Quote from: bangjoe on January 11, 2024, 03:07:27 PM

Quote from: zasad@ on January 10, 2024, 02:38:37 PM

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

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When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Basically, predictions cannot be guaranteed to be correct or not when or looking at the accuracy of each prediction has things that cannot be calculated by logic, so someone will consider things that are wildly logical to be considered impossible, as is the case with bitcoin when the price you mentioned, even people who exchange bitcoin for two pizza loya do not have the thought that bitcoin will be this wide in scope.

I myself think the price to $250k is very heavy, but after seeing that bitcoin ETFs that are in big financial markets and can say that they will introduce bitcoin to a wider public it is likely that it will be achieved, but yes we can today hope and think more realistically, at $532k I will definitely sell some, but we will see what is the highest price that bitcoin can touch in this cycle.

The price of BTC is absolutely predictable

I made predictions since several years ago about the long-term trajectory of BTC and they turned out to be perfectly true. See here for example (5 years old post):
Here is what I wrote 5 years ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

Here is the updated model, basically the same identical model, so I can predict BTC price over the long term almost perfectly. The model catches all the bottoms and tells us when we are close to the tops.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/

The BTC Scaling Law model, which is 100x better than S2F model, and for some reason not well known, tells us that if the peak of the cycle is 2 years from now (middle of the cycle) the nominal value of BTC is $12,5000 dollars.

The model is great in determining the bottoms but not perfect with the tops. But historically the tops are about 2x the nominal value at that time so we have about $250,000.
We have observed a diminishing return for the tops (also predictable) but it is only 3 data points so it may not be significant. Also, the ETF could push the price higher than $250,000.
So let me make a prediction and you can hold me to it:

Prediction based on the BTC Scaling Law:

Top of the 2024-2028 cycle in a range between $150,000 to $250,000.

If I'm wrong and it goes above $250,000 I will be happy anyway (the model still tells us it would be overbought so sell if you want to cash in and buy at the bottom again).