Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:21:27 AM

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I've not even figured out what to use my holdings for when I've reached my 20 years target or why I am even doing this, but I'm just enjoying the learning process.

Of course, you could invest for a specific purpose (something that you would like to buy at some point in the future), or you could invest in order to have an income stream that you could draw upon in the future, whether it be to completely support your lifestyle or if it might be used to supplement your already existing income. There could be goals to stop working or there could be goals to be able to choose the kind of work that you would like to do. Money and/or an income stream has the potential of increasing quite a few options and even over a long time horizon, especially if you manage it well, which truly are the kinds of things I try to argue within my sustainable withdrawal framework.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:21:27 AM

Of course, you have to engage whatever your investment plan with the resources that you have available, and I have no problem with a potential whimpy start to investing in bitcoin.. yet at the same time, many of us likely realize that there is a certain benefit that comes from front loading a bitcoin investment, especially if bitcoin might be postured in such a way that it is potentially entering into a bullish price period... but of course, we do not know, yet one of your scenarios should likely account for the possibility that BTC prices could go shooting up from here rather than either staying flat, going up and down but largely flat or down or going down... so there could be a problem with any scenario that starts out whimpy with an expectation of increasing next year.. since the BTC cycle has been 3 ups and one down, 3 ups and one down.. yet even the pattern is not guaranteed, but we are only into the 1 up from 2023, so it could well be that we have two more ups prior to the down.. and yeah of course, not guaranteed, but if you are not financially and psychologically prepared for that kinds of scenario and you end up going into bitcoin too whimpily, it could cause you to end up FOMOing in at a later date rather than anticipating such possibility of 2 more ups and then a down from the start.

I think the best way for me to back up such a whimpy plan is to have another senerio that I would also invest in or put efforts in as you said if things go sideways, if I could remember correctly in your recent contributions here you once said something about putting our efforts in terms of odds of a senerio actually occurring and put our efforts likewise, like if it has a 1% chance of happening we also put 1% effort towards it, so we could take actions that are proportional to the possibility of thigns that could happen In a particular frame, so since in my case I'm think of front loading with expectations of a bullish that i feel would occur anytime soon, which might or may not happen, since we have known that everything happens based on probability.

You can approach your strategy in such a way that it attempts to prepare you for a variety of scenarios, and part of your preparations would have to do with your position size and how much you might be holding back and keeping in your emergency fund, your reserves and your float, and sure after you have built bitcoin to a certain size of let's say 1-2 years of your annual expenses, then you might start to invest in other things too.. and no one can really say what might be good investments for you besides bitcoin and cash, and if you are not really sure about it, then perhaps you would not need to make any adjustments - even though at some point you might start to feel that you have too many eggs in one basket, so you might feel that you need to research into the matter of figuring out how you might invest in some other kinds of ways, and hopefully balancing your supplemental behavior sufficiently in order to not get distracted into something that might ONLY need a 5-10 allocation. that might even take you several months or even several years to build a position in some areas that are meant to supplement your BTC and cash holdings... For example, you might start to think that you have to hold so much cash and maybe you should put some of that cash to work in other kinds of things, whether equities, properties, commodities, bonds, or something else.. and i am not referring to shitcoins, even though some people might consider something that seems shitcoin related as a place to put some value.. hopefully no more than 10% of their bitcoin holdings..

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

And this senerios I would be making this time are based on facts instead of my normal assumption senerio where I'm just preparing ahead of what might happen in the market, but since I'm still an early investor knowing my major aim is to accumulate more bitcoin than anything else, yet I just still feel taking advantage of the possibility that thigns might go bullish is not such a bad idea, but to be safe an not to FOMO I should have another senerio that would be backed by facts like the 2 more ups and 1 more down, but I think I have to take some time to learn about this first.

