Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:17:18 AM

[edited out]

Well...I did not see "in the beginning", just "in"...maybe it was written in white letters, I dunno Wink

...but let's back to a more substantial topic.

Yes, my opinion was there to contrast with your description of "wimpy" vs 'aggressive', portraying the whole investment universe as consisting of just two items: fiat and bitcoin, but it simply ain't so.

You were not focusing on fiat versus bitcoin. You were suggesting other ways to possibly outperform bitcoin through equities and really getting distracted.

If we might assume that any brand new person to bitcoin is more heavily weighted in fiat than bitcoin, so part of the reason to start to get into bitcoin and to figure out your bitcoin allocation is to get off of zero.

Sure maybe you come to bitcoin and you are invested in other things too.. but that is not the point when it comes to figuring out whether to get off of zero and then how much to get off zero and if you do decide to get off of zero, then perhaps from where are you going to get your funds and are you going to lump sum into bitcoin or are you going to DCA or are you going to do some mix matching of those two, including buying on dips.

I am not even suggesting that either shitcoins or other investments are completely irrelevant becuase when anyone comes to bitcoin they are coming from a certain place in which they might already have other investments, but even if they do not have much or any other investments they still are going to likely be in a better place if they consider the 9 factors that I like to frequently point out.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:03 AM

These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include:
1)   your cashflow,
2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated,
3)   your other investments (including an emergency fund and/or other purposes that cash reserves might be held),
4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments,
5)   your timeline,
6)   your risk tolerance,
7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),
8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,
9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.)

These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances.

So really I am not even saying that we have to completely stay focused on bitcoin, even though that is the thrust of this thread and the balance that we may well be trying to make..

So when it comes down to it, you seem to be engaging in a bit of a disingenuine distraction or something if you are trying to suggest that my various attempts to categorize whimpy versus aggressive to be anything except for figuring out how heavily any of us might be going into bitcoin versus not going into bitcoin.. and so even historically whimpy strategies have even ended up performing quite well in bitcoin, but since bitcoin has been such an overwhelmingly high performing asset class, the consistently more aggressive strategies have likely paid off better than the consistently whimpy strategies..

and sure you can attempt to be selective regarding if a person is whimpy or aggressive at any particular price point in order to try to argue cases about timing the waves in the market, yet it is still way more difficult to try to employ that kind of a wave timing strategy as compared to just consistently applying some level of investment in a DCA kind of way.. whether someone is pushing their investment by attempting to maximize their discretionary/disposable income or if they are taking a more relaxed or whimpy approach and maybe some of their investments are going towards other investments, but they are still relatively whimpy in regards to bitcoin, so who gives any ratts' asses if they happen to have "reasons" for their choices to be whimpy towards bitcoin and to be distracted into other things.

It likely does not really matter very much when are main discussion has to do with bitcoin.. and surely you should already know that it tends to be o.k. to incidentally talk about various other shitcoins or other investments in this thread, but when you start pumping them, you are both getting off topic and likely annoying people in part because you are off topic, whether they agree with you or not...

Over the years I have repeatedly mentioned some of my various other investments, yet those mentioning are usually attempting to put some kinds of context on the other investments rather than pumping them, and sure at the same time, if any of us already come to bitcoin with various kinds of allocations in our investment portfolio, that might well affect our style of investment into bitcoin. ..,. so maybe sometimes we might have to attempt to figure out how to talk to the points that others might be making in the thread in which they might not have many or any other assets in their investment portfolio.

We have likely seen quite a few statistics showing that many folks (even in supposedly better off countries) do not build up their investment portfolios very much, so maybe they will own some property (mostly owned by the bank) and they might have some form of 401k because it is sponsored through their employer or they could have a pension (largely a disappearing kind of asset), so many folks might come to bitcoin without much or any other investments besides perhaps having some cash savings and a few minor investments... and even with the cash savings, people do not tend to be very good at that either, and so many folks do not have more than 2-4 weeks in float, and when they start to invest they likely are going to need 3-6 months or more of float in their cash reserves in order to not necessarily get forced into selling their investment (whether bitcoin or otherwise) at a time that is not of their own choosing.

You Biodom had already admitted that you have had quite a few years of identifying and fucking around with various markets, and so that is not a common talent that we should expect others to have, and even though surely your knowledge and experiences have tended to be helpful many times in this thread, but still why does it even make sense that you should have much of any expectation that members in this thread should give fuck all shits about various other potential investments as any kind of central tenant or practice in this thread rather than perhaps a kind of incidental side-related discussion?

