Quote from: DaRude on Today at 07:57:02 PM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:22:48 PM

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 09:21:31 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 19, 2024, 11:13:40 PM

Quote from: Biodom on January 19, 2024, 07:09:41 PM

Quote from: ivomm on January 19, 2024, 05:13:31 PM

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

1-High volatility is irrelevant to the fees, why would you leave money on the table? What you bring up is the discrepancy in tracking between ETFs
2-This is more relevant, but all this means is that GBTC discount has been dropping from -1,5% down to -0,27% (as of Jan 19) if you click on Premium/Discount tab you get a nice chart explaining GBTCs "outperformance in last 5 days". Unless you believe GBTC will suddenly start trading at a premium your remaining upside is limited to 0,27% if it ever trades exactly at it's NAV (which i personally doubt). At 1,5% spread in fees (other ETFs are currently 0% fees teaser rate) you recoup 0,27% in about 2 month of hodling.

To ivomm's point, high GBTC fees just lead to reshuffling between ETFs not net ouflows from all ETFs. If we assume GBTCs outflow of BTC10k/trading day, it would take almost 3 month for BTC566k to escape their GBTC prison. Ratio of cashouts to reshuffle in the outflow is what's the most important here (and subject to much speculation), hoping cashouts are the first ones to bail, so with every week more and more of the outflows would be redirected to other ETFs until inevitably the outflow will completely cease.

Nobody knows what will or will not happen...I wouldn't venture a guess one way or another. My point remains that if you were one of those who sold GBTC for IBIT or FBTC, and did so in an unnecessary haste, especially on day 1, you would be losing a bit of money (most of that loss probably occurred on day one). I would decide what to do on day-by-day basis, but the current trend shows no need to rush it. Peace.