Quote from: Greyhats on January 22, 2024, 04:18:12 PM

for 2024 I tripled my dca amounts, and i did a little bit of guessing;
- I think that for this year my avg cost price will be about 45k$usd
- 2025 ATH will be about 140k$usd and with the next correction cycle the ATL will be 49k - 56k$usd range
My thought process is that I'm accumulating now in 2024 at the probably the next ATL range in 2026/7.

Im not overly concerned about avg cost price, and that was my biggest learning from 2023. I ran the numbers and I would prefer to have more btc and higher avg cost price, than less btc and a lower cost price.

Historically you can see similar kinds of outcomes. The guy who bought 20 BTC in 2015 for an average of around $300 per BTC and sat on them for 8-ish years, is likely worse off than the guy who started buying BTC aggressively near the 2015 $500 price peak, and maybe the second guy did not lump sum with as much (maybe half) but he continued to buy every week or maybe even an equivalent amount of BTC every year as the guy who had lump summed into BTC and then sat on his investment.

Quote from: Greyhats on January 22, 2024, 04:18:12 PM

I'm quite liking the resiliency of the btc market in light of all this etf stuff, i'm starting to think that this might disrupt the 4 yr cycle though in the future. I would imagine too that the skittishness of wall street may also cause deeper dips too, as much as people are bullish on new money entering the market, the money leaving the market could also increase. Is it about to get wilder in the wild wild west?

I would not count out the four-year cycle until maybe after there is evidence of it disappearing rather than speculating that it might disappear. there is not even any strong evidence to suggest the 4-year cycle is going to disappear, merely because BIGGER player have gotten into BTC and are likely trying to manipulate it.

Quote from: Lucius on January 22, 2024, 04:21:46 PM

Looking at the bigger picture, nothing bad is happening - everyone who thinks the price is too high will have the opportunity to buy cheaper, and on the other hand, the more Grayscale sells, the better for the future. Such a concentration of BTC in the possession of only one company is always nothing but a big risk.

The Grayscale sold BTC seems to be going to Black Rock and maybe Fidelity.. so a shifting of the risk rather than an elimination of the risk, but we will see.

Quote from: DaRude on January 22, 2024, 07:49:22 PM

Quote from: Biodom on January 22, 2024, 04:21:05 PM

Quote from: ivomm on January 22, 2024, 02:41:11 PM

Today's #Bitcoin sent to Coinbase by $GBTC/Grayscale comes out to be 18.3K $BTC or ~$740M worth.
https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1749438652390732048
Now they are down from 619 000BTC to 534 000BTC, which is 13.7%. Today's outflow is not counted in
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50

This can be a poll question: when this outflow will stop: at 0BTC, 1-100BTC, etc. Or when it will stop - this week, next week or in, say, 10 weeks.

Yea....so what if others pick it up and more.
This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance).
I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying.

As of 19th GBTC had BTC566,973 in the fund, the claim that they lost BTC18,3k today, and the days isn't even over, is hard for me to believe but would be nice to see, pull that band-aid off already! Where the 534 000BTC number came from i couldn't follow at all Huh

percentage of dormant bitcoin in GBTC would be interesting to speculate on, but they've been seeing average outflows of about BTC12k per trading day, so at this rate about 46 more trading days until they hit 0.

And that's the root of the problem, market doesn't believe that others are picking it up and more

I had been thinking that most of the outflows would be from tax privileged accounts, and that the non-taxed privileged accounts would likely not want to incur a tax event by selling their GBTC. I wonder how many of the GBTC shares were held by tax privileged accounts as compared with non-tax privileged accounts.

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 22, 2024, 07:50:21 PM

I got 2 pieces in the 39.5k - 39.8k range.

My Ladder goes down to 33224

Get your corn on sale

At this rate, we might get to the bottom of the don't wake me up zone. Fuck!!! Then there might be a need to wake up and possibly do something... I mean that waking up would me that I may well need to look at my orders and those kinds of things.

Quote from: Agapios on January 22, 2024, 08:11:33 PM

Hi guys in last month I have been always asking my self one question, one scenario about ETF and I dont see such thing mentioned on news, so if someone can please explains me what i am thinking wrong, because i bet there is some protection again such scenario or I am thinking something on wrong way.

So like i understand largest bitcoin holders (if we count out Satoshi Nakamoto who could benefit even more) have around 100k bitcoins right ? and if someone out of them would put all on them at once on sell he would drag price down a lot right ? I assume we would go down to 30k, 20k ?

So why he cant do this if he have money to also enter into ETF big scale. Or perhaps thats plan of people at Blackrock, Grayscale?

I am thinking on next scenario.
One of top bitcoin holders enter ETF, put shorts on ETF, dump all their bitcoin, wait for dust to settle, close shorts on ETF, he go LONG, he buys again bitcoin

What am i thinking wrong ? if Satoshi nakamoto was some big company who could quickly buy ETF on large scale he could get fast insanely right and get a hold of even larger sum of bitcoin ?
What am i thinking wrong? This probably cant happen because of?

Individual holders can do what you are saying, and it is thought that Satoshi would have around 1 million bitcoins rather than 100k bitcoin.

ETFs have to keep their BTC to the quantity of their shares, so they cannot sell coins unless their clients sell shares.

Large players are usually not going to take those kinds of chances, but sure, they can engage in various kinds of manipulations by selling on one end and hedging on another side... but they can sometimes get callled out on such a thing and not have enough coins to succeed in such manipulation attempts.