Quote from: I_Anime on January 21, 2024, 07:25:00 PM

Quote from: Popkon6 on January 21, 2024, 04:52:22 PM

Quote from: Litzki1990 on January 17, 2024, 12:56:24 PM

Currently the Bitcoin market is regularly hovering between $40K to $44K and a few days ago we saw the Bitcoin market touch $88K. Such a change in Bitcoin price makes us believe that Bitcoin will touch $50K very soon. We are predicting that Bitcoin price will touch $50K but despite this assumption there are some investors who are not daring to invest in Bitcoin yet because they expect the market to go down further. They think that when the market goes down further, they will invest in bitcoins and as they invest, the value of bitcoins will increase again. Those who are expecting this are not now but long ago they have expected that the market will come down a little from the current position of the market and they have come so far to expect that their expectations remain expectations and the investment is not done. How can people who didn't invest when Bitcoin was worth $15K invest when Bitcoin was worth $44K?

For those who always expect a little less than the current price, I would like to say that a small price variation will not cause much problem for your long term investment so if you have an investment plan you can start investing and hold it for a long term plan.

Those who have invested in the Bitcoin DCA method since the beginning of January 2023 have benefited the most. Right now is the right time to invest because investing regularly will make the investment last longer and help accumulate money. Following the Bitcoin DCA method will generate more interest in Bitcoin investment. This is why I have been investing in Bitcoin for 14 months and am still continuing with the DCA method. I will keep my investment for 5 to 10 years so that I can accumulate a lot of money. I will grab more DCA methods to be successful.

That the reason love the DCA method, it actually helps in the way that the chances of you missing out us pretty low. To me DCA method is best for bitcoin trying in some other coin could be too risky. Like when I went to buy a certain new coin back then I keep on buying the dip but for it to help in reducing my losses was actually increasing it. I did till I reach a certain conclusion to sell in losses after the coin even went down the more, lucky for me that I quickly cut my losses till now the coin haven't have the strength to bounce back I fall as victim due to poor research habit. If I had made a proper research I wouldn't have fall as victim.

DCA and buying the dip only really work if there is some kind of fundamental strengths in the asset that will likely cause it to continue to go up in value.. at least long enough so that you can either get your money back or even better if the asset generally has a likely upward sloping price curve that it becomes quite likely in the long run you are going to get your investment back (and plus hopefully have gains in there too).. and no asset is guaranteed to have fundamental strength.

Yet, remember the famous statement from Warren Buffet, about the need to consider whatever we are investing into in terms of being able to have some comfort that if we were to fall into a 10 year coma that we would not regret investing into such asset when we woke up out of the coma 10 years later.

Surely Buffet does not like (or understand) bitcoin, but that does not matter, since bitcoin does happen to be one of those kinds of assets that we could have pretty strong confidence to invest for 10 years .. and there hardly is any shitcoin that can meet such a standard.. none of them.. any shitcoin that you invest in is going to both rely upon bitcoin still being alive in 10 years, but also has to have strong enough fundamentals that it is also going to be alive in 10 years - including considering how transferrable its technology might be to some other shitcoin.

One of the funny things about bitcoin is that it is both open source and it is widely imitated, so ever since I had gotten into bitcoin, there have been shitcoin pumpers who have been talking about the so many ways that BTC was defective and that various shitcoins were better than bitcoin, yet at the same time, many of us should recognize and appreciation that if we are looking at a protocol (which arguably bitcoin is that), then those various some things that are supposedly better than bitcoin, they better be at least 10x better than bitcoin, and there is no shitcoin that comes even close to being 10x better than bitcoin...

while at the same time bitcoin is likely at least 10x better than gold and 10x better than the current fiat system.. even though it could take a while to play out. .and in regards to gold, I frequently suggest that bitcoin has a lot of comparable money properties as gold, yet at the same time bitcoin is in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold so it is likely going to reach around 1,000x the market cap of gold.. even though it could take 50 to 200 years in order for such fair value balances to be achieved... so at today's prices, bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, so bitcoin has like around 20,000x more price appreciation in comparison to gold.. ..

and yeah, sure I am giving rough approximations that may or may not end up being correct... I don't really know, but it seems that it might not really matter very much if I am right in absolute terms, but it may well matter if there is some directional rightness with any investment choices that any of us make.. and we have to come to our own conclusions regarding the investment thesis and the strength of such investment thesis.