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

Many people here used a variety of techniques to increase their bitcoin exposure, and straight buying it for cash (without somehow boosting that cash) is less efficient, hence a comparison with three great stocks ( in the prior decade).

That makes little sense and you seem to be making assumptions in regards to starting points.

Are we presuming other members to be invested in other assets or not?

I would concede that some of them are invested in other assets, but if we are talking about bitcoin, we should be trying to talk about bitcoin first, and if they are brand new to investing, then give me some kind of a hypothetical person if you really want to go into the details.

What is his income, expenses, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and the other 9 factors to the extent relevant?

Once he has figured out how much cash he has in hand $6k perhaps? how much disposable income that he has over the next 6 months, perhaps another $6k.. so that is $12k over the next 6 months and $6k available right now.

you want to presume that he is considering whether to put that into other investments rather than bitcoin? Why?

Sure he might have some other concerns regarding from where is he getting his initial $6k, is he drawing it from other assets or does he just have it available. If historically he had been investing into other assets, then is he going to divert that into bitcoin over the next 6 months or what is he going to do? He could borrow against it in order that he could lump sum invest right away, and then he has a loan that he has to pay over the next 6 months or for whatever period the loan might be (of course with service charge and interest).

I think that our main points are still about what he is doing in regard to bitcoin and he can think about his other investments in some other thread since it is not on topic here.

So if he has $100k already in his investment portfolio, then if he figures that he wants his investment into bitcoin to be somewhere between 1% and 25%, given my already description of his cashflow situation, it will likely be easier to reach a 1% target as compared with a 25% allocation.. right around 12% could be achieved over 6 months, but it could take him a bit longer to reach 25%, if that were going to be the target for his initial investment amount, and surely if he is trying to continue to service other investments then that could dilute how much he has available to invest into bitcoin.

It could well be the case that he would like to reach his bitcoin allocation in a fast way, and sure I might say that if he is whimpy in regards to his bitcoin allocation and gravitating towards the lower end of the range (such as 1% to 2% into bitcoin) then it is easy to reach his bitcoin accumulation target and easier to continue with his other various investments, but if he were to be more aggressive and aiming towards the 20% to 25% arena then he might want to focus on getting his bitcoin investment up to its targets rather than getting distracted by other investments, but surely guys are free to do both and to dilute their bitcoin investment.

And then once he gets to whatever his target amounts are then at that point he could decide how to go forward and the extent to which he might reallocate from time to time.

I am also saying that there are circumstances in which a guy might not have other investments and he is just starting with bitcoin and cash, and there is nothing wrong with spending 1-10 years just building your bitcoin investment prior to even considering diversifying into other investments, so how much time a guy might spend ONLY invested in bitcoin might also have to do with not only how aggressive he might be in regards to investing into bitcoin but also how aggressive he is overall in regards to investing, so a guy who invests only 10% of his income/expenses into bitcoin may well take 10 years to get his investment up to 1 years salary, and a guy who invests 25% may well get there in 4 years or less and a guy who ONLY invests 1% might take 100 years to get to 1 year. Of course, performance of the underlying investment can change these timelines in either direction.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

Btw, nobody or almost nobody would probably be buying btc at $500K as investment (when it is at 10 tril). Well, maybe pension funds will, expecting a steady 5% yearly return, haha.

The same could have been said when we were in the mid $200s for most of 2015. In mid-2015 many folks would have made the same assertion that nobody will be buying BTC above $5k (that's a 20x price appreciation) or above $25k (that is a 100x price appreciation), but here we are, and there are plenty of people buying bitcoin, even though bitcoin has not even really grown very much between 2015 and now.. We still do not have a lot of adoption, but the BTC price is up more than 100x from what it was in 2015.

$500k is ONLY around a 12.5x price appreciation from here, and so I would presume that there is not going to be any shortage of buyers in the $500k + price arena, whether we are talking about 10 years from now or maybe even if we are talking about some shorter period of time, including that BTC spot prices may well get to $500k plus this cycle, which might even be greater than 8% odds that BTC prices will trade somewhere between $500k and $1 million this cycle (by the end of 2025 or perhaps into mid-to late 2026).^**

**By the way, I had to look at my earlier prediction layout to make sure that I was giving higher odds this time than I had given the last time around, which I had then (in late 2021) put at 7.75% odds of $450k to $650k by the 1st quarter of 2023.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

Therefore, we have, basically, a 10-12X investment opportunity in the next, say, 6-8 years (at 45% annual growth for 10X in 6 years and about 36% if 12X in 8 years), entirely doable,

Great. At least you agree that it is completely doable.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

but it ain't life changing unless you invest $200-300K right now or within a few short months.