Of course, if you prepare for several scenarios, but then something other than your preparation ends up happening, then you are going to feel disappointed that you were not financially and/or psychologically prepared for such scenario... . so personally, I am not saying to put a lot of effort into your preparations for every possible scenario, but sometimes some ways that you prepare could actually end up simultaneously preparing you for several kinds of scenarios. .. and yeah, sometimes you have to go through some of the scenarios or to go through some of the preparations in order to some of the ideas to make sense because sometimes preparing in the hypothetical does not really make as much sense until after you might have taken some action and interaction and specifically witnessed how some of your balancing is going...

So for example, if you speculate that after a year in bitcoin, you would have invested $5k into bitcoin and $5k into your emergency fund, reserves and float, and so after the year goes by you can review your various actions month by month and you can see how much you were able to accomplish. Were there some shortfalls? were there some windfalls? Did you make some mistakes? Should you make some adjustments? Have your conditions changed in terms of your income and expenses and how does your investment into the various parts of you investment portfolio affect your comfort level. Are you going to do the same thing the next year or are you going to make some adjustments.

Let's say in year two you decide that you are going to keep your emergency fund, your reserves and your float between $4k and $7k, so there are ways that you can play around with that, but since you are already within your target range, maybe the next year you end up investing nearly $10k into bitcoin and then at the end of the year your emergency fund, your reserves and your float is close to $6k.. and you figure that even though you have build the overall amount in both sides of your investment fund, but you can see that your BTC has gone up and down in value.. and maybe it could have even ended up going up several times.. but how much it goes up or down could affect your strategy too... but then you realize that through the year your emergency fund moved between $3k and $5k, your reserves moved between $0 and $3.5k and your float also moved between $0 and $4k.. so you might even see at that at certain times of the month you had total balances of funds that was close to $8.5k but that was usually after getting paid and then there were certain low points every month too.. and sometimes you were down to around $4.5k. so you can see patterns.. and you can see how your bitcoin holdings did too.

Maybe after assessing your portfolio each year for 5 years, then you get to year 5 and you see that you ended up investing close to $50k into bitcoin, but maybe the value of your bitcoin had been as high as 5x higher than your investment amount and other times it had been in the negative and maybe it is 3.5X higher at the end of the 5 years, and you look at its value in terms of the 200-week moving average and you compare the 200 week moving average to the spot price... surely we would not be speculating that you had been able to accumulate a whole bitcoin in ONLY 5 years, so maybe you had only accumulated a bit more than 0.5BTC, and also during that whole 5 year period, you had continued to play around with your emergency fund, your reserves and your float, and you consider that you had fluctuations between $4k and $12k in those funds... but you end the 5 year period with your emergency fund, your reserves and your float that are around $7k.

In the end, specifically what happened in various parts of your funds and how you handle those happenings can not only be tests for you, but also inform you regarding how to proceed and maybe to correct some of the mistakes that you made in the process.. and it is difficult to really know in advance, even if you had projected a variety of possible ways that these matters can go, the actual specifics in performance in regards to where you are at at any time that you are making adjustments to your plans can also make differences in regards to what is reasonable to do. And, yeah, maybe I painted a rosy picture, but you had ended up making some fairly BIG mistakes at various points, and maybe your own particulars end up not looking as good as how I had outlined your particulars to be.

Some specific actions can sometimes make pretty big differences in outcome, and sometimes you don't realize at the time, so for example, if you had some kind of an event or "opportunity" along the way, so you decided to sell some of your BTC in order to take advantage of a "business opportunity," and sure the investment could have worked out or it might have caused a lot of your potential progress to end up going down the drain, and we are not necessarily going to know in advance regarding how you are going to deal with various choices and whether your actions are going to end up improving your performance or making your performance worse, and really if you are saying that you just want a successful life then maybe we might not be able to measure your progress at year 5 and we have to see how some of this plays out at year 12 or year 16... to see where you are at at that time... even though you can make various assessments along the way that are based on specifics regarding what you are doing, and various things happening in the markets and also things happening with your income, expenses and your investment choices.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

And also before now I didn't actually consider thigns like 4 year cycle history or bitcoin occurrence, and I think these are things I should consider too, and also keeping in mind that they are also possibility that they could reoccur and I can make senerio around them too.

