Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal Cheesy

Could be, but not by as much as you are suggesting, imho.

Well no, not really. It's been well documented in the media and such that this could be an "implosion of new money into Bitcoin" or a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event. So far, I'd say it's the latter, but only time will tell. To me it's more the fact Bitcoin has reached my minimum target for a retracement from ATH to bear market low. It's just a "concidence" it occurred on the day of the ETF launch. Ie, not a coincidence at all.

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels, because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run, at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

I agree, I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed.

I think you guys could be right. The chart certainly seems prime for a return to the 30s. The question is if you really want to try and trade it or not though. I have a problem selling and taking profits now, because I don’t want to trade in and out of the market. I want to capture the big gains. It’s like the story of the young and the old bull. The young bull sees a pasture of cows and says he’s going to run down and fuck one. The old bull looks at him and says he’s going to walk down and fuck them all. I think this applies well when it comes to Bitcoin. Patience is key. There’s no need to run.

I think it depends more on whether you took profits in 2021. Personally, I didn't. Call me naive I know, but without a parabolic run & top I wasn't inclined to do so. So without capturing $50K+ I'm happy with $48K. I'm also well aware price could reach $50K to $60K in the coming weeks / months, even as high as $80K prior to halving realistically, and personally am prepared for that scenario as well, I just don't see the likelihood.

I'm also not going to be disappointed if price goes more sideways than down and finds support around $40K. In fact, I'd happily buy back at $48K some weeks/months later if that is to be the case, I just personally don't see a mild 25% pull-back after a 150% increase being all that likely. Even in full-blown bull-markets we see 35%+, which would be nearer $30K in this case. ETFs could certainly prop up the price though.

I think if it weren't for the ETF launches I'd be less encouraged to sell some coin. But given the alignment/timing of price at resistance / retracement targets alongside the "sell the news" event, I found it impossible not to take up the opportunity. And personally, given the immediate fake-out new high since the launch, I'm very glad I did, as I only see price going in one direction in the near future.