That is not true. It does not have to be life changing in any kind of transendental way, and fuck off with your idea that anyone has to have lump sums in order to make a difference.

In my earlier post, I already gave an example of some relatively poor person who might invest in the next 10 years and accumulate around 2 bitcoin and maybe they invest another 8-10 years after that and get another 0.5 BTC... that could be life changing as fuck for someone who ends up getting to his own fuck you status or even to a western level of fuck you status even though maybe he did not even have a western level of resources and income.. .. but he had persistency, consistency, and even relative aggressiveness and determination.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:29 AM

Even with this level of investment, you would barely achieve fu status in 8 years and only IF inflation cooperates..

There is no need to get into too many details of the debasement of the dollar, since we should be attempting to value these kinds of matters in real terms rather than nominal terms, and yeah the ongoing debasement of the dollar could cause getting there to become more rapid.. but we should be attempting to price in terms of hookers, lambos, blow and other real world goods/services rather than getting stuck on dollar denominations that might be misleading and distracting to what we are wanting to say.

By the way, I will agree that front loading is likely to be better than DCA in terms of overall performance, but front loading is not always possible and/or practical, and even if we go with your example of someone with $250k right now, we likely need to know more in regards to from where is he getting that $250k?

If the ONLY thing that he has is $250k and it is for the next 2 years, and then maybe after 2 years he would resume having $1k per month of disposable income, then maybe he should still consider the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips. The default position might be to put 1/3 into each category, but given where we are at, we might want to put 70% to 80% of that in right now and divide the other 20% to 30% into allocations for DCA and/or buying on dips. So yeah, people are going to have more options when they have $250k in hand versus if they might ONLY have $1k per month of disposable/discretionary income, then they don't really have any choice to lump sum invest.

I find it a bit disingenuine to presume away some of the main problems that normal people have and that is that they do not tend to have much lump sum or other investments upon which they can draw. Sure I am more than willing to work with you in regards to the hypotheticals in which guys have lump sums available to them, even though they very likely to be way less representative of the actual circumstances of real people and real members of this forum.

I have also frequently been accused of being too elitist because I tend to want to focus on $100 per week as a starting investment allocation into bitcoin, when many forum members are saying that they are struggling to put together $10 per week in order to invest into bitcoin and still be able to not be pushing themselves too much, and yeah I agree that many of those guys who are not even able to figure out ways to get at least $10 per week into bitcoin, they are likely not going to end up getting to western level fuck you status on any near time scenarios, yet if their investment timelines are long enough, they still may well be able to get to fuck you status in their own locations and very much improve their living and their options even if they do not quite make it to entry-level fuck you status.

We do not have to actually get to entry level fuck you status in order to have our lives greatly improved by investing into bitcoin and delaying some of our gratifications, if we are able to accomplish such. Perhaps even with a long enough time horizon the guys struggling to put together $10 per week for investing into bitcoin, with a long enough time horizon they still might make it to western level fuck you status including possibilities that they might be able to cut more to their expenses (or more importantly increase their income). Most likely an overwhelming number of normal people never really get to fuck you status and even in their retirement they greatly suffer from difficulties with whatever income sources that they might have.. so just making it to fuck you status is surely an accomplishment, but also if someone starts out from zero and they end up getting portfolios that are more than 21 milllion satoshis or even 1-2 BTC or more, they still may well end up greatly empowered from that even if they might have timelines that are 20-40 years into the future, and those are not unusual timelines for people to have when it comes to investing.

Look you and i have been in bitcoin for 10 years, and many times, you have claimed that you are willing to work many more years, but if we might have had 10-20 years of investing experience prior to getting into bitcoin, then someone who is brand new to bitcoin, may welll have 30-40 years of investment life in front of him, which could end up accomplishing a lot in terms of the benefits of being involved in bitcoin as compared to not being involved in bitcoin, especially if he iis able to continue to build his investment portfolio, even if it might be seeming to be small amounts.. and don't get me wrong, I am not advocating whimpy investing into bitcoin, rather I tend to advocate to be as aggressive that you are able to be without devolving into gambling or otherwise putting yourself in risks of getting yourself reckt (or failing/refusing to continue to preserve and build your BTC investment portfolio.. even if it seems slowly and maybe you are ONLY increasing your stash by 10 or 20 thousand satoshis at a time).