Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:45:24 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:02:02 PM

Let's say for example if we have an average cost of $1k per BTC or maybe even way less, as Jimbo proclaims to have something like 2 digits on his average cost, but anyhow, for the ease of illustration and maybe even to help guys to relate a bit, then maybe if you are currently around 40x in profits and in the whole scheme of things, it does not make very much difference if you ended up selling some of those coins in 39x profits or if you could have had gotten 49x in profits.

Whales are called whales for a reason. They are the one who put there money and trust in Bitcoin when others were laughing on this new discovery. They are called Whales today because they bought Bitcoin at lower prices and are now ruling the market.

I think that even though there could be some overlap, the topic of whales is a bit of a different topic, even though someone who is really able to buy and hold in the real early days (such as in early 2013 or prior to 2013, or even prior to 2012 could have really become a whale with a fairly modest investment level of perhaps less than $10k investment in the real early days, but surely depends on what we might call a whale.. Do we need more than 1,000 BTC or would 500BTC be enough? I know that these numbers are changing, but even by 2013, there would have needed to have been maybe a bit more than $10k invested to get more than 10k coins.. perhaps in the ballpark of $13-$15k. . and sure maybe we could say more than 1,000 coins is a whale, but I am not sure about 500-1,000 coins.. perhaps currently bordering upon whale status.. but not quite there yet.

It could well be that in 10-15 years, then having more than 100 BTC might start to be getting to whale status.. so maybe it partly depends upon when you do the assessment of whale status and it seems to be a bit of a moving target, even though there are ways to attempt to get some kinds of bearing upon making such "whale status" assessments.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:45:24 PM

Those who have bought Bitcoin at average price of 1000$ or 2 digit and still HODLing have patience in true sense.

You are really mixing groups here because there is still going to need to be an assessment regarding how many coins the person bought whether it is in the lower 2 digits, and then if he did not buy many at those prices, then maybe his average cost per BTC is much higher than 2 digits even though he bought some coins in that price range...and then other mistakes along the way could greatly reduce BTC stack size.

So there are several guys in this thread who claim to have gotten quite a few coins in the lower two digits, but then don't really go into detail in regards to the overall cost of their whole BTC stash, and there are quite a few ways of doing accounting, in which if you keep track coin by coin or if you go by your overall average cost per BTC, but then the facts of the matter whether we are going to assess as current whale or future potential whale or even some other present or future classification of sea animal, this will then likely come down to stack size.. maybe even more than average cost per BTC, and I have frequently said that it is better to be a more aggressive BTC buyer who has 100 or more BTC with an average cost of $1k per coin rather than someone who might have been more whimpy and "only" got 21 BTC for an average of $300 per coin, and the same is likely going to play into the future, but it still would not necessarily mean that someone necessarily needs to hang onto all of his coins, especially if he might have more than 100 BTC, but maybe if he wants to get to whale status in 10-15 years or so, then maybe it becomes more important.. but then maybe those kinds of status matters are not going to matter so much, so if the guy with more than 100 coins ends up going below 100 coins and even getting down to 80 BTC in 10-15 years, he might still not be at the status of whale, but maybe in another 5 years or so (15-20 years from now), then maybe at that point, 80 coins might be considered as whale status.. you can look at my entry-level fuck you status chart for projected valuation metrics.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:45:24 PM

I even have a person in my circle who is HODLing and will sell only when Bitcoin touch 100k$.

When you say "sell" sell for what? Why would you want to sell your BTC, unless you are merely referring to maybe shaving some off here and there... no problem with that.

At some point in early 2019, maybe right around the time that the BTC price shot up from $4,200 to $13,880, I had authorized myself to make small sales of BTC, but I was trying to avoid ever having to sell any BTC below $5k, so I still kind of think of $5k as my don't sell below point, so I have to take measures that I am not going to feel any need to sell below $5k. but it seems much better to put yourself in a position of not selling buy either selling in advance or selling way in advance of the BTC spot price dipping to such levels, if it ever is going to get down to those levels again.

It is almost like I have to move up my never sell number, and it seems that my sustainable withdrawal chart (and the website powered by @bitserve) has kind of gotten to the sole of this issue with reduction of withdrawal authorizations that goes all the way to zero once the spot BTC price is more than 35% below the 200-week moving average, and if you look at the historical chart and you plug in November 22, 2022, that would have been the most that the BTC spot price had ever dropped in relation to the 200-week moving average, and the website shows $15,814 which is 34.18% below then 200-WMA of $24,027, but if you put in the actual lowest spot price for the day of $15,479 then you will get 35.5766% below the 200-WMA, which would discontinue the ability to withdraw rather than being able to withdraw 40% of your monthly withdrawal limit if you had been in the range of 30% and 35% below the 200-WMA.

The tool seems to kind of resolve my issue and creates a moving target of "never sell if the BTC spot price becomes more than 35% below the 200-week moving average." Maybe those are buying prices at near or below the 200-week moving average for those folks in their BTC accumulation years, but maybe can also be interpreted as "never sell below" for those who are either in maintenance or in liquidation.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:45:24 PM

Those who are new to the market like me should not lose heart. There are still ample opportunities when we can buy Bitcoin at lower prices.

Of course, folks who are newer to BTC and who are likely either in their accumulation stage or in their early accumulation stage, should be pleased to accumulate during dips, accumulate when the BTC price fails to go up or seems to be static, and it can take a long time to accumulate enough BTC, and maybe you have to spend 10 years or more accumulating before you really start to feel comfortable that you have enough.

I have already made the claim several times in recent times that anyone investing $100 per week for the next 10 years is likely not going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC and maybe not even half of a BTC, but at least there are greater chances of accumulating half of a BTC than a whole BTC, but if you had already gotten started, and maybe you are no spring chicken anymore WatChe. .and congratulations, you are coming up upon your having been registered on the forum for a whole bitcoin cycle.. and if you have been investing into bitcoin for that whole time, then that would have had been helpful too.

Just think about it, a $100 per week invested into bitcoin over the last 4 years would have had resulted in more than 1 BTC (at 1.0505), but if you had been wanting to double the quantity of your BTC holdings in a similar amount of time, you may well need to increase your investment rate by 4x to 6x or maybe even more.

Quote from: Hueristic on Today at 07:20:33 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 07:06:59 PM

Sorry I didn’t post it, hopefully someone else did. Last week before the crash mtgox sent out another email confirming exchange information to prepare for the distribution of Bitcoin to creditors. This to me is the last step before BTC will be distributed. As such, I assume the selling we’re seeing is people getting in front of the gox distribution.

I haven't heard this news repeatedly out of your pie hole for enough years, lets hear all about how it's going to tank us again but this time with some real feeling.

I especially enjoyed the truthfulness of this part, which OgNasty more than deserves.

Quote from: Ambatman on Today at 07:58:13 PM

Usually a dip before the halving.
History like always,repeating itself.

I don't really like your chart. So far we have a 21.5% correction (from $49,048 to $38,505 so far), and it is building in a 42% correction, and I am not sure if that is going to happen, but sure it is possible to happen.