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This proves but one thing, it shows that there's a lot of nuance involved in deciding how to choose one's investment approach. It's not as simple as choosing one approach over the other, it's about balancing risk and reward, and finding the right mix for your personal situation. It's also very important to consider your long-term goals and how the different approaches might impact your ability to reach those goals.
The Lump Sum and DCA debate is often framed as an either/or proposition, but there are actually a lot of different options in between. It's possible to split the difference and do a combination of both strategies. For example, someone could make a large lump sum investment but then use DCA to gradually increase their position over time or they could alternatively do a smaller lump sum investment and then use DCA to add to their position if the price goes down. Because either ways one should really be prepared for everything when investing in Bitcoin, it's good to be optimistic about the price of Bitcoin going up, maybe due to your research or some circumstances that may propel it to go up, some people even make important financial decisions that would affect them just because someone else says so. Just being optimistic isn't enough, one have to also prepare for the worse too, prepare for an alternate measure, just incase things doesn't go as expected.
You keep framing a dichotomy between lump sum and DCA, yet even buying on the dip has a lot of potential for importance.. and I hate to narrow down too much in regards to when buying on the dip might be a better frame, except I think it should be a strategy for someone who largely already has prepared for up rather than someone who is not adequately prepared for up.
From my perspective, the person who employs buying the dip without adequately preparing for UP is either employing a kind of gambling strategy and/or a waiting strategy.. and waiting strategies kind of annoy me because they are likely not bullish enough on bitcoin (from my perspective).
Going back to the $100k or the $113k in 6 months example, like I mentioned such a person could front load a bit (such as $70k) and then dedicate the remainder towards DCA and buying on dips and then reassess after 6 months. So if the remainder 43.5k is divided into 2, then each of the portions would be $21.5k, so DCA could be $827 per week for the next 26 weeks, and then the buying on dip portion could perhaps be structured to go down to around $31k (which is right around where the 200-week moving average is right now... so if the guy is a bit anxious that dips might not happen, maybe he ONLY goes down to $35k.. and yeah we already know that right now it could well be possible that sub $40k might never be reached again; however, if the person is a bit more comfortable with his level of front loading, then he could structure his buying on dip to go down to $28k or something like that. maybe the guy who decides to ONLY go down to $35k might choose buy on dips every $500 dip starting at $46,500 (presuming that his lump sum of $70k had been executed at $47k), so then that would be 23 buy orders which would be $935 each ($21.5k / 23). Alternatively, if the guy is quite satisfied about his level of preparation for up, then maybe he starts his buy orders at $44.5k, and then has them every $1k down to $28.5k, which would be 16 buy orders of $1,344 ($21.5k /16).
My main point is just to show that buying on dips can have quite a lot of importance, especially for the guy who is already prepared for UP, but at the same time is wanting to structure some advantages in case the BTC price runs against him. .and yeah, he is not going to make any kind of killing off of buying on dips because he likely is losing way more value in his holdings from the BTC price going down rather than UP, but at the same time, he ends up employing some tactics to lower his cost per BTC, while still holding and still investing and refusing to sell, by buying at various price points on the way down in accordance with his own views of his situation that includes some calculations of odds of where he believes the BTC price is and where it might go and without being so cocky as to presume that he knows the answer but at the same time putting his money where his mouth is.
Wow, this is a really insightful comment and I think you've covered some important points here. I completely agree that there are different ways to approach investing in Bitcoin, and it's important to consider factors like cash flow, personal risk tolerance, and portfolio composition when making investment decisions. It's also worth remembering that investing in Bitcoin is still a relatively new and highly speculative investment, so it's important to approach it with caution and to be prepared for volatility. But it's clear that you've done your research and thought carefully about the best strategy for you, and I think that's a great approach.