. Some people refer to your trading behavior like picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller, but still you are free to do it, and maybe you might end up being correct. Perhaps? perhaps?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 04:06:45 PM

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels,

In some ways it is good that you are sticking with your guns, even though it may end up causing you to get killed.. but sure, if you have protected yourself and you are ONLY take as much risk that you are willing to take, then you likely already have built into your formula that it could be possible that the BTC price moves up rather than down or sideways as you are anticipating. If you are either placing odds that are too high, or you are talking your book, then maybe you are nervous that you calculated your odds incorrectly... but hey, you do you.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 04:06:45 PM

because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run,

It may or may not be similar to the 2019 parabolic run that ended up completely retracing itself, but maybe the run is just beginning or maybe we are in the middle of it rather than your anticipating that we are at the end of it. Your assumption that we are at the end of it seems like nearly pure crazy-land in terms of ignoring the magnanimity of having these new financial products launched.. ..and sure, it could take several months or even several years for the buying pressure to really ramp up, but it is not really seeming easy to put together those kinds of ideas under our current circumstances.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 04:06:45 PM

at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

You are correct that quite frequently we get 25% to 60% corrections even during bull runs, so you might end up being correct, and even getting us to the top of the 30ks is ONLY around a 20% price correction, if we consider $49,048 as our local top...so I would not be shocked for such a thing to happen, yet your coming in and bragging about your supposed local top call seems a wee bit presumptuous and perhaps that you are placing higher odds such happenings as you are able to justify.. so in other words, you are merely gambling.. or maybe saying taking a shot at something that might be more in the ball park of 50/50 at best rather than your attempt to assign it odds as if it were in the upper 60% or even in the 70% arena.. The way you are talking, it sounds like you might even be well considering odds to be as high as that, which does not really seem to jive.. but hey, maybe you will end up being correct and you can laugh at all the HODLers who failed/refused to act on such supposed obvious trade.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 04:06:45 PM

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish,

Exactly, we are in a bull market and the trend is bullish, so the odds for up should be up.. which means the trend is your friend, but you want to play a wee bit of a gamble, and so I hope that you are not betting too much on such possible outcome.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 04:06:45 PM

even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

Maybe you are right about back then? We had gone from $4.2k-ish to $13,880 within 3 months, so that is 3.3x in such a short period of time.

Here, in this case, we have gone from $15,479 to $49,048 (about 3.16x) in about 14 months. Or maybe you want to play shorter time lines to say that we went from $27k to nearly $49k (which is 1.82) in nearly 3 months, and I am still thinking that such a rise is not getting you to such blow off top territories, even if you might want to suggest that the current market is not able to absorb such exponential like the more immature market might have been able to handle.. .so that still seems like a false comparison, even though I can see why you are wanting to make such a play. and still hoping that you do not end up losing your shirt too badly on such a play.