Quote from: HelliumZ on Today at 10:22:05 AM

If Gray-scale does not stop selling bitcoins, the panic market of bitcoins will never end, but if they continue to sell bitcoins, the market is expected to decline more in February than this month. After the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the Bitcoin market fell from $49,000 to below $40,000, which is a 20% drop, according to statistics. However, since the sale of gray-scale Bitcoin, the market has declined by 15 percent, according to statistics. If this selling trend continues in February, the Bitcoin market is expected to fall further below 36,000 and the market is predicted to decline by 7%.

Who cares about those kinds of expectations that may or may not be correct? Hopefully you are not waiting to accumulated, and hopefully you were able to get some BTC in the $38,500 to $40k range that may or may not come back....

You cannot count on such opportunities presenting themselves again, even if they presented themselves earlier, and even if there are expectations for them to present themselves.. so probably part of the main questions for anyone accumulating bitcoin is whether you have enough bitcoin to be prepared for UP in terms of your own financial and personal circumstances, and if you do not then, you have to figure out how much you should buy right now.

and sure if you think that the BTC price might drop more then how much you should wait or maybe if you have cash coming in, then you don't put too much weight regarding whether or how much BTC will drop, you just plan to buy every week or so (depending on your buying timeline) and if a further dip happens hopefully you will be able to buy again during that time... otherwise, you will just need to buy at whatever happens to be the then current price.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 11:42:57 AM

Quote from: HelliumZ on Today at 10:22:05 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 25, 2024, 05:16:49 PM

Quote from: HelliumZ on January 25, 2024, 09:07:07 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 25, 2024, 04:45:07 AM

Grayscale Bitcoin "Trust" is still holding, NOT HODLing, more than 500,000 Bitcoin and they have been selling more aggressively since January 12.
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/50
I believe if the selling contintues, and the market panics, that might cause a pre-halving DIP, no?

As plebs what do we do in this kind of situation? I can't tell you what to do with your money, but if you ask me it's = Buy the DIP, and HODL. Cool

However, panic sales are not a new phenomenon in the Bitcoin market, but rather a well-known phenomenon that occurs regularly. Such panic sales before bitcoin halving have been seen many times in the past and we will face such panic sales before halving in the future as well. Grayscale sells 500k bitcoins in the bitcoin market creating a market bloody moment despite the temporary negative impact on the bitcoin market.This is expected to be the biggest dumping in the Bitcoin market before the halving. This may be the best time to invest in Bitcoin for those who are planning to invest in Bitcoin and hold it for the long term. Therefore, those who can use this panic sale and invest and hold Bitcoin at the highest DIP will have a 100% chance of getting potential profit after the halving.

Is that chart saying that a DIP lower than $30,000 has higher probability than expected? That's currently impossible if you ask me. But if Grayscale continues selling until next month, and it starts a panic, then probably that could happen?

If Gray-scale does not stop selling bitcoins, the panic market of bitcoins will never end, but if they continue to sell bitcoins, the market is expected to decline more in February than this month. After the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the Bitcoin market fell from $49,000 to below $40,000, which is a 20% drop, according to statistics. However, since the sale of gray-scale Bitcoin, the market has declined by 15 percent, according to statistics. If this selling trend continues in February, the Bitcoin market is expected to fall further below 36,000 and the market is predicted to decline by 7%.

That's surely a probability, BUT as plebs what can we actually do while the whales make their moves that move the market either up or down? We can merely try to Buy the DIPs and look for small discounts from the market, OR if we're lucky, a flash-crash happens giving us another Golden Opportunity to buy a very big DIP. No one can predict when it will happen, but there's a higher probability than expected that it might happen.

O.k... sure the BTC price shot up nearly double from its correction down to $25k and then up to $49k.. so yeah.. we can give you that there is a possibility that it could correct back down further than the 21% that it already did down to $38,505, yet you are saying that it is higher than not probability that it will happen, and you seem to not be talking about 51/49, but maybe you are suggesting even higher probabilities that a further correction is going to happen? Are you getting into the 60/40 arena? or even higher than that? You sound like you have assigned even higher probabilities, which might be part of the reason that you did not stack enough sats in the $25k to $26k arena because you were assigning probabilities that were too high to downity scenarios.. that were likely not as high as you were making them out to be.

And, part of the problem is that we just cannot know about these various short term trends, even though we can see a lot of bullish things happening in the BTC market, too... so what are we going to do? wait for dips that don't end up happening? and not being sufficiently/adequately prepared for up? Hopefully anyone who is waiting, is also sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP because expecting more dip, even after getting around a 21% dip seems to be bordering upon greedy.. or just not necessarily understanding the benefits of making sure that you are sufficiently/adequately stacked at all times.

Guys do need decide for themselves - even though I will continue with the assertion that it is problematic to be assigning high values to downity scenarios that may well ONLY be in the ballpark of 50/50 of happening, even if everyone is saying it.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 11:42:57 AM

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust selling + "Higher For Longer" interest rates from legacy = ?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm not saying it absolutely will happen, I'm merely saying that it's an opportunity.

