Quote from: CODE200 on Today at 03:50:50 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2024, 08:45:48 PM

Quote from: tranthidung on December 26, 2023, 05:24:56 AM

Bitcoin market cycle is about 4 years but the map shows us an interesting fact, if hodlers can hold their bitcoins more than 5 years, they surely get profit so far.

There is no guarantee to get a profit, even if the chart shows historically what the profit levels have been.

Definitely no guarantee of profit especially if you didn't hodl or buy any bitcoin before the price of bitcoin reached an all time high besides not investing though I don't see how it doesn't guarantee a bitcoin hodler any profit when the chart is consistent that at this X period is the time where the price likely to hit it's all time high or something.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2024, 08:45:48 PM

On the other hand, if you buy and the BTC price mostly just goes up from the point of your purchase, then maybe you just sit on your investment for as long as you believe is necessary until you cash out.. in the event that you don't create some longer term BTC portfolio plans that might involve cashing out incrementally rather than concluding that you are justified to cash out a bunch at one time, even if you conclude it to be sufficiently profitable for your own likings.

If you don't include buying back after cashing out then hodling until the desired price shows is going to be the most sufficient of them all and if you don't sell at an increment then wouldn't it mean that you're getting more profit compared to someone that's profiting albeit in small amounts because they sell a small part?

Don't get me wrong. I am surely for the idea of ongoing investing into bitcoin and long term holding, yet you are not going to get me to agree that there is any guarantee that your BTC will be profitable, even though historically all coins held at least 5 years have ended up being profitable.

I also recognize and appreciate the asymmetric nature of bitcoin, in that there are a lot of folks who have accumulated bitcoin for years, and of course there are a lot of folks who have been holding bitcoin for many years and have gone through many doublings of their coin value which has a certain kind of compounding and/or exponential effect on those kinds of BTC holders, so many times we are thinking small potatoes if we are merely considering whether some day coins might be profitable in stead of the longer that people have been holding their coins the more likely that they are going experience many doublings and ongoing compounding effects.. while at the same time there are no guarantees.

I personally started out in bitcoin when prices were around $1,100 to $1,200 in late 2013, so I frequently considered my BTC holdings in terms of the average cost per BTC, and I likely brought my average cost per BTC down to quite a bit below $500 per BTC by the time late 2016 had come, but at the same time I made some mistakes along the way including having some sim-swap problem, so I frequently like to just proclaim that my coins have around a $1k per coin average cost, even though there coudl be other ways that I could frame the matter or even taking some coins and grouping them with other coins that were bought around the same time and various kinds of subdividing of my BTC stash; however, I am not even sure how useful that is, even if the the tax man frequently forces us to jump through those kinds of accounting hoops.

In any event, many of us who have been a long time in bitcoin have also experienced upside and compoundings (and exponential growth) of the value of our BTC holdings, but you are still not going to get me to suggest that any particular coin that is bought now, in the future or even past coins are guaranteed to be in profits in the future or even including that past coins that are currently in profits are going to continue to be in profits, even if there is a whole hell of a lot of cushion between current price and the cost basis.

On the other hand, I do have a lot of reliance in the 200-week moving average, even with my own calculation of personal strategies and even attempt to provide frameworks for how to think about the value or our BTC stashes (looking at my ideas behind sustainable withdrawal).. and so in that regard, the 200-week moving average has always gone up, and its worst performance period was between about June 2022 and November 2023, even though it still went up 20% on an annualized basis during that time (as you can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart). Another thing is that the 200-week moving average is not guaranteed to continue to go up even though right now it is going up around $25 per day and likely to on track to having at least a 30% annualized performance for our current six month period between December and May..

So even though I consider BTC going up as not guaranteed, I still consider that any of who have stacked enough BTC could likely employ BTC stack management practices that allow us to have good chances of being able to withdraw BTC at higher rates than we would be able to sustainably withdraw in traditional investments, so I largely use 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal, even though I throttle those values if the BTC spot price start to get to become less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average... so surely I consider there to be a lot of power and value in terms of building a BTC stack, but you are still not going to get me to claim that there are guarantees of UPpity BTC price moves, even if the 200-week moving average (which is a lagging indicator) has never (so far in BTC's price history) gone lower than 20% annualized.