Quote from: I_Anime on January 21, 2024, 07:25:00 PM

That why is good to always take your time and makes proper research before investing in any projects. Like bitcoin now DCA method just the best, just keep buying the dip even this time around bitcoin still finding difficult to beat $44k. Bitcoin just gathering strength because I the next rise its beating the price range of 40k and hitting price range of $50k even more than. According to JayJuanGee bitcoin is a life investment so just keep the DCA strategies going.

I agree that I said that bitcoin is likely a life long investment, yet at the same time, each of us still needs to figure out what level of balance that we are going to have into bitcoin, including that we likely have to have balances in both fiat and in bitcoin since it is quite likely that a lot of our expenses are denominated in fiat, and so in that regard, we need to figure out how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of bitcoin accumulation and then once we reach an accumulation level that is suitable and appropriate for ourselves, then at that point we still would likely need to enter into some kind of a maintenance practice that is suitable to our situation and may or may not involve further BTC accumulation.

Quote from: ginsan on January 21, 2024, 08:30:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 20, 2024, 09:38:17 PM

Quote from: ginsan on January 20, 2024, 08:48:40 PM

In my opinion, long-term investment in bitcoin can yield greater ROI than those who trade daily. For this reason, our mission is long term and every month we set aside our income to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a limited supply so it is not surprising that currently large companies are starting to buy more BTC for them to store. So we don't back down to them, that is, we stick to our position of buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.

Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

They only speculate which has no root solution that daily trading provides more effective ROI than being a holder. But in reality, in the last 6 years, it is the holders who have managed to get bigger profits. So for that reason their perception is completely inaccurate and only comes to compare things that may not make sense to us. I even think that you are one of the early adopters who applied DCA in your investments and now you are successful so those of us who are still early certainly need to learn from what you have done in holding Bitcoin for a long period.

Apart from that, many of the Bitcoin holders regret their decision to sell their Bitcoin holdings early, another reason is that they are tempted by the near profit and at the same time they do not make any more purchases and that is a reckless action because they have dashed their hopes for make huge profits if they don't sell their bitcoin holdings early.

I think that you highlight some decent points, especially when we get to your second paragraph and we start to consider what we might do when we might want to take some profits from time to time, and surely if we are taking profits way too early and we are taking too many profits, then we surely run the risk of either not accumulating enough BTC or not really being in a place in which we should be taking profits, and I surely don't have any problems with taking profits, and probably the way that we take profits has to be tempered and tailored to the size of our BTC stash and including whether we have plans to buy back and how that might work out because if we sell to consume then we might not have enough value in other places to be able to buy back absent a considerable BTC price drop and surely we cannot rely upon BTC price drops coming after we sold some BTC merely because we did it.

And, I did use to think that there could be ways to improve upon DCAing by incorporating buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but part of the problem is that if someone is early in his BTC accumulation journey then he can quickly end up losing focus, and if he is selling on the way up, then he could get into a conflicting situation in which he still needs to accumulate so the BTC price is getting higher than his previous sell points, and he may well have been better off to just continuing to buy, to not have sold and just stop being so petty in regards to thoughts that his average cost per BTC might be going up, since probably the most important thing is that his number of BTC (or satoshis) is continuing to go up.

Quote from: Troytech on January 21, 2024, 08:50:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 21, 2024, 02:23:29 PM

Both of you are talking as if bitcoin is guaranteed.. and sure you may end up being right about bitcoin going up and being the best of investments, but still your way of talking seems both strange and dangerous.. even though surely people do get excited in those kind of ways about bitcoin..but still it seems misleading and maybe not evven healthy to be thinking or talking about bitcoin as if it were guaranteed.

With respect to this sir, is thinking in an overly confident way about bitcoin bad, does it have a negative impact on our investment psychology or mindset

I think that we always need to keep in mind various negative price scenarios and even possibilities that bitcoin's price could spiral downwardly, even if the odds are not very high and they are likely getting smaller and smaller with the passage of time and in terms of bitcoin's ongoing Lindy effect of continuing to exist without breaking... but at the same time, we likely need to keep these ideas in mind in terms of managing our own finances and psychology and also in terms of how we talk about bitcoin with others...