Surely you know that their clients are selling, so they are forced to sell, but that does not mean that others are not buying. Sure some of those who are buying might try to wait a few days before they buy, but they could get themselves into trouble if they are trying to play those kinds of waiting games, so if so many guys here are blaming Grayscale, some of the manipulation likely comes from those who are waiting to buy.. but some of those waiting to buy may well end up getting screwed if others buy before them, and the BTC price discontinues dipping as so many are playing with that kind of fire with one of the greatest assets known to man (if not the greatest, at least in current times).

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

Nobody knows how true this will be, maybe the market will drop to 36k or not. What I also want you to know is that there is a limit that Grayscale can manipulate the price to,

These kinds of assertions of Grayscale manipulation is getting more and more ridiculous to be making those kinds of proclamations.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

and if they continue bitcoin will resist the manipulation and bounce back, leaving them with no option than to allow the price to be natural.

That part is true, and you do not even need to assign causal proclamations to the various ways to keep the BTC price down.. because sometimes the price can ONLY stay down for so long, including when everyone is saying it is going down more and providing some dumb, ill-thought out one sided explanations, then that is part of the ways to try to keep the BTC price down, but it is not necessarily sustainable to keep it down with those kinds information campaigns to try to play sentiment and momentum.. .. and yeah the trend is your friend, but there still needs to be enough behind the momentum, including but not limited to more sellers than buyers.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

As I am typing this post, the price of bitcoin is $41k+, is grayscale no longer selling. Bitcoin price can only be manipulated in a short term and not for long, this is one thing that I love about its design.

Grayscale will continue to sell as long as their clients are selling, but why does it matter? Those coins can be absorbed... but hey whatever, you can focus on the selling all you want and get caught up in the hype.. and hopefully you don't fail to continue to stack and you don't wait too much or maybe even worse either leverage in order to bet on the down direction or to sell to buy back cheaper that may or may not end up happening.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

No need for us to focus on the price movement of bitcoin as investors who are still in their accumulation phase
Instead, is for us to look for a means to make sure that we benefit from the current dip, while we are still DCAing and forget about if it will dip further or not. I am happy that I was able to buy a reason amount of bitcoin yesterday before the price became $41k+ today. What I did was to meet my Boss for 30% of my salary in advance, which will be deducted from my salary in three consecutive months,and I used that money to buy at dip, because I might not be privilege to see that price by ending of the months.

Yep.. those kinds of plays to bet on up may or may not work out in the short-run, but they surely are ways to try to make sure that you are prepared for UP, and 3 months is not really a very long time to have your salary reduced.. and a lot of folks are not in a position that a boss would be willing to engage in such an arrangement.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

I have decided to turn deaf hears on the market currently,

Now you are talking.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

and stay focus on using DCA approach and lump sum to invest at this moment. No one can tell if the market may dip or may not dip, but enjoy the dip while it last.

That seems to be the case.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 02:24:27 PM

Quote from: Ruttoshi on Today at 01:13:48 PM

[edited out]

that's actually a smart move, using 30% of your advance salary to take more advantage of the dip. Because now most people might have sold theirs due to fear. But as you guys said already this best time to keep your DCAing going. Though bitcoin price has fallen by Around 20% since SEC approved the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
Back then most people believe that if ETF approval was approved bitcoin would experience a great surge in price. Yeah and it's did but in a short time. Bitcoin rise to the price range of $48K after the ETF approval. But I didn't put much hope concerning the ETF approval affecting the bitcoin price (rise). All I actually put my Mind on is the upcoming 4th bitcoin halving which is going to take place this year. But still bitcoin experiencing a dip is a good opportunity to buy the dip and hodl.

The BTC spot ETF approval is bullish as fuck for bitcoin, and likely is part of the reason why the price went from $27k to $49k between October and January, even though it was not really certain that the ETF was going to be approved.. even though there were more and more signs of such approval.. no one really knew for sure until it actually happened.. even though there are plenty of folks who were likely buying a lot of BTC between October and January in anticipation of the approval being way greater than not.

The sell offs do not always make sense, except maybe to consider that no assets go straight up and there are going to be waves, including misinformation and various ways that BIGGER players might try to play the waves, and surely even the BIGGER players are not always on the right (profitable) side of the wave.

As smaller players, we should already be expecting that at any time the BTC price can go in either direction, and likely one of the main guarantees in bitcoin is that it is going to be volatile, violent and throw in some surprises, which means that we are not going to know which direction it is going to be volatile, when, how long it will last or how severe it will be. Even though there are claims that "the Adults" and the "BIG" players have entered the room, and so therefore the BTC market is going to get tamed, and they can go fuck themselves with those kinds of proclamations. I will believe it when I see it. Yeah sure the larger the market cap, the more difficult is it to push the BTC price around, but we have bigger, and BIGger and BIGGER players coming into the bitcoin scene who are going to be throwing around larger amounts of capital and perhaps trying to get their way with how they push the BTC price direction, so it is not always going to go how some of the BIGGER players want it to go, and those of us who are smaller players can advantage by already being in before them, but to continue to make sure that we are building our position even if they are trying to manipulate and trick normies out of their cornz.