Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 11, 2024, 07:31:14 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on January 11, 2024, 06:34:28 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 11, 2024, 06:18:33 PM

Quote from: Biodom on January 11, 2024, 05:44:56 PM

Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021.

2021's 50% decline was because of China banning Bitcoin (again), afair.
Sometimes, in silent moments, i imagine what BTC's ATH in 2021 could have been without that ChinaBan21. Sad

I would say that decline came from FTX selling off customer BTC to pump shitcoins in an attempt to get investors at a massively overvalued valuation. I wouldn’t discount a pullback either way just because of where we’re at in the market cycle, but I wouldn’t compare it to 2021. If anything we are in the start of 2020 in the cycle.

I agree to that 2020 market cycle analogy.
IMO the second 2021 crash, starting the previous bear market cycle was premature due to FTX sellings. Maybe FTX and China accumulated their bearish momentum in the mid bullrun crash? However, i got no solid information on FTX '21 activities, i mostly ignored them after they bought my favorite chart monitoring app and slowly ruined it. I don't even remember the name, but it was OK for my personal preferences.

I remember 2022 differently. FTX did not really start to panic and sell their BTC until late in 2022 ( maybe that was even as late as September or October, which would have been around $20k and sure maybe it was already too late for them), but we had already gotten several crashes before FTX was understood to be doomed. For examples of prior crashes the BIG one was Terra/Luna that led to 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi and Voyagert. Also, remember FTX went from being the savior of everyone, and then that all fell through all of a sudden. The were even in the midst of a deal to buy Voyager. And then further crashes of Genesis and the shenanigans with Gemini and Grayscale did not come until after the FTX crash and maybe it was already into early 2023 when that stuff was going on.

Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 11, 2024, 07:31:14 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 11, 2024, 06:35:33 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 11, 2024, 12:27:25 PM

I'd be OK with breaking and staying above $48-$49k until halvening too, but as we know from the past, FOMO will exaggerate a bit more than last cycle, so i also take higher prices (pre Halvening) into account. No matter what, i'm hodling, though i do consider to set up some minor laddering sells for only the next three months above last ATH to buy back moar. In theory...

When I sell, I don't expect to buy back, even though it does seem to end up happening, but the underlying assumption of the sell is to not necessarily be able to buy back, but if the price ends up going down to some pre-established buy back number, then I would buy back, but otherwise, for me, there is no assumption of any ability to buy back. Are we saying the same thing? I am not sure. Because you said "to buy back in theory".. which seems to presume that you are not necessarily expecting that you would be able to buy back, but you are selling at such a high price and in such small quantities that it would not matter to you either way.. so maybe we are kind of saying/doing the same thing, but just phrasing the proposition a wee bit differently..

Well, as i joined in pretty late in terms of Bitcoin history, in 2017, though being interested in BTC since 2013, i am still trying to accelerate accumulation through small scale sell high/buy low activities.

Like I mentioned, I am not much of a fan of selling in order to accumulate more Bitcoin... and I am personally a fan of buying more to accumulate more BTC.. but sure once you get to over accumulation stages, then you can sell some, but from my point of view, the selling is not meant to be for the purpose of accumulating more. I suppose it could be interesting to know if that works, but maybe we are just talking in terms of degrees that I would not necessarily object to, since I am a bit of a fan for selling on the way up, I just have my doubts about selling out of one hand and buying from the other or selling too soon and then having to buy back higher when it would have just been better to either just HODL or to keep buying or just wait to buy on dips rather than selling in order to accumulate.

Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 11, 2024, 07:31:14 PM

In the past i was behaving relatively conservative, regarding this strategy, but it would have turned out well - in theory - so i didn't actually take some (most) opportunities, being cautious not to having to buy back at a higher price. After almost two full cycles i got more self esteem to actually set up some positions to make moar - at least a little. Sure, in the longer run, selling in the ups and buying in the downs of the cycles would be safer, as long as we don't run into a S-curve. It's a kind of in between plan i tried to figure out over the last years, maybe risking a single digit percentage of my Bitcoin holdings, no biggie.

Yeah, maybe in the end, it will all work out for you to play that strategy?

Quote from: True Myth on Today at 03:07:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:18:34 AM

Quote from: True Myth on January 11, 2024, 05:38:48 PM

Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything. This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes, I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that? So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys Wink

I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.

Appreciate the info!

My situation is a bit more complex than solely basing my fuck you status on a dollar figure. For opsec reasons I'll just say that time is an equal factor for me. Even if I had say 50 Bitcoins today, I would still have a timing factor and would still be in accumulation mode.

*Edit*
However, if I had say 200 Bitcoins today my fuck you status could possibly be manipulated into occurring sooner. Unfortunately, I cannot claim the 200 mark. Magic 8 ball says more buys in my foreseeable future.

In some sense, I am NOT attempting to be overly definitive regarding when anyone might transition from a status in which he feels that he needs to accumulate more coins and when he starts to feel as if he has enough coins, and maybe even with my own coins, I had considered that I have enough way before reaching the fuck you status on paper... even though we can suggest that between 2013 and 2020, I had considered default entry-level fuck you status to be $1million rather than $2 million, so presumptively that would mean that ONLY half of the coins as was depicted in the chart were needed prior to 2020, but then after 2020, I began to consider default entry-level fuck you status as $2 million.... and maybe it has ONLY been in the last cycle or so that I have become more and more wedded to the 200-week moving average (as a bottom price), and maybe partly due to some of stock-to-flows influencing the way that many of us talk about bitcoin.. including that it can sometimes be difficult to try to keep focusing on bottoms rather than tops, even though both end up being important when it comes to figuring out ways to manage your BTC stash or thinking about if you have enough coins, yet.

Maybe my own juggling with some of these issues also had to do with having a certain amount invested in bitcoin by late 2014 as being 10% and then reaching 13.5% by late 2015, and then thinking that I had gone passed my target accumulation level by 3.5%, so I had always there after considered that I was in a status of overaccumulation since any amount of BTC that I was selling would not really end up reducing my BTC stash.

I am not going to claim to know the answer, and if you say that you have to keep accumulating BTC until 2032, then so be it. You are the best one to be making those kinds of decisions in regards if you have enough or if you might need to change your strategies away from ongoing accumulation and maybe more into maintenance and/or liquidation... even though you still could be buying on dips even if you are in maintenance, and I would imagine that you would also not be precluded from buying when you are in liquidation stage either.