So we can still fairly aggressively invest into something like bitcoin, but we should also attempt to maintain some balance in our life and including making sure that we have certain kinds of fiat cushions that will allow us to pay for our various ongoing expenses without having to dip into our bitcoin, especially we could end up going through periods that last several years in which bitcoin is either below our costs but also that it keeps going down in price... and so in those kinds of phases, we might continue to buy BTC, especially if we don't have a lot of it, but even if we have a lot of it, there can sometimes be some concerns about how much we can continue to buy, especially if the BTC price keeps going down, so in those kinds of cases it is good if we have cashflow coming from work or from other kinds of assets.

Quote from: Troytech on January 21, 2024, 08:50:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 21, 2024, 01:08:19 AM

Past results do not guarantee future performance, and frequently we will beat up on the traders because they end up not being able to out perform or even come close to performing similar to DCA strategies that tend to take way less work and cause way less stress, but the fact that DCA has historically been a great approach does not guarantee that we will continue to win in that area.

We may not always get our desired result with our DCA method at first but on the long run we tend to be at a better advantage than traders, cause our view of bitcoin as an asset is different, we see bitcoin more as a good store of value and its potential to grow and survive through hard market conditions but traders are their to take advantage of bitcoins volatile nature to make short profits from buying and selling at the right time, which on turn might not favour them, cause one thing is guaranteed in bitcoin, you can never truly predict the market and sometimes as you said before traders who want short profit may end up holding their bitcoin for a while till the market Alligns with their predictions. But we long term holders always tend to be at an advantage even if not a 100% guarantee that we would always be favoured by the market.

As long as bitcoin continues to go up in price, we have greater chances to out perform traders, so one of the problems that traders have had, especially with bitcoin is that over the last 12 years or more, they have sometimes been on the wrong side of some upward price move that ends up either never correcting or that it corrects in such a way that is not easy to trade, and so they would have likely been way better off to just buy and not be fucking around so much.

However, if the asset is really volatile and largely not going up very much in value or even going down in value, then the traders have way better chances to outperform the HODLers, and so we cannot really be sure about bitcoin's future performance, even though we may well continue to try to bank on some of the theories that bitcoin has a lot of ongoing upward price potential that includes various underlying assessments of why it has such sound money, digital scarcity and censorship resistance strengths that contribute towards the three strongest of underlying price theories in regards to bitcoin that the traders might not be able to time as well as they believe that they are able to accomplish.. which is the 1) stock to flow, 2) the four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).

It is not guaranteed that the BTC HODLer / persistent and consistent DCA accumulator is going to outperform the trader, even though historically it has been true, yet persistent, consistent and even aggressive BTC accumulation is likely a pretty solid way forward especially for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner, and how much BTC they need to stack is surely a bit of a question that is based on their assessment of at least their 9 factors.

Quote from: Troytech on January 21, 2024, 08:50:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 21, 2024, 01:08:19 AM

I recall that when I used to project my BTC accumulation amounts, I would project out various scenarios that anticipated worse case, medium case and best case BTC price performance scenarios, so that I could already see the approximate amount of cash that I would be putting in and how many BTC that I would have under the various scenarios... and after certain passages of time, so some of the worse case scenarios might have negative returns and then there would also be 0% returns, and then there would be variations of positive returns such as 3%, 6%, 12% or 20%, so the I could see how much I would be anticipated to put in up until the date of projection, how many BTC I would get under various scenarios, what the price of the BTC would be and what the value of my stash would be, and surely in the longer run my performance ended up gravitating towards beating the most bullish of the expectations that I had outlined, even though in the short term my BTC price performance was leaning towards the worse of the expectation, which the worse performance resulted in more BTC being accumulated, so the accumulation of more BTC ended up causing the amount of BTC that I thought that I would have had accumulate go up, so we know what that ends up meaning (a couple years later) for when the BTC price finally did start to go up... so in the beginning there could end up being some advantages of the asset (BTC in this case) underperforming expectations.

What would your worst case senerio of the Market be like, is it when the price goes up or down.

Don't you consider that best or worse case scenarios are going to be largely tailored to the individual because if you are a newbie to bitcoin and even in a stage in which you might be mostly accumulating bitcoin for 5-10 years or longer, then you likely would be more advantaged for the BTC price to go down or to not go up so fast until you have at least had some time to build your stash, but if you largely established your stash then you should already be in a position that you are advantaged way more by the BTC price going up rather than down.