So far they have occurred, so they should be accounted for, but they are not guaranteed to continue... but you might feel pretty dumb if you made plans that did not even account for them continuing to occur. .and personally I consider them to be one of the most important things in bitcoin, especially since 2018/2019 these have been framed as 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer)

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:21:27 AM

Some people have a disposable/discretionary income that happens to be real high like 50% of their total income and others might have only 5% 10%, so they will be struggling more in terms of having funds available to aggressively invest into bitcoin and/or to build their emergency fund.

I think anyone could build this up a little by chunking down our Monthly expenses more, I've tried living on a budget, but the only Pitfall is I have to retain myself for some enjoyment just to meet up with my investment

Even if you invest a small amount, you might feel that you are missing out on having some fun... and those are some of the trade offs in regard to investing and part of the reason that so many folks fail/refuse to save/invest because they have trouble delaying some of their gratification. It is tempting to spend money when you have it rather than setting it asside for extended periods of time, and that is also one of the reasons that even if people invest, they still fail/refuse to put themselves into a situation in which they are able to profit from the compounding and exponential effect.. because they end up cashing out too much too soon because they cannot help themselves when they want to buy that new car, go on that vacation, buy that nice house, invest in that business.. etc etc etc.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 08:51:19 PM

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Quote from: Justbillywitt on Today at 05:41:46 PM

Bitcoin investment and hodling is for all both the knowledgeable, semi knowledgeable and those who are not very knowledgeable. Provided you know how to buy bitcoin from a cex or Dex and also know that you are to keep your wallet key private, then you are good to go. What is important in bitcoin investment is just following the established principles that are required to successfully hold your bitcoin for the number of years you intend holding. There is no special knowledge needed to own a bitcoin, as you are not feeding the bitcoin or solve any mathematical problems before holding bitcoin. Buying and holding bitcoin is not a rock science that only genius can do, it is open to all. What is important is the ability to hold your bitcoin for long.

I agree with you, investing in bitcoin is not rocket science, even an uneducated person can do it and still be successful, its all about your ability to hold without selling out earlier or cause not panic, and that's why we need to know how to keep ourselves from such situations by building ourselves in a way that touching our bitcoin holdings is not an option and accumulating untill we have reaches the time we set before we maybe start adding more strategies.

Sounds like you understand the idea, so it is a matter of putting theory to practice and trying to have fun with it, even though it can take a long time to play out, it can be fun too.

Think of the guy who invested $7.9k between 2018 and 2020 (investing $50 per week), he might have had felt kind of bad during 2018 and even into 2019 and even during parts of early 2020 he felt pretty bad during the March 2020 crash..

So by the end of 2020 he had accumulated a whole BTC, and he started to feel really great during 2021, but maybe not so great during 2022, but during 2023 and into early 2024 he is feeling pretty damned good again, and even if he continued to invest at the same $50 per week rate during the whole time and maybe in the second 3 years he only accumulated 1/3 of a bitcoin but he is currently at 1.34175 BTC with nearly $16k invested, so he is feeling pretty good about all of it, and sure maybe he was not consistently $50 per week, so if his specific performance had varied from what he could have had gotten in employing a DCA strategy, then maybe he needs to reconsider if he should change his strategy - however at the same time, if he feels that he is on a good path, he might just keep with $50 per week or maybe he might feel that he is doing well enough in his investment he might want to increase his weekly amount to $100 per week or some higher amount, even though he probably would have had been better to increase earlier on, but sometimes people will kind of just get caught in a pattern and even some people use automatic weekly buys rather than doing them manually, and either way has its advantages and disadvantages, my personal preference is manually in order to engage with and to monitor my investment more, but some people don't want to (or can't) have that much involvement with their investments..