You likely have to plan around your own situation in terms of where you are holding your wealth, and I would imagine that the longer that any of us are investing, we are going to end up creating techniques to account for the assets that we hold, and I believe that part of the reason that I had transitioned some of my own thinking about BTC in mid-to-late 2015-ish was because I had largely already concluded that I was likely going to continue to hold onto bitcoin for a long time (perhaps for life) and that I also already realized that bitcoin was going to continue to be volatile, so I had to structure some kind of a system in which I could deal with that likely inevitable ongoing volatility, even though I was going to error on the side of mostly HODLing bitcoin... and so I had largely concluded that I had accumulated enough BTC as of late 2014, but then I continued to accumulate BTC through 2015, so I had largely concluded that the BTC that I accumulated between late 2014 and late 2015 was mostly excessive, which helped to guide me in my formulation of what I was going to do and how I was going to handle my own BTC holdings as compared with other assets that I held.

So the creation of worse, best and medium scenarios might be framed in one kind of way when we are in our earlier or mid BTC accumulation modes, as compared if we might be in more of a maintenance mode and maybe if we might end up gravitating more towards liquidation, if we might consider starting to just live off our BTC... but even accumulation, maintenance and liquidation can have various kinds of mixed kinds of behaviors of figuring out points to buy or sell BTC.

I doubt that I should be needing to elaborate a lot more in the creation of worse, best and medium scenarios, because there are a lot of individuality including even considering various timelines if you are younger than you have a lot of various timelines, and if you are older you might not have as many timeline possibilities to outline.

Quote from: Troytech on January 21, 2024, 08:50:54 PM

Cause if I am an early accumulator, my worst case senerio would be an uptrend, that's is if I've not been lump summing along side my DCA and my best case would be when the market dips and I get to buy bitcoin at a cheaper rate and probably more. Then a medium case would when it maintains price range then my accumulation would just kind of be normal. Does this suit your senerio explanation or is it vice Vera on your end?

I think that your understanding sounds largely correct, and so you can consider accumulating 1-2 years, and then maybe 4-6 years and maybe even 10 years or more, and so if you project out further your worse, best and medium scenarios are going to change, and they are going to be changing as you go along, so yeah, it would work out pretty good if the BTC price either goes down or does not go up very much while you are accumulating and then mostly goes up later down the road, after you have built some decent stash.

But there could be scenarios that you build and build and then you expect the price to do up but it keeps going down or stays flat or really fails to go up. and then maybe some other bad things happen to bitcoin (and/or even in your life) where you are faced with having to figure out if you have to liquidate some or all of your BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing... so you could attempt to prepare for those kinds of scenarios too.. and how much preparation to make in any scenario should be somewhat proportional to how likely it is to happen, so if there is some 1-5% odds of some kind of Armageddon scenarios playing out, then you probably should not be spending more than 1-5% of psychology or resources to prepare for such a scenario, but you also probably should not be putting zero preparation into such scenarios either... as time goes on we can see that some scenarios become more likely or less likely, so we might have some scenarios that are low odds that end up playing out, and there could be some regionality to the scenarios too. so we should be careful in regards to making sure that we are prepared for various things, including how difficult it can be to be your own bank.

Let's say that you spend 10 years accumulating bitcoin and through that whole time you invest between $10 and $1k per week into bitcoin, and maybe you end up accumulating 1.5 bitcoin in 10 years for an average cost of around $100k per BTC, and perhaps in early 2034, bitcoin prices are bouncing around anywhere between $400k and $600k per BTC, and so maybe you hold 90% of your BTC and you have the other 10% in various 3rd party services... so maybe your BTC are worth somewhere around $800k (in today's dollars), so it would be pretty irresponsible if you were to have your private keys, your back up and your Trezor (or whatever might be the hardware devices that you are using) in your house and it burns down, so as your wealth increases then you likely have to take more and more measures to make sure that you are protecting yourself from worse case scenarios, even if such worse case scenarios exist and you might not have had thought of all of them in the beginning, but they become more important the longer that you are accumulating BTC and presumptively holding your